2nd Burt Awards & Top 10 of 2014

       Tonight we will find out what the most prestigious voting body in the world thinks. But here is something I'd like to think as a recap of the last year. It's nice to sit down and see what you liked and maybe loved. The choices are sometimes controversial, so were they last year. I got some people wondering why I chose Judi Dench as my best actress. I choose what I liked the most, don't give a damn how it looks or sounds. If I feel good about my picks, then I give out the awards, otherwise I might just wait till tomorrow and copy the Academy's choices. It's about being fair to your taste.

   So here they are, my picks, some of them will overlap with the Academy (a lot I hope), and some aren't even nominated. Here they are. The 2nd Annual Burt Awards with the Top Ten movies of the year 2014.

1. Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)

2. Whiplash

3. Boyhood

4. The Grand Budapest Hotel

5. Nightcrawler

6. Selma

7. Gone Girl

8. Edge of Tomorrow

9. Inherent Vice

10. Interstellar

   I was really debating whether 10 should be Interstellar or Into the Woods. I liked both, but in the end the spectacular vision of Christopher Nolan prevailed. 

   What I liked was that many films (each of the above) started a discussion. Gone Girl must've been the most talked about movie of the year. The problems it tackled, the themes it portrayed. Birdman and its open for interpretation ending was something to be talked about. Whiplash and the character of Fletcher, and by extension the ending sequence. Boyhood enchanted me. It felt so real, the story was so incredibly honest, and sometimes gripping. Edge of Tomorrow was the most awesome movie of the year, being the best blockbuster action film. Amazing. Each of them offered something, and each will stay with me. 

    Birdman, however, was the one that I knew would be No1 or 2 right after I saw it. It blew my mind, it's something that every filmmaker wants to achieve. Everything about it was so damn perfect. It was that or Whiplash, but Birdman prevailed having its strength in the screenplay, the sole tiny flaw that Whiplash had. Birdman is a film I will surely come back to in years to come.

    Having announced my Best Picture of the year, here are the remaining categories.

    The winners are in YELLOW & BOLD  and below are the runners-up in alphabetical order.

BEST DIRECTOR

Alejandro G. Innaritu (Birdman)

Wes Anderson (The Grand Budapest Hotel)

Ava DuVernay (Selma)

David Fincher (Gone Girl)

Richard Linklater (Boyhood)

Why: The way the amazing idea was executed was stunning and how it all worked together like a perfect puzzle made it impossible not to choose Innaritu. DuVernay directed one of the most thrilling and breath taking scenes I've seen all year. Linklater made something so honest that it just moved you. The scene at the table when the drunk husband slams dishes was so powerful. I mentioned him here because of the quality of his work, not the commitment that shamefully appears to be the reason for his frequent votes (as we found out from Scott Feinberg's "Brutally Honest Oscar Ballots".

BEST ACTOR

Jake Gylenhaal (Nightcrawler)

Benedict Cumberbatch (The Imitation Game)

Ralph Fiennes (The Grand Budapest Hotel)

Michael Keaton (Birdman)

David Oyelowo (Selma)

Why: Gylenhaal just gave me the chills. He was so scary that I literally was debating whether or not to shit my pants. That eventually came with Steve Carell, but that's not in this category. The chemistry between Gylenhaal and Russo was amazing. They both wanted more, only he had a plan and was organized and she blindly and greedily demanded more just to please herself. They both were crazy, and for showing us in such a powerful way Gylenhaal deserves to be here. I couldn't go without mentioning my second favorite of the year - Ralph Fiennes. So funny and good. Oyelowo - electrifying and charismatic. Keaton - satirically funny and profound. Cumberbatch - touching and breath taking.

BEST ACTRESS

Rosamund Pike (Gone Girl)

Jennifer Aniston (Cake)

Marion Cotillard (Two Days, One Night)

Julianne Moore (Still Alice)

Reese Witherspoon (Wild)

Why: Well there just was no other option. This was Pike from the very beginning. I walked out of the theatre knowing she would be the one I'd choose. I thought about it once more when I saw Cotillard, she was my No2. Back to Pike though, she was equally as scary as Gylenhaal, so very convincing. There was no showy performance, it was just raw and blood chilling life. "That's marriage" she said, which had to be the best scene of hers in the movie. She was the best and if you think she wasn't, well... "No way, baby. I'm it."

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Edward Norton (Birdman)

Josh Brolin (Inherent Vice)

Steve Carell (Foxcatcher)

Marco Perella (Boyhood)

J.K. Simmons (Whiplash)

It could have gone three ways for me. Carell, Norton or Simmons. They are were great. Carell and Simmons scared the shit out of me. Carell creeped it out more, and Simmons... well he haunted me for some time. "Not quite my tempo". But Norton playing the celebrity, the sum of everything I always loved about him. There is one line that absolutely won me over. "Play with my balls". Perfect and amusing.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Rene Russo (Nightcrawler)

Patricia Arquette (Boyhood)

Carrie Coon (Gone Girl)

Emma Stone (Birdman)

Naomi Watts (Birdman)

As I said before the chemistry with Gylenhaal, which is best seen in the restaurant scene, was the best thing about the film and it's thanks to Rene Russo too. As for her performance solely, the "killer moment" was when she scream at Lou Bloom for not getting her the footage she wanted. She is so addicted from information and lives on a basis of ratings that she explodes when someone fails, and by extent she does. The two ladies from Birdman are both phenomenal in their own ways. Stone is perfect in her monologue (shoutologue, really) but her best moment is on the roof when Norton tells her that Keaton hit him in the face. "Oh my God. Are you fucking kidding me?". Watts is very delicate and subtle, beautifully capturing the fragile soul behind a debuting Broadway actress' ego.

BEST SCREENPLAY

Birdman

Gone Girl

The Grand Budapest Hotel

Inherent Vice

Nightcrawler

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Birdman

Foxcatcher

The Grand Budapest Hotel

Ida

Nightcrawler

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Interstellar (Hans Zimmer)

Birdman (Antonio Sanchez)

The Grand Budapest Hotel (Alexandre Desplat)

Gone Girl (Atticus Ross & Trent Reznor)

The Theory of Everything (Johann Johannsson)

BEST ENSEMBLE

Birdman

Boyhood

The Grand Budapest Hotel

Inherent Vice

Into the Woods

Gone Girl

That's all. We shall see who wins tonight, I hope my picks at least to some extent overlap with the Academy's (although some categories are locked). Good luck to whoever you're rooting for! Thanks for a great and unpredictable season, see you after the big night.

BURT mizaki

Final Oscar Predictions

      The big moment is here. The moment when couple months of work goes down the drain. We all worked to figure out the logic in al of this and for what? Did we get anything right? Is the Best Picture race really that close? Or was Birdman, or whoever ends up winning, supposed to win by a wide margin, so wide that it had no threats? We don't know what happens behind the scenes, we only get a small two (sometimes three) word hint at what the Academy thought. A single name. No numbers. We need to speculate, guess, predict. And we all have something to do, thankfully.
      This is arguably the most exciting moment in a pundit's or blogger's "Oscar season". Deciding on who will win. We get to feel the masters of the Academy, because our predictions hold such power, that until the names are actually read out, whatever we predict is the winner for us. Then comes the ceremony. And all goes to hell. All of the work. We get it right, we get it wrong, we have to wait for another 12 months. The excitement level is so high (for some) that it might feel like an actual high. Then the bubble bursts and the anticipation grows slowly for 12 months. Of course we get to live our lives in the meantime, but if you look at the calendar shutting life out, and counting the movie days, the premiers and awards.
       A whole year lead up to this, and I am ready to screw up and go down below 20 correct. Last year I scored a good 21 out of 24, but to my unfortunate surprise I found out that I was among the 90% of predictors to get that exact score. But 2013 was a year that saw no upsets. All the frontrunners won and I got 2 wrong just because I predicted a surprise. This year, however, is a completely different story. There are so many uncertain categories that the predictions below probably went through a lot of editing before finally being published.
     And I have waited a long time to see a Best Picture race like this. Thank you for the guilds! And director too! And actor! And screenplays! And sound! And editing! Thank you! I'll probably tai that back if I get all those wrong. Anyways predicting this year has been a privilege with the highlight of my accuracy being the 4th best user on Gold Derby to predict the Golden Globe nominees. Oh shut up and let me enjoy my little success. Baby steps.
    Also I would like to say that preceding the Oscar ceremony I will post the 2nd Burt Awards along with my Top 10 of the Year 2014.

   Here are my final (!) predictions for this year. Let's take a look (and by let's I mean me too, because I have no idea what I'm gonna write in as winners):




 BEST PICTURE: 


Will win: Birdman
Could win: Boyhood
My 'Oscar Race' winner: Boyhood
Should win: Birdman
Should have been here: Gone Girl


 BEST DIRECTOR: 

Will win: Alejandro G. Innaritu (Birdman)
Could win: Richard Linklater (Boyhood)
My 'Oscar Race' winner: Richard Linklater
Should win: Alejandro G. Innaritu
Should have been here: Ava DuVernay (Selma)


 BEST ACTOR: 

Will win: Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything)
Could win: Michael Keaton (Birdman)
My 'Oscar Race' winner: A tie between those two
Should win: Michael Keaton (Birdman)
Should have been nominated: Jake Gylenhaal (Nightcrawler)


 BEST ACTRESS: 

Will win: Julianne Moore (Still Alice)
Could win: Rosamund Pike (Gone Girl)
My 'Oscar Race' winner: Julianne Moore
Should win: Rosamund Pike (Gone Girl)
Should have been nominated: Jennifer Aniston (Cake)


 BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: 

Will win: J.K. Simmons (Whiplash)
Could win: Edward Norton (Birdman)
My 'Oscar Race' winner: J.K. Simmons
Should win: Both are worthy
Should have been nominated: Josh Brolin (Inherent Vice)


 BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: 

Will win: Patricia Arquette (Boyhood)
Could win: Emma Stone (Birdman)
My 'Oscar Race' winner: Patricia Arquette
Should win: Both are worthy
Should have been nominated: Rene Russo (Nightcrawler)


 BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: 

Will win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Could win: Birdman
My 'Oscar Race' winner: Birdman
Should win: Again, both, but really all of them (Foxcatcher maybe the least for me)
Should have been nominated: Selma


 BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: 

Will win: Whiplash
Could win: The Imitation Game 
My 'Oscar Race' winner: The Imitation Game
Should win: Whiplash or Inherent Vice
Should have been nominated: Gone Girl


 BEST FILM EDITING: 

Will win: Boyhood
Could win: Whiplash
Should win: Whiplash
Should have been nominated: Edge of Tomorrow


 BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY: 

Will win: Birdman (Emmanuel Lubezki)
Could win: Ida (Lukasz Zal & Ryszard Lenczewski)
My 'Oscar Race' winner: Birdman
Should win: Birdman, Ida or Mr. Turner
Should have been nominated: Selma


 BEST ORIGINAL SCORE: 

Will win: The Theory of Everything (Johann Johannsson)
Could win: The Grand Budapest Hotel (Alexandre Desplat)
My 'Oscar Race' winner: The Theory of Everything
Should win: Interstellar (Hans Zimmer)
Should have been nominated: Birdman


 BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM: 

Will win: Ida (Poland)
Could win: Leviathan (Russia)
Should win: Ida
Should have been nominated: Two Days, One Night


 BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN: 

Will win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Could win: Mr. Turner
Should win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Should have been nominated: Birdman


 BEST COSTUME DESIGN: 

Will win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Could win: Into the Woods
Should win: Into the Woods


 BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING: 

Will win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Could win: Guardians of the Galaxy
Should win: Both are worthy
Should have been nominated: Into the Woods


 BEST VISUAL EFFECTS: 

Will win: Interstellar
Could win: Guardians of the Galaxy
Should win: Interstellar
Should have been nominated: Edge of Tomorrow


 BEST SOUND MIXING: 

Will win: Whiplash
Could win: American Sniper
Should win:  Birdman


 BEST SOUND EDITING: 

Will win: American Sniper
Could win: Birdman
Should win: Birdman
Should have been nominated: Whiplash


 BEST ORIGINAL SONG: 

Will win: "Glory" from Selma
Could win: "I'm Not Gonna Miss You" from Glen Campbell... I'll Be Me
Should win: "Glory"
Should have been nominated: "Yellow Flicker Beat"


 BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE: 

Will win: Citizenfour
Could win: Virunga


 BEST ANIMATED FEATURE: 

Will win: How to Train Your Dragon 2
Could win: Big Hero 6
Should have been nominated: The LEGO Movie


 BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT: 

Will win: Parvaneh
Could win: The Phone Call


 BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT: 

Will win: Crisis Hotline Vets: Press 1
Could win: Joanna


 BEST ANIMATED SHORT: 

Will win: Feast
Could win: The Dam Keeper





So that's it! Some of them are ballsy, but hey it's an unpredictable year, the most unpredictable in my Oscar watching career. Good luck with your predictions and have a nice Oscar Sunday!

See you tomorrow for the 2nd Burt Awards.

                            Burt MIZAKI                         




   

A Look at the Actors. Is Keaton 2012's Streep?

     Only four days to go and the only precursors left are the below-the-line guilds and the Spirits on Saturday. Will the 4 acting winners repeat themselves on Oscar night like last year? That would require Michael Keaton taking the Oscar. I'm not predicting it to happen but I sure would like it too.

      Remember in January 2012 when Meryl Streep was the frontrunner for the Oscar because it's a major biopic and she is so overdue (btw it's kind of amazing to reach a point in your career when you're a two time Oscar winner and be overdue. Congrats)? Then she beat Viola Davis at the Globes and solidified her status. But then she lost two major precursors in a row, the BFCA and, more importantly, the SAG. And Viola became the frontrunner. But then Meryl won the BAFTA and some thought it might be a sign. Most of the pundits, however, took it as rewarding a British figure biopic (the screenplay and supporting actor were nominated too). In the end almost all of them ended up predicting Viola Davis for the win. I however stayed with Meryl and it paid off. A similar scenario seems to be unfolding here with Michael Keaton and Eddie Redmayne. Although it was Keaton who took the BFCA and Redmayne who won the BAFTA, they switched places around the same time Streep and Davis had. Another difference is that people are actually cheering for Keaton here, whereas three years ago, Viola was the favorite. Both british figures were neglected by the American pundit society. This time one is the frontrunner. So I ask myself: Should I go back to Keaton? 

    The reason I probably went with Streep back then, was that I didn't follow the race too much, and wasn't all that aware that Davis was going to win. I just rooted for Streep because, well, one year someone had to wait for their turn for Streep to get her third Oscar. It's just a damn shame it wasn't Sandra Bullock in 2010. Good God Streep was great as Julia Child. And Bullock's presence among the nominees was arguably enough. If not too much. But back to why I predicted Streep. It was the unexpected virtue of ignorance, I guess. 

     What makes Keaton and Streep so close too? Their veterans. Such a win carries the weight of a whole career. 

       So who should I choose? Who will I choose? Who will be chosen? 

       I should choose Keaton, and I know it. I will probably go with Redmayne, but it kills me. Will be chosen? God damn it. Probably Redmayne, but if Keaton is, and I don't end up predicting him, I'm gonna go crazy probably. Is there any movie with Meryl Streep and Michael Keaton?

      To relish on the sweet ignorance that rose my predictor's pride above others', I'll wait until Saturday, when I put up my final predictions. For now, I'll stay the boring predictor who just goes with the frontrunner. But hey, I might end up predicting Keaton. If they are giving Best Pic to Birdman, they might as well go all the way. And if I do predict him and Redmayne wins AND Boyhood takes top 2 prizes.... then I'm fucked. And this year will mark the worst prediction score of mine ever. It would be funny though, to get all the rest right.

Without further ado, here are my "4 days left" predictions:

BEST PICTURE:

1. Birdman (Alejandro G. Innaritu)

2. Boyhood (Richard Linklater)

3. The Grand Budapest Hotel (Wes Anderson)

4. The Imitation Game (Morten Tyldum)

5. Selma (Ava DuVernay)

6. American Sniper (Clint Eastwood)

7. Whiplash (Damien Chazelle)

8. The Theory of Everything (James Marsh)

BEST DIRECTOR:

1. Alejandro G. Innaritu (Birdman)

2. Richard Linklater (Boyhood)

3. Wes Anderson (The Grand Budapest Hotel)

4. Bennet Miller (Foxcatcher)

5. Morten Tyldum (The Imitation Game)

BEST ACTOR:

1. Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything)

2. Michael Keaton (Birdman)

3. Bradley Cooper (American Sniper)

4. Benedict Cumberbatch (The Imiation Game)

5. Steve Carell (Foxcatcher)

BEST ACTRESS:

1. Julianne Moore (Still Alice)

2. Rosamund Pike (Gone Girl)

3. Marion Cotillard (Two Days, One Night)

4. Reese Witherspoon (Wild)

5. Felicity Jones (The Theory of Everything)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:

1. J.K. Simmons (Whiplash)

2. Edward Norton (Birdman)

3. Ethan Hawke (Boyhood)

4. Mark Ruffalo (Foxcatcher)

5. Robert Duvall (The Judge)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:

1. Patricia Arquette (Boyhood)

2. Emma Stone (Birdman)

3. Keira Knightley (The Imitation Game)

4. Laura Dern (Wild)

5. Meryl Streep (Into the Woods)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:

1. The Grand Budapest Hotel

2. Birdman

3. Boyhood

4. Nightcrawler

5. Foxcatcher

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:

1. Whiplash

2. The Imitation Game

3. Inherent Vice

4. American Sniper

5. The Theory of Everything

That's all for now. All the categories by Friday and finals on Saturday. This season flew by like a rocket, eh? Nothing boring about it now. It was for a moment though.

BURT mizaki

Birdhood in for Boyman

   So it did happen, Birdman DID win the DGA award. That there was a clear signal "Birdman has just knocked Boyhood out of its way". But then came the BAFTAs and it appeared that Boyhood hadn't fallen out quite. It was still dangling there. And then came a blow for Birdman. We all realized it won only 1 award. One that it was sure to win anyway. Yet somehow Birdman survived the attack on its status as the new frontrunner. Oh those Brits...
   So who is the frontrunner? It's Birdman ladies and gentlemen. But don't go cheering (or crying) just yet. Boyhood is very much in the race. Like in my last post Boyhood had "the smallest of edges", Birdman has now the same kind of advantage. The smallest one. Both films can win.
   Birdman is the film that I finally feel relaxed to predict as the winner. Because it's not just speculation. The Guilds are very very reliable precursors. Especially PGA. And apart from the fact that I'd prefer Birdman to win, I feel relaxed because while Boyhood was the frontrunner I had this feeling as if it wasn't solidified as such. I was left waiting for something to happen, and just when I gave up, it did. I come back from winter vacation, I start to catch up on a full week of Twitter (had no internet), and BOOOM! Birdman had won the PGA, the SAG and was the new frontrunner. Alas so was Redmayne, but let's leave that delicate subject aside.
   Let's just go back in time for a minute here, folks. Back in spring 2014 after the last Oscars, we looked into this year's Oscars. And we had a hard time figuring out Boyhood's case. What I thought was that it was too small to go all the way to the Oscars, but if it actually did, then it would win. If it managed to hold on for a full year, then it would be "12 Years a Slave's" successor as the Best Picture winner. But now I feel I was wrong about it all. Sure, it can still win, in a "the small indie that could" kind of way, it won the BAFTA, the Globe. But Birdman's sweep overlaps with the Academy's membership largely. On the other side, though, BAFTA is the group similar to the Academy in size.
   Oh what the hell I'm just gonna post predictions, write something more sophisticated and profound during the weekend.
Here they are, the predictions, with only 11 days left to the Oscars.




BEST PICTURE:

1. Birdman (Alejandro G. Innaritu)
2. Boyhood (Richard Linklater)
3. The Grand Budapest Hotel (Wes Anderson)
4. The Imitation Game (Morten Tyldum)
5. Selma (Ava DuVernay)
6. American Sniper (Clint Eastwood)
7. Whiplash (Damien Chazelle)
8. The Theory of Everything (James Marsh)



BEST DIRECTOR:

1. Alejandro G. Innaritu (Birdman)
2. Richard Linklater (Boyhood)
3. Wes Anderson (The Grand Budapest Hotel)
4. Bennet Miller (Foxcatcher)
5. Morten Tyldum (The Imitation Game)



BEST ACTOR:

1. Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything)
2. Michael Keaton (Birdman)
3. Bradley Cooper (American Sniper)
4. Benedict Cumberbatch (The Imitation Game)
5. Steve Carell (Foxcatcher)



BEST ACTRESS:

1. Julianne Moore (Still Alice)
2. Rosamund Pike (Gone Girl)
3. Marion Cotillard (Two Days, One Night)
4. Reese Witherspoon (Wild)
5. Felicity Jones (The Theory of Everything)



BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:

1. J.K. Simmons (Whiplash)
2. Edward Norton (Birdman)
3. Ethan Hawke (Boyhood)
4. Mark Ruffalo (Foxcatcher)
5. Robert Duvall (The Judge)



BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:

1. Patricia Arquette (Boyhood)
2. Emma Stone (Birdman)
3. Keira Knightley (The Imitation Game)
4. Meryl Streep (Into the Woods)
5. Laura Dern (Wild)



BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:

1. Birdman
2. The Grand Budapest Hotel
3. Boyhood
4. Nightcrawler
5. Foxcatcher



BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:

1. Whiplash
2. The Imitation Game
3. American Sniper
4. Inherent Vice
5. The Theory of Everything



That's it for now,

 BURT  MIZAKI 

A race dominated by one race

   A lot has happened since my last post. Namely the Oscar nominations were announced, shamefully snubbing Ava DuVernay, David Oyelowo, Jake Gylenhaal and one could argue that Jennifer Aniston should be up there. It all looked settled that day, January 15th. But the guilds sure did throw a curveball. PGA came on the 24th announcing their winner... BOOM! Birdman? Wow, I thought, that's fantastic for the race, right? Or is it? And one day later the actors spoke out naming... Birdman their top prize winner. But the most interesting event of that evening was yet another shameful decision. Eddie Redmayne taking Best Actor over Michael Keaton. They were all very good, but, good God, Keaton deserved it! What we got out of that, however, is an actual race. Is Boyhood still the frontrunner? Is it Birdman? Or could something else squeak through like The Imitation Game? Or The Grand Budapest Hotel?
   So what does Redmayne winning mean to us? Well let's go back to 2003 when Johnny Depp won the award for Pirates of the Caribbean. And then the Academy made another silly decision by awarding Sean Penn for Mystic River. Thinking that they should probably follow the SAGs from now on to avoid any future mistakes they chose the same actor for the next 10 years. What they didn't count for is that sometimes SAG would get it wrong. McConaughey? Good, but not the best. And now Redmayne.
       I tend to be a strong believer in statistics, but only when I think they are useful and make a precedence. Like the unison in which SAG and the Academy choose their leading men. It's been 10 years in a row for crying out loud! Who knows when it will stop? Probably when SAG chooses some clearly un-Oscar type role. Or even better a role that is not nominated at Oscars, or is in another category (supporting). Or could it only be an even 10 years for them? Now the Oscar will go to Keaton and we'll have 10 years of not matching? Let's wait for the BAFTAs, but if there is a statistic I believe in (especially after last year), and do so very carefully, I'll give the edge to Redmayne for the time being. He was the favorite for the BAFTA even before the SAG awards. He will win it, giving him another precursor. He won the Globe, SAG. Keaton won the Globe and BFCA (x2) for now. However if he was to win at BAFTA, then he is the frontrunner, having beaten Redmayne in the latter's territory. So I am not sure where this puts us. In deep shit probably. And I love it, it's interesting, only I hope it turns out to be Keaton in the end.
         The season is in its full speed, the guilds roll out, but do they matter that much? What does matter when the final Oscar ballots are mailed out? We shall predict the winner if we try to think like voters.
        I prefer Birdman to Boyhood as a film, and would certainly cast my ballot in their favor, however multiple factors come to mind, even if you don't want them to. "LET THE BEST ONE WIN!" we keep telling ourselves. But we do know that that's a lie. Involontarily we choose the best one using merit as only one of the factors. For example, I'll vote for Birdman because it's the best. I'll give it a second thought because I'd love to see Boyhood win, the little film that could. The Grand Budapest Hotel because it would make my eyes pop out and it is such a great and watchable film. Selma because it got shut out and Whiplash because I loved it, and its small. Or say you don't like Boyhood OR Birdman. You like Whiplash the most. But you know it won't win, so you don't "waste" your vote on it and choose one of the films that have a chance, the one you dislike less.
        And remember they are WHITE, av. 62 years old and they are conservative. Oh, just look at Clint Eastwood. Did he vote for Ava DuVernay? Did some writer, that hasn't got a screenwriter's credit in 25 years and is way past the point in life when he should retire from active Academy membership, vote for Gillian Flynn?
      The Academy is a brutal and disfigured creature that runs around the streets and preaches of being a testament to democracy. So let's remind ourselves what the "D" word means. If a candidate has more votes than his opposition, even a SINGLE VOTE, then he is proclaimed the best. The winner. If Eddie Redmayne has one single goddamn vote more than Michael Keaton, we will talk about his Hawking portrayal as the year's best for many years to come. Not knowing that Michael Keaton was one (out of 6000) votes away to be co-best. Isn't democracy a bitch?
     So using that political knowledge let's name the Academy for what it is. If the majority of members are men, then the Academy is masculine, if they're white, the whole Academy is white and if averagely the age is 62, well then the Academy is considered to be a 62 year old white man. Look for diversity of races and sexes there. Yeah, the nominees say it for themselves. They're all white, and women are only in their exclusive categories. And a handful of female producers. The choice of the Academy will we corresponding to what the grout in fact is. It will be a choice that is worthy of a 62 year old white guy.
      The only question is, who does the white man choose? The obvious contender that comes to mind is the most Oscary choice, The Imitation Game. Well it's about a gay, that can't possibly strike a good note with some of those chaps over at the Academy. So let's look at what the others say is best. Boyhood and Birdman. And a little bit of Budapest. Every one of them is about men. Is it safe to say that the industry will choose only from the pool of films about men?
      I think that the problem with Birdman winning is that for many it will be difficult not to vote for Boyhood out of respect for the fact that is was filmed throughout 12 years. That is a strong factor, and is Boyhood's strongest weapon in a fight where the jurors are old white men. Birdman however is an insider of the industry. The film is about relevancy and the industry loves feeling relevant, so when they make a good movie about them - well, they eat it up. PGA did. And that was huge for Birdman's cause. But is it enough? They still need that crucial BAFTA to solidify themselves as frontrunners. Until then, Boyhood has the smallest of edges.
      And finally, now that we know we have a race, can we say that that's good? It's interesting, yes, but it can be harmful, oh yes. It comes down to four options.
  Number one: The race is fair and the best win it all, all the way up to the Oscars.
  Number two: The race is not fair, and still the same people win it all.
  Number three: The race is interesting, and the right people win.
  Number four: The race is interesting, and the wrong people win.
We have to possibilities of a fair race, which is what we want to have, right? One is boring, no surprises, and the other one is an interesting one, which is what we hope to be facing. The ugly truth is however, that it is extremely rare to have an interesting and fair race. In an interesting race, other people win all the time, but in a fair race, there is one that is the best and he should be winning. Translating to my choices, I think it's good for the RACE itself that somebody else won the Best Actor award but on the other hand it's bad because it shrinks the chances of the rightful winner. So if the price of an interesting race is that the best are to lose, than no thank you.
   Then you fall into a paradoxic circle, because when races are boring, there really isn't much to cover. So bloggers will shut up, and who's gonna bitch about the academy then? The bloggers feed on controversy, surprises and shockers. So my existence as a blogger is possible thanks to the source of my very misery. The source being, that rightful winners, sometimes lose. And we can work on a race then. And the pundits and bloggers have a race of their own. Who predicts the best? Because if there are surprises, some guess some not, giving an opportunity for the best and luckiest to win. And we celebrate our victories while crying over the defeats of the best. Not always of course, because we can predict against the best. It's all bitchy medium, the internet is, but we love it for the same exact reason we hate it. As well as the industry and the "Old white man".
     Summing it all up: The industry to be fair, must look broader beyond what pleases them and is appropriate for them. The Academy must look up from the old white male nose to see all that the diverse talent has to offer. And THAT will surely make it so much more interesting. And we the bloggers are occupied. And happy that everyone is recognized fairly. It's a dream of mine.

P.S. Forgot about one important thing. If Birdman wins D.G.A., meaning Innaritu does, then BP is theirs. That comes February 7th, brace yourselves.

P.P.S. I am disappointed (not surprised however) that the Academy (aka white old man) chose American Sniper as their BP nominee instead of other worthy choices like GONE GIRL (for chrissake) or Into the Woods. And of course Foxcatcher. And even though people seem to be okay with it, I am deeply let down by the fact that Bradley Cooper for the second consecutive year is nominated not having deserved to be.

Now to advance from all that profound bitching, let's see how the race look in accordance to the above:


BEST PICTURE

1. Boyhood (Richard Linklater)
2. Birdman (Alejandro G. Innaritu)
3. The Grand Budapest Hotel (Wes Anderson)
4. The Imitation Game (Morten Tyldum)
5. American Sniper (Clint Eastwood)
6. Selma (Ava DuVernay)
7. Whiplash (Damien Chazelle)
8. The Theory of Everything (James Marsh)


BEST DIRECTOR

1. Richard Linklater (Boyhood)
2. Alejandro G. Innaritu (Birdman)
3. Wes Anderson (The Grand Budapest Hotel)
4. Bennett Miller (Foxcatcher)
5. Morten Tyldum (The Imitation Game)


BEST ACTOR

1. Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything)
2. Michael Keaton (Birdman)
3. Benedict Cumberbatch (The Imitation Game)
4. Steve Carell (Foxcatcher)
5. Bradley Cooper (American Sniper)  (Geeez!)


BEST ACTRESS

1. Julianne Moore (Still Alice)
2. Rosamund Pike (Gone Girl)
3. Marion Cotillard (Two Days, One Night)
4. Reese Witherspoon (Wild)
5. Felicity Jones (The Theory of Everything)


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. J.K. Simmons (Whiplash)
2. Edward Norton (Birdman)
3. Ethan Hawke (Boyhood)
4. Mark Ruffalo (Foxcatcher)
5. Robert Duvall (The Judge)


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Patricia Arquette (Boyhood)
2. Emma Stone (Birdman)
3. Meryl Streep (Into the Woods)
4. Keira Knightley (The Imitation Game)
5. Laura Dern (Wild)


BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. Birdman
2. Boyhood
3. The Grand Budapest Hotel
4. Foxcatcher
5. Nightcrawler


BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. The Imitation Game
2. Whiplash
3. American Sniper
4. The Theory of Everything
5. Inherent Vice



That's all for now, see you after the DGAs which I assume will go to Innaritu. But they might throw us back to reality by choosing Linklater. Watch out for Morten Tyldum.


Burt Mizaki

DGA, BFCA & Oscar Nominations

    The guilds have all spoken, as far as nominations are concerned. In 10 out of 11 both "Birdman" and "The Grand Budapest Hotel" were mentioned which bodes well for them before nominations morning. Surprisingly (or nor) the DGA did not mention Ava DuVernay. As you might have noticed, I am a big fan of the work she did on Selma, so I was more than a little disappointed. Again we say: no screeners. Or other factors. Didn't happen, so what. It's a 14000 member group that consists of all the TV sitcom directors too. Those are their choices. And they chose Clint Eastwood for "American Sniper". Oh for heaven's sake, not only is the movie bad, the direction is nothing to be admired. Jeeeez those directors. Anyways if you're interested in this shit and the DGA snub and what not, here is Scott Feinberg's (Hollywood Reporter) take on the now infamous snub --> http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/dga-noms-story-behind-snub-763334

    The Globes have been given out, and what can I say. Great monologue, but not enough Tina & Amy? Too long speeches maybe and had to cut material. Or those walks to the stage through side balconies and etc. The winners - meh, no surprises... Except for Grand Budapest! Wow, that was a fun thing to see. And although I did predict Selma and Ava, Boyhood sweeping didn't come as a shock. It just solidifies it as the frontrunner. And he's running away... So yeah those ballsy predictions of mine didn't exactly go well. Anyway, let's go ballsy with the Academy. I never learn, I guess.

  Oh and one more thing on the Globes -> Not that I want to brag, but I do need to. I found out that I am ranked 4th on Gold Derby for predicting 87% of the Globes nominees correctly, back in December. Just found out. Better score than any other editor. Best of them, Anne Thompson 82%.

   In other stories, Thursday comes with a double treat. First in the morning we get to see who got raped by the respective branches in their categories. Someone will. And I fear it's Ava. Then later in the evening we get a televised awards show! Yeeey! The Critics' Choice Awards. Ohhhh... Not that I complain that it's so boring but... These are critics, and yet every year they do EVERYTHING to predict the Oscars. To feel relevant in the race. They don't want to be pushed aside and not be cared about. So they go with the flow, popping a surprise here and there (Philip Seymour Hoffman in 2013).

   Back to Oscars then. Question one: How many BP nominees? Oh chill out it's NINE. Or eight. Who  cares in the end? I'd rather see nine, because I want to see Gone Girl make it. Couple more question marks like if Selma is embraced. If yes then where (pic, director, actor, song --- oops, editing?)? If Aniston's Cake is watched and embraced? Emma Thompson was in a similar situation last year. Was in a movie that wasn't particularly well liked, and that cost her a nomination. I do hope she gets in though. Otherwise paves way for Amy Adams (God that Globe, oh why?). And the big question if Steve Carell gets nominated in Lead or Supporting? Or neither?

   I must say, some of the nominees I just try to imagine on that screen during the announcement. Of I can't picture the contender's face there, or the movie's title, than I don't write it down. Old fashioned predicting. So let's get to that. THE FINAL OSCAR NOMINATIONS PREDICTIONS (all categories):



BEST PICTURE

1. Boyhood (Richard Linklater)
2. Birdman (Alejandro G. Innaritu)
3. The Imitation Game (Morten Tyldum)
4. The Grand Budapest Hotel (Wes Anderson)
5. Selma (Ava DuVernay)
6. The Theory of Everything (James Marsh)
7. Nightcrawler (Dan Gilroy)
8. Whiplash (Damien Chazelle)
9. Gone Girl (David Fincher)
+MIGHT American Sniper (Clint Eastwood)



BEST DIRECTOR

1. Richard Linklater (Boyhood)
2. Alejandro G. Innaritu (Birdman)
3. Wes Anderson (The Grand Budapest Hotel)
4. Ava DuVernay (Selma)
5. Morten Tyldum (The Imitation Game)
+Dan Gilroy (Nightcrawler)



BEST ACTOR

1. Michael Keaton (Birdman)
2. Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything)
3. Benedict Cumberbatch (The Imitation Game)
4. Jake Gylenhaal (Nightcrawler)
5. David Oyelowo (Selma)
+Ralph Fiennes (The Grand Budapest Hotel)



BEST ACTRESS

1. Julianne Moore (Still Alice)
2. Rosamund Pike (Gone Girl)
3. Reese Witherspoon (Wild)
4. Felicity Jones (The Theory of Everything)
5. Jennifer Aniston (Cake)
+Amy Adams (Big Eyes)



BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. J.K. Simmons (Whiplash)
2. Edward Norton (Birdman)
3. Ethan Hawke (Boyhood)
4. Mark Ruffalo (Foxcatcher)
5. Steve Carell (Foxcatcher)
+Robert Duvall (The Judge)
 


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Patricia Arquette (Boyhood)
2. Meryl Streep (Into the Woods)
3. Keira Knightley (The Imitation Game)
4. Emma Stone (Birdman)
5. Rene Russo (Nightcrawler)
+Jessica Chastain (A Most Violent Year)



BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. Birdman
2. The Grand Budapest Hotel
3. Boyhood
4. Nightcrawler
5. Selma


BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. The Imitation Game
2. The Theory of Everything
3. Gone Girl
4. Whiplash
5. Wild


BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1. Birdman (Emmanuel Lubezki)
2. Mr. Turner (Dick Pope)
3. The Grand Budapest Hotel (Robert Yeoman)
4. Interstellar (Hoyte Van Hoytema)
5. Ida (Ryszard Lenczewski & Lukasz Zal)


BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1. The Theory of Everything (Johann Johannsson)
2. The Imitation Game (Alexandre Desplat)
3. Interstellar (Hans Zimmer)
4. The Grand Budapest Hotel (Alexandre Desplat)
5. Gone Girl (Trent Reznor & Atticus Ross)


BEST EDITING

1. Birdman
2. Boyhood
3. Whiplash
4. The Grand Budapest Hotel
5. Gone Girl


BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1. The Grand Budapest Hotel
2. Into the Woods
3. Mr. Turner
4. Interstellar
5. Unbroken


BEST COSTUME DESIGN

1. Into the Woods
2. Mr. Turner
3. The Grand Budapest Hotel
4. Exodus: Gods & Kings
5. Maleficent


BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

1. The Grand Budapest Hotel
2. Guardians of the Galaxy
3. Maleficent


BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1. "Glory" (Selma)
2. "Lost Stars" (Begin Again)
3. "Big Eyes" (Big Eyes)
4. "Everything Is Awesome" (The LEGO Movie)
5. "For the Dancing and the Dreaming" (How to Train Your Dragon 2)


BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

1. Ida (Poland)
2. Leviathan (Russia)
3. Wild Tales (Argentina)
4. Force Majeure (Sweden)
5. Timbuktu (Mauritania)


BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1. The LEGO Movie
2. How to Train Your Dragon 2
3. Big Hero 6
4. Boxtrolls
5. The Book of Life


BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1. Citizenfour
2. Life Itself
3. Keep on Keepin' On
4. Last Days in Vietnam
5. Finding Vivian Maier


BEST SOUND MIXING

1. Into the Woods
2. The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies
3. Birdman
4.American Sniper
5. Fury


BEST SOUND EDITING

1. Whiplash
2. Interstellar
3. Into the Woods
4. American Sniper
5. The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies


BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1. Interstellar
2. Dawn of the Planets of the Apes
3. The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies
4. Guardians of the Galaxy
5. Godzilla


BEST ANIMATED SHORT

1. Feast
2. The Bigger Picture
3. Footprints
4. Symphony No.42
5. The Dam Keeper


BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

1. Carry On
2. The Phone Call
3. Boogaloo and Graham
4. My Father's Truck
5. SLR


BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

1. The Lion's Mouth Opens
2. Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1
3. One Child
4. White Earth
5. The Reaper



What an excruciating activity. Gosh. See you after "Cruel Morning".

BURT mizaki

First big awards show, let's go crazy!

   I don't want to brag right from the start but I did quite well predicting the Globe nominees nailing 3 or 4 major categories. So the time has come to look at the winners. Let's have them predicted! Most of you probably know that many leak stories (of course) have been "leaked". That "Selma" being on the Best Drama winner page. Then the site actually ranking their nominees on the site. They weren't in alphabetical order, apparently "random". Well funny that it was so random and yet each category "randomly" started with the actual frontrunner to win. But do those leaks really mean something? We had that Anne Hathaway leaked win in 2009, and two days later Kate Winslet won, so go figure. By the way 2008 was a year of leaks anyway. If you remember the supposed Oscar winners list being leaked.
   Let's hope the fun isn't spoiled and I do, more than ever, hope for a race shift. I do love Boyhood, but I'd love to see Selma take that Best Drama and Director prize. For other wishes I would enjoy Interstellar taking score, Stone nabbing supporting, Jake Gylenhaal or David Oyelowo in Lead Drama, and it would make my day if Jennifer Aniston won in her category. That would give the shake up this race so desperately needs.
   Anyway, nothing that happens tomorrow, affects the Oscar nominations, the voting on which ended on Thursday. So here we are, Globes tomorrow and Oscar noms in 5 days. Who was on top this week definitely took advantage of that. This was the week to have the momentum going. I'm a bit concerned by the Selma controversy possibly hurting the film. Might Ava DuVernay, possibly the best director of the year, have not gotten enough of votes because of that? If she wins the Globe yet fails to get an Oscar nom, I swear to God I'm switching to Globe coverage instead of Oscars.
   I'm in a ballsy "no guts no glory" mood, so let's get to the predictions. And by the way. Why not a Selma sweep to shut the controversy up? I think I'd cry if it happened. I would love the HFPA forever.


BEST PICTURE DRAMA

Boyhood (Richard Linklater)
Foxcatcher (Bennet Miller)
The Imitation Game (Morten Tyldum)
Selma (Ava DuVernay)
The Theory of Everything (James Marsh)

Will win: Selma
Could win: Boyhood
Should win: Selma


BEST PICTURE COMEDY OR MUSICAL

Birdman (Alejandro G. Innaritu)
The Grand Budapest Hotel (Wes Anderson)
Into the Woods (Rob Marshall)
Pride (Matthew Warchus)
St. Vincent (Theodore Melfi)

Will win: Birdman
Could win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Should win: Birdman


BEST DIRECTOR

Wes Anderson (The Grand Budapest Hotel)
Ava DuVernay (Selma)
David Fincher (Gone Girl)
Alejandro G. Innaritu (Birdman)
Richard Linklater (Boyhood)

Will win: Ava DuVernay
Could win: Wes Anderson
Should win: Ava DuVernay


BEST ACTOR DRAMA

Steve Carell (Foxcatcher)
Benedict Cumberbatch (The Imitation Game)
Jake Gylenhaal (Nightcrawler)
David Oyelowo (Selma)
Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything)

Will win: David Oyelowo
Could win: Eddie Redmayne
Should win: David Oyelowo or Jake Gylenhaal


BEST ACTRESS DRAMA

Jennifer Aniston (Cake)
Felicity Jones (The Theory of Everything)
Julianne Moore (Still Alice)
Rosamund Pike (Gone Girl)
Reese Witherspoon (Wild)

Will win: Julianne Moore
Could win: Jennifer Aniston
Should win: Rosamund Pike


BEST ACTOR COMEDY OR MUSICAL

Ralph Fiennes (The Grand Budapest Hotel)
Michael Keaton (Birdman)
Bill Murray (St. Vincent)
Joaquin Phoenix (Inherent Vice)
Christoph Waltz (Big Eyes)

Will win: Michael Keaton
Could win: Ralph Fiennes
Should win: Both of them are perfect to win


BEST ACTRESS COMEDY OR MUSICAL

Amy Adams (Big Eyes)
Emily Blunt (Into the Woods)
Helen Mirren (The Hundred Foor Journey)
Julianne Moore (Maps to the Stars)
Quvenzhane Wallis (Annie)

Will win: Emily Blunt
Could win: Helen Mirren
Should win: What a relatively poor line up but I guess Emily Blunt. Or Moore. Or Mirren. The latter would be a fun surprise.


BEST SCREENPLAY

Birdman
Boyhood
Gone Girl
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game

Will win: Birdman
Could win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Should win: Birdman


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Robert Duvall (The Judge)
Ethan Hawke (Boyhood)
Edward Norton (Birdman)
Mark Ruffalo (Foxcatcher)
J.K. Simmons (Whiplash)

Will win: J.K. Simmons
Could win: Edward Norton
Should win: J.K. Simmons


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Patricia Arquette (Boyhood)
Jessica Chastain (A Most Violent Year)
Keira Knightley (The Imitation Game)
Emma Stone (Birdman)
Meryl Streep (Into the Woods)

Will win: Patricia Arquette
Could win: Emma Stone
Should win: Emma Stone


BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Birdman (Antonio Sanchez)
Gine Girl (Trent Reznor & Atticus Ross)
The Imitation Game (Alexandre Desplat)
Interstellar (Hans Zimmer)
The Theory of Everything (Johann Johannsson)

Will win: Birdman
Could win: Interstellar
Should win: Interstellar


BEST ORIGINAL SONG

"Big Eyes" by Lana Del Rey (Big Eyes)
"Glory" by John Legend and Common (Selma)
"Mercy Is" by Patti Smith (Noah)
"Opportunity" by Greg Kurstin, Sia Furler, Will Gluck (Annie)
"Yellow Flicker Beat" by Lorde (The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 1

Will win: "Glory"
Could win: "Yellow Flicker Beat"
Should win: Any of the two


BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

Force Majeure (Sweden)
Gett: The Trial of Vivane Amsalem (Israel)
Ida (Poland)
Leviathan (Russia)
Tangerines (Estonia)

Will win: Ida
Could win: Force Majeure
Should win: Ida


BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Big Hero 6
The Book of Life
The Boxtrolls
How to Train Your Dragon 2
The LEGO Movie

Will win: The LEGO Movie
Could win: How to Trail Your Dragon 2




Ok that's all for now, see you after the Globes and we'll see if my gutsy choices will have paid off.


BURT MIZAKI