Sunday's LAFCA, Boston and NYOFC have all spoken, all naming Boyhood the BPOY. At the LAFCAs, however, runner-up The Grand Budapest Hotel was only 2 votes behind. We have a situation clearing up with a couple frontrunners, and an open category, which was the first one to be called a "lock" weeks ago - the leading actors.
The SAG Awards nominations came in this morning with a couple surprises. But speaking of the actors let's take a look at their category. For the last 10 consecutive years (all in all 16 out of 21) the best actor at the SAGs went on to win the Oscar. How will it be this year? Does that mean that the race for the win is now between only 5 guys?
Keaton, Redmayne, Cumberbatch, Gylenhaal and Carell have all been mentioned and as far as statistics go - they are the only 5 that can win it. That of course doesn't mean that they will be all nominated, no. It means that Even of Oyelowo is nominated for an Oscar, or say Timothy Spall, they won't win. That's what the stats say. And I'm not a big fan of them, but this one is quite impressive isn't it? It makes you doubt wether this year is the year for the rule to be broken? Could it be this easy? 10 in a row, and than 10 years of no overlap?
Among the leading ladies stands a little surprise, although I kind of saw it coming, Jennifer Aniston. She has a wonderful role in "Cake" and it is the type that is "actor-friendly". Meaning - she's getting nominated. MEANING - She's getting that fifth slot. And it might just be confirmed should come Golden Globe nomination morning, Cotillard, Swank and Blunt miss out on nominations. But that's not gonna happen. Blunt is likely to win her category which kind of gets in the way of Aniston. I'd say Aniston has more of a meaty turn, but momentum does a lot.
Supporting ladies - Yes, as expected....aha yes, Knightley....WHAT?! Naomi Watts? But her role in Birdman is waaayy too "out of the way" for it to be nominated! Ohhh WHAT? It's not for Birdman? It's for St. Vincent? *Now imagine my face, covering a skull inside which the brain suddenly exploded, filled with a massively confused WTF!*. After about 30 seconds I start to relax and realize: This is f*cking fantastic! I mean the performance wasn't that deserving, but it was extremely funny. Besides we needed that WTF moment in the race. Can't remember the last time that happened. And that's just sad.
Well hell so with all that we go into Golden Globes, and let's just say - that's when the fun starts. If Jessica Chastain and Laura Dern don't get nominated, they're in deep shit. So is Selma. But Selma will. And it will be a hit with the HFPA. So let's go, let's look at the Globes. We'll take a look at the race after that. Here are this season's first Golden Globe predictions from me:
BEST MOTION PICTURE DRAMA
1. Boyhood (Richard Linklater)
2. Selma (Ava DuVernay)
3. The Imitation Game (Morten Tyldum)
4. Unbroken (Angeline Jolie)
5. The Theory of Everything (James Marsh)
Watch it sneak in: Mr. Turner (Mike Leigh)
Would make your eyes pop out: The Babadook (Jennifer Kent)
BEST MOTION PICTURE COMEDY OR MUSICAL
1. Birdman (Alejandro Gonzalez Innaritu)
2. Into The Woods (Rob Marshall)
3. The Grand Budapest Hotel (Wes Anderson)
4. St. Vincent (Theodore Melfi)
5. Inherent Vice (Paul Thomas Anderson)
Watch it sneak in: Top Five (Chris Rock)
Would make your eyes pop out: Guardians of the Galaxy (James Gunn)
BEST DIRECTOR
1. Richard Linklater (Boyhood)
2. Alejandro Gonzalez Innaritu
3. Ava DuVernay (Selma)
4. Angelina Jolie (Unbroken)
5. David Fincher (Gone Girl)
Watch it: Mike Leigh (Mr. Turner)
WTF: Rob Marshall (Into The Woods)
BEST ACTOR DRAMA
1. Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything)
2. David Oyelowo (Selma)
3. Benedict Cumberbatch (The Imitation Game)
4. Steve Carell (Foxcatcher)
5. Jake Gylenhaal (Nightcrawler)
Watch it: Bradley Cooper (American Sniper)
WTF: Chadwick Boseman (Get On Up)
BEST ACTRESS DRAMA
1. Julianne Moore (Still Alice)
2. Rosamund Pike (Gone Girl)
3. Felicity Jones (The Theory of Everything)
4. Reese Witherspoon (Wild)
5. Jennifer Aniston (Cake)
Watch it: Hilary Swank (The Homesman)
WTF: Scarlett Johansson (Under The Skin)
BEST ACTOR COMEDY OR MUSICAL
1. Michael Keaton (Birdman)
2. Bill Murray (St. Vincent)
3. Ralph Fiennes (The Grand Budapest Hotel)
4. Chris Rock (Top Five)
5. Joaquin Phoenix (Inherent Vice)
Watch it: James Corden (Into The Woods)
WTF: Al Pacino (The Humbling)
BEST ACTRESS COMEDY OR MUSICAL
1. Emily Blunt (Into The Woods)
2. Angelina Jolie (Maleficent)
3. Amy Adams (Big Eyes)
4. Helen Mirren (The Hundred Foot Journey)
5. Jenny Slate (Obvious Child)
Watch it: Keira Knightley (Begin Again)
WTF: Shirley MacLaine (Elsa & Fred)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1. J.K. Simmons (Whiplash)
2. Edward Norton (Birdman)
3. Ethan Hawke (Boyhood)
4. Robert Duvall (The Judge)
5. Josh Brolin (Inherent Vice)
Watch it: Mark Ruffalo (Foxcatcher)
WTF: Chris Pine (Into The Woods)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1. Patricia Arquette (Boyhood)
2. Meryl Streep (Into The Woods)
3. Keira Knightley (The Imitation Game)
4. Emma Stone (Birdman)
5. Jessica Chastain (A Most Violent Year)
Watch it: Laura Dern (Wild)
WTF: Naomi Watts (St. Vincent)
BEST SCREENPLAY
1. Birdman
2. Boyhood
3. The Imitation Game
4. Gone Girl
5. The Grand Budapest Hotel
Watch it: Foxcatcher
WTF: Top Five (Chris Rock)
BEST SCORE
1. Interstellar
2. The Theory of Everything
3. The Imitation Game
4. Gone Girl
5. Birdman
Watch it: Unbroken
BEST FOREIGN FILM
1. Ida (Poland)
2. Wild Tales (Argentina)
3. Winter Sleep (Turkey)
4. Force Majeure (Sweden)
5. Mommy (Canada)
So that's all, I don't know anything about the other categories, so we''ll just stay with this.
Burt Mizaki
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