As this year is much more unpredictable than 2013, it should be an interesting season to cover.
After each predictions I post, I will be adding points to the leaderboard. A contender that gets to be No. 1 on the predictions will get 5 points to the leaderboard. Second place gives 4 points, 3rd place - 3 points, 4th place - 2 points and 5th place - 1 point. The best picture category is a different thing. Since there are up to 10 nominees, we will start at 10 points and go down to 1 (i often put up only 9 films, but that doesn't make any difference).
Also next to the contenders' name I will write the number of times it was on the top of its category in a prediction.
E.G. --> 1. Birdman - 25 pts (1); The place in the leaderbord, Title, Amount of points, Number of predictions on top.
Additionally each winner of a critics' group (NY, NBR, L.A.) award will be given 2 points. I will award each contender 3 points for winning a Golden Globe or a Critics' Choice Award (In the Critics Choice - I do not include the "Comedy" categories as they are additional ones), and 5 points to those who take away a SAG award (Esemble victory rewards best picture). The same with the DGA, PGA and all the real awards. The point distribution is in such a way because the Globes create momentum but their voting membership does NOT overlap with the Academy whereas the Guilds do - majorly. Then the BAFTA award winners also are rewarded with 5 points. In the writers' race, the WGA gives 5 points, however the Scripter Awards (USC) give 3 points, as they create less momentum.
Here is the OSCAR RACE:
BEST PICTURE (8 Predix):
1. Boyhood - 87 pts (4) (NYFCC, LAFCA, HFPA, BFCA, BAFTA)
2. Birdman - 76 pts (3) (PGA, SAG)
3. The Imitation Game - 53 pts4. Selma - 40 pts
5. The Grand Budapest Hotel - 37 pts (HFPA)
6. Whiplash - 23 pts
7. American Sniper - 20 pts
8. The Theory of Everything - 19 pts
Out of the race:
9. Unbroken - 28 pts (1)10. Interstellar - 20 pts
11. Foxcatcher - 17 pts
12. Gone Girl - 8 pts
12. Fury - 8 pts
14. Into the Woods - 7 pts
15. Wild - 5 pts
16. Nightcrawler - 4 pts16. Mr. Turner - 4 pts
18. Still Alice - 3 pts
18. A Most Violent Year - 3 pts (NBR)
BEST DIRECTOR (8 Predix):
1. Richard Linklater (Boyhood) - 44 pt (3) (NYFCC, LAFCA, HFPA, BFCA, BAFTA)
2. Alejandro G. Innaritu (Birdman) - 35 pts (4) (DGA)
3. Bennet Miller (Foxcatcher) - 14 pts
4. Wes Anderson (The Grand Budapest Hotel) - 13 pts
5. Morten Tyldum (The Imitation Game) - 6 pts
Out of the race:
6. Angelina Jolie (Unbroken) - 10 pts (1)
7. Ava DuVernay (Selma) - 9 pts
8. Christopher Nolan (Interstellar) - 5 pts
9. Clint Eastwood (American Sniper) - 3 pts (NBR)
10. Damien Chazelle (Whiplash) - 1 ptBEST ACTOR (8 Predix):
1. Michael Keaton (Birdman) - 43 pts (2) (NBR, HFPA, BFCA)
1. Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything) - 43 pts (5) (HFPA, SAG, BAFTA)3. Benedict Cumberbatch (The Imitation Game) - 17 pts
4. Steve Carell (Foxcatcher) - 15 pts (1)
5. Bradley Cooper (American Sniper) - 7 pts
Out of the race:
6. Timothy Spall (Mr. Turner) - 7 pts (NYFCC)
6. David Oyelowo (Selma) - 7 pts
8. Tom Hardy (Locke) - 3 pts (LAFCA)
8. Oscar Isaac - 3 pts (NBR)
10. Jake Gylenhaal (Nightcrawler) - 2 pts
10. Jack O'Connell (Unbroken) - 2 pts
12. Channing Tatum (Foxcatcher) - 1 pt
BEST ACTRESS (8 Predix):
1. Julianne Moore (Still Alice) - 54 pts (7) (NBR, HFPA, BFCA, SAG, BAFTA)
2. Rosamund Pike (Gone Girl) - 31 pts (1)
3. Felicity Jones (The Theory of Everything) - 16 pts
4. Reese Witherspoon (Wild) - 13 pts
5. Marion Cotillard (Two Days, One Night) - 12 pts (NYFCC)
Out of the race:
6. Amy Adams (Big Eyes) - 6 pts (HFPA)
7. Emily Blunt (Into the Woods) - 4 pts
8. Hilary Swank (The Homesman) - 2 pts
9. Jennifer Aniston (Cake) - 1 pt
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR (8 Predix):
1. J.K. Simmons (Whiplash) - 56 pts (7) (NYFCC, HFPA, BFCA, SAG, BAFTA)
2. Edward Norton (Birdman) - 36 pts (1) (NBR)
3. Mark Ruffalo (Foxcatcher) - 20 pts
4. Ethan Hawke (Boyhood) - 18 pts
5. Robert Duvall (The Judge) - 4 pts
Out of the race:
6. Logan Lerman (Fury) - 2 pts
7. Tim Roth (Selma) - 1pt
7. Miyavi (Unbroken) - 1 pt
7. Josh Brolin (Inherent Vice) - 1 pt
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS (8 Predix):
1. Patricia Arquette (Boyhood) - 62 pts (8) (NYFCC, LAFCA, HFPA, BFCA, SAG, BAFTA)
2. Emma Stone (Birdman) - 23 pts
3. Meryl Streep (Into the Woods) - 21 pts
4. Keira Knightley (The Imitation Game) - 17 pts
5. Laura Dern (Wild) - 7 pts
Out of the race:
6. Jessica Chastain (A Most Violent Year) - 4 pts
6. Imelda Staunton (Pride) - 4 pts
8. Agata Kulesza (Ida) - 3 pts (LAFCA)
9. Carmen Ejogo (Selma) - 2 pts
10. Oprah Winfrey (Selma) - 1 pt
10. Katherine Waterston (Inherent Vice) - 1 pt
10. Rene Russo (Nightcrawler) - 1pt
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY (5 Predix):
1. Birdman - 30 pts (4) (HFPA, BFCA)
2. The Grand Budapest Hotel - 27 pts (1) (NYFCC, LAFCA, BAFTA)
3. Boyhood - 17 pts
4. Foxcatcher - 7 pts
4. Nightcrawler - 7 pts
Out of the race:
6. Interstellar - 1 pt
6. Selma - 1 pt
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY (5 Predix):
1. The Imitation Game - 23 pts (3)
2. Whiplash - 18 pts (2)
3. The Theory of Everything - 16 pts (BAFTA)
4. American Sniper - 8 pts
5. Inherent Vice - 6 pts
Out of the race:
6. Gone Girl - 7 pts (BFCA)
7. Unbroken - 4 pts
8. Into the Woods - 2 pts
9. Wild - 1 pt
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY (2 Predix):
1. Birdman (Emmanuel Lubezki) - 13 pts (2) (BFCA)
2. Mr. Turner (Dick Pope) - 6 pts
3. Unbroken (Roger Deakins) - 3 pts
3. The Grand Budapest Hotel (Robert Yeoman) - 3 pts
5. Ida (Lukasz Zal & Ryszard Lenczewski) - 1 pt
Out of the race:
5. Selma (Bradford Young) - 1 pt
2. Interstellar ( Hoyte van Hoytema) - 4 pts
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE (2 Predix):
1. The Theory of Everything (Johann Johannsson) - 11 pts (1) (HFPA)
2. Interstellar (Hans Zimmer) - 8 pts (1)
2. The Imitation Game (Alexandre Desplat) - 8 pts
4. The Grand Budapest Hotel (Alexandre Desplat) - 2 pts
5. Mr. Turner (Gary Yershon) - 0 pts
Out of the race:
6. Gone Girl (Trent Reznor & Atticus Ross) - 3 pts
7. Unbroken (Alexandre Desplat) - 1 pt
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