The 1st Burt Awards

   THE 1st BURT AWARDS   

                                                                                                    

 

    Here they are, the 1st Burt Awards, given out in 15 categories. Some of them are Oscar categories, some are not. I had a very hard time deciding on the winner in a few categories, the same was with even nominating the right ones - and I still have my doubts. I didn't mention them in the nominations but Amy Adams proved to be quite amazing when I gave the film a second try, the same for Christian Bale. Cooper still kind of feels not the right thing to praise in the movie. Also "All Is Lost", the movie, the direction and Redford are all amazing. As for music I feel it was an ignorant thing to do to oversee Alexandre Desplat's score for Philomena.
    Anyways, here are the winners in all categories, the Burt Awards:



BEST PICTURE

12 Years a Slave

Why: It is touching, the acting is phenomenal. Brutal at times, tends to shock, but at the same time beautifully depicts the suffering that the characters experienced. It's masterfully executed, I must say it is by far one of the best movies in the past years. "Her" was a strong contender, as it is nothing we have ever seen before, but it didn't strike me with the spectacularly visible art of filmmaking seen in "12 Years a Slave".



BEST DIRECTOR

Steve McQueen (12 Years a Slave)

Why: All the directors did something amazing this year. Even those, that I didn't mention like David O. Russel, J.C. Chandor, Spike Jonze. All of them, something different. Cuaron created something out of absolute nothing, Scorsese depicted a somewhat saddening story in a satyrical almost grotesque way. And McQueen, as he taught us to expect from him, masterfully brought suffering to the screen and beyond it into the audience. I decided to award him, as his job as a director, gave the most direct value to his film, the story is moving, yes, but the art, which the Brit is known for, lifted the film to such a level that we can call it the best of the year.



BEST ACTOR

Chiwetel Ejiofor (12 Years a Slave)

Why: This was a really difficult one. I almost gave it to DiCaprio, as his funny and tragic character is surely the best role of his career. His talent shines and the role is just pleasure to watch. Ejiofor however, and his role, is not pleasant to watch at all. His character has lost everything, and is seemingly the most negatively thinking one of the bunch. Yet in Ejiofor's act we can spot traces of that hope that he claims to have, that it will never go away. His performance was extremely touching, and as I mentioned before, it reminds me of the excellent Oscar winning performance of Adrien Brody in "The Pianist".



BEST ACTRESS

Judi Dench (Philomena)

Why: This was very tricky because, of course Cate Blanchett was superb in her role, and has won practically everything for it. Streep was also fantastic, and so were Thompson and Bullock. But I decided to rewards Dench, because her performance is so unusual, in such a heartwarming way. It is subtle, and those are rarely recognized. I smiled every time she had a line in her movie, because she makes your life a happier one with what she does on screen. She, in my opinion, is the actress this year who managed the best to completely disappear into her character.



BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club)

Why: He is simply fantastic. It's something interesting, a difficult character, an intriguing one. He carries it out with great excellence, and I just have to tip my hat to that.



BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Julia Roberts (August: Osage County)

Why: There were a lot of great performances, by newcomers Margot Robbie, Lupita Nyong'o, veteran June Squibb and the marvelous Oprah Winfrey. They all deserve praise. At some point I almost decided to award Robbie, because she so magically becomes the Duchess of Bay Ridge, with her adopted Brooklyn accent. Then Nyong'o with her, suffering filled, Patsey. In the end I decided to go with Roberts, because it is something totally unexpected, she plays a character that seems so powerful, but in the end she makes you realize that the anger that toughens her character, actually makes her weak and vulnerable. She is amazing showing the fear of becoming her mother (Meryl Streep; and I guess that Roberts is the only one who fears becoming Meryl Streep). And such a negative, bad character, that we would never expect from Roberts.



BEST ACTING ENSEMBLE

August: Osage County

Why: The whole movie is run by the cast. They are the ones who make it all work. It is essentially theatre on screen. Each of them is different and each of them falls into the perfect place with their nuanced and intriguing performances.



BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Her (Spike Jonze)

Why: Like I said, it's nothing like we've ever seen before. It's a completely new idea, and such a bright story to go with it. It's something magnificently original.



BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

12 Years a Slave (John Rodley)

Why: It's an excellently written film, that works with the direction, and makes the whole movie a great one.



BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

All Is Lost (Alex Ebert)

Why: It may be subtle and sometimes you can't hear it but the fact is that it is perfect in every way. And it is something completely new, composed in a way, that I at least, listened to it with great fascination.



BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Gravity (Emmanuel Lubezki)

Why: It was an extremely difficult decision, because there was also the excellent Inside Llewyn Davis photography by Bruno Delbonnel, but I decided to go with the, maybe, little populist choice, but I just couldn't resist. It is spectacular and beautiful. Maybe big help from the visual artists, but I just couldn't ignore it.



BEST POSTER OF THE YEAR

Gravity

Why: It perfectly depicts the loneliness that is the main theme of the film. 

BEST SURPRISE

Brie Larson (Short Term 12)

Why: She became the crowd's favorite after her amazing breakthrough performance in Short Term 12. She felt amazingly perfect and we all, I think, admire her already, and believe that a great and awards winning actress will come out of that.



BEST QUOTE

The Wolf of Wall Street (Leonardo CiCaprio) - " Those little bastards were so strong that I discovered a whole new phase. The cerebral palsy phase".

Why: It just stays in your mind, it's something that will be quoted. It's funny and kind of tragic, like the whole movie. The Benihana quote was also great, but it was too much of an inside joke.



BEST SCENE

The Wolf of Wall Street (Leonardo DiCaprio) - The cerebral palsy phase scene.

Why: It is so amazing, with almost no words coming from the actor in screen, it's such a hilarious scene. With all the details working perfectly, the whole journey to the car, performed by DiCaprio, with many excellent surprises from Scorsese, it's just fantastic.



Thank you, these were the winners, see you soon with some predictions after tonight's BAFTAs! See you,

Burt Mizaki

Best Picture Preferential Vote - Favorite or Consensus?!

        Preferential voting & Momentum war 

   The 'Final Oscar Voting' starts tomorrow! Which means that the momentum is the most important thing in the world for the contenders, now. Whoever has the flow over the next two weeks is likely to be in a very good position. But being the favorite is not enough. Why? Here comes the preferential voting. What is it about? Here is the perfect explanation that I could find: http://www.thewrap.com/steve-pond-explains-oscars-voting-process-video/ .
     The preferential voting basically means that it's not a regular popular vote. You have 9 nominees so you put a number (from 1 - favorite film; to 9 - least favorite) next to each of them on the OSCAR BALLOT:

                                                                                                                                                    

                                                                                                                                                   

      Then Price Waterhouse piles all the mailed in ballots on top of each other (even if a member votes online, they print them out). Imagine 9 piles of paper sheets, them being the Best Picture ballots. 9 piles of different sizes correspond, obviously, to the number of nominees. 

     A picture needs 50% + 1 vote, to win the Oscar. This said I mean it needs that number of ballots that have the film marked as the first choice. So e.g. "Philomena" gets 60% No1 votes, it wins right away. But in real life it is virtually impossible to have it resolved right away.

      So let's just say picture "A" has 25%, and picture "B" has 20%, and so on, to picture "F", which has 5%. No film reached the minimum benchmark, so the one with the least number 1 votes, is out of the game. What happens to paper pile No9? They check which film is No2 on the lists of each, "pile No9", ballot, and that's the pile where the ballots go to next. 

     E.G.   So let's say on the top of my list there's "Her", but that film is out in the first round, and in second place I have "Captain Phillips" - that's my new No1 film. If that one's out it goes to No3 film, or if that one is already out, the No4 film and so on.

     There are 8 piles now. If none of them have 50% + 1 vote, than the process goes on again. If on a ballot a film that is chosen as No2 is out as well as the first one, they look at No3, and so on down the list on the ballot. At some point one of the films will have more than 50%, probably meaning that 2 pictures are left in the end. Also, there are NO ties in this category.

    So the film that has the 50% +1 votes in the very end is your Best Picture winner. BUT - it doesn't necessarily mean that it had the most No1 votes in the beginning. I doubt "Argo", last year had too many No1 votes. 

    Another example: Gravity had 30 % in the beginning, "American Hustle" had 20%. But the latter was more often on No2, 3 and 4 spots, while Gravity, if wasn't No1, dangled on the bottoms of ballots. Which means "Hustle" wins. Again - it's only an example.

    So a question comes forth: "Is does a film, that's a favorite for a large group of people, beat a film that's somewhere around a 3 spot for 90% of the Academy? Our Best Picture might be a favorite of only 10% of the people, while the popular choice, which is backed by 30%, falls back during the preferential voting. For some it makes it fair, for others - not.

   Why fair? Some say that it gives a chance to the films that don't shine, but it beats out a possibility of a big controversy (yeah, look at Argo, that wasn't very well received).

   Why not fair? It is said that it boosts the chances of the relatively mediocre nominees. It is a simplest consensus, leaving us in a "so-so" mood, instead of not knowing if a year is going to be cheerful or a disappointment, come the Big Night.

  So what do I think? Let's see the system was here for two years, this is the third time. "The Artist" and "Argo". Well I don't know, neither were my favorites but I must say I wasn't so into any of the "Artist year" films, while I kind of could have thought of a couple other scenarios last year which would satisfy me more.

  It sounds really complicated, and it makes it feel even more unpredictable, but the two years we've had it, the most predicted contenders won. So we'll see who catches the last-minute momentum.

                                                                                                                                               

    Well talking about all of this just asks to do a quick Best Picture prediction. The battle of the last weeks goes by the title "12 Years a Slave vs. Gravity". Questions surface: will there be a Picture/Director split? There haven't been two consecutive ones since the 50s, I think. If there isn't one who takes the "BigBox" (Picture & Director). My first pick for that would be Gravity, because, it has the director slot in a "likely winner" status, which means that McQueen isn't even in a battle there, really, and in the Picture category it is pretty even. That said I will shift things up ahead of Sunday's BURT AWARDS and the same evening's BAFTAs, and put Gravity at the top, which I never did before. Just to see how that looks.

Here it is, the preferentially voted, BEST PICTURE:

1. Gravity (Alfonso Cuaron)

2. 12 Years a Slave (Steve McQueen)

3. American Hustle (David O. Russel)

4. Philomena (Stephen Frears)

5. Her (Spike Jonze)

6. Dallas Buyers Club (Jean-Marc Vallee)

7. Captain Phillips (Paul Greengrass)

8. Nebraska (Alexander Payne)

9. The Wolf of Wall Street (Martin Scorsese)

Don't forget to look at the OSCAR RACE leader boar page, which you can enter through the sidebar menu.

Burt Mizaki

The Tempest

  Woody Allen, Phillip Seymour Hoffman and the Tempest. 

    You could say that things got crazy, that Woody Allen's personal life could have an impact on the race and that a thousand different factors would matter. But really, who gives a shit? I mean, sure, some melodrama and controversy over Cate Blanchett may do harm, but still it's publicity. And after all, didn't we already know that he had some Roman Polanski business in the past? Weren't there any rumors that he molested the girl? I don't know it just doesn't seem that unexpected. Yeah, I'm sorry maybe the cases of the respective directors are incomparable. Yet again people, nobody gives a damn, with all due respect. 
      Back to the beginning then, you might say it's crazy in the race, but.... no. There is nothing going on, nothing changing, no unexpected twists. Maybe the BAFTAs will spice it up, but that's a whole weak away.
      Approaching the film subject from a different side we are all devastated to learn about the passing of a great actor. He amused us in "Charlie Wilson's War", he intrigued in "Doubt", and amazed in "Capote". I don't want this to sound like an obituary, but he truly was one of the great ones. Rest In Peace, Phillip Seymour Hoffman.
    Now let me explain the title of the post. The Tempest, no, nothing to do with Shakespeare. It's something that might happen shortly. Like I said there is NOTHING happening now. Maybe that is the precise reason to believe that there might be something in the very near future. The silence before the thunder, or however that saying goes. Maybe the BAFTAs will shake it up? Maybe some scandals will develop? Nothing as effective in campaigning than backstabbing your fellow nominees, and when that works and you thank the Academy, you mention your "sincere" gratitude to the opponents for the inspiration. Well, I might have exaggerated but something has gotta happen right? Or all the Oscar-bloggers will soon lose their jobs.
    Anyways, I am adding some additional nominations for the Burt Awards, which winners will be announced this Sunday. The new categories are: Best Scene; Best Quote. That's it. 
   As for the Oscar nominees I must admit I took a second shot at "American Hustle", and I quite enjoyed it this time. It didn't convince me to call it the best movie of the year, but it was OK.
   
Just for the routine's sake I'll type some predictions in, so here they are ladies and gents:


BEST PICTURE
1. 12 Years a Slave (Steve McQueen)
2. Gravity (Alfonso Cuaron)
3. American Hustle (David O. Russel)
4. Her (Spike Jonze)
5. The Wolf of Wall Street (Martin Scorsese)
6. Philomena (Stephen Frears)
7. Dallas Buyers Club (Jean-Marc Vallee)
8. Captain Phillips (Paul Greengrass)
9. Nebraska (Alexander Payne)

BEST DIRECTOR
1. Alsonso Cuaron (Gravity)
2. Steve McQueen (12 Years a Slave)
3. David O. Russel (American Hustle)
4. Martin Scorsese (The Wolf of Wall Street)
5. Alexander Payne (Nebraska)

BEST ACTOR
1. Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club)
2. Chiwetel Ejiofor (12 Years a Slave)
3. Leonardo DiCaprio (The Wolf of Wall Street)
4. Bruce Dern (Nebraska)
5. Christian Bale (American Hustle)

BEST ACTRESS
1. Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine)
2. Amy Adams (American Hustle)
3. Judi Dench (Philomena)
4. Sandra Bullock (Gravity)
5. Meryl Streep (August: Osage County)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1. Lupita Nyong'o (12 Years a Slave)
2. June Squibb (Nebraska)
3. Jennifer Lawrence (American Hustle)
4. Julia Roberts (August: Osage County)
5. Sally Hawkins (Blue Jasmine)



THE BURT AWARDS REMAINING CATEGORIES


BEST SCENE 
- "August: Osage County" - Julia Roberts makes Meryl Streep eat fish.
LINK: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eHPsIbfNcLQ

- "Captain Phillips" - Ending scene with nurse helping Tom Hanks.
LINK: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yl5IP6E-9CI

- "American Hustle" - Jennifer Lawrence burns "science oven".
LINK: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eIGPvPRzEaQ

- "The Wolf of Wall Street" - DiCaprio cerebral palsy phase after Lemmon Quaaludes.
LINK: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vr3151RdQWE

- "The Wolf of Wall Street" - Matthew McConaughey hums during lunch with DiCaprio.
LINK: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2YCHmOAbJBs


BEST QUOTE
-  "Eat the fish, bitch!" - Julia Roberts in "August: Osage County"
- "I'm never going to Benihana's again. I don't care who's birthday it is." - Jonah Hill in "The Wolf of Wall Street"
- "And here's Woody's little sister, Rose. She was only nineteen when she died in a car accident. What a whore." - June Squibb in "Nebraska"
- "If you ride like lighting, you're gonna crash like thunder." - Ben Mendelsohn in "The Place Beyond the Pines"
- "These bastards where so strong, I discovered a whole new phase. The cerebral palsy phase" - Leonardo DiCaprio in "The Wolf of Wall Street"

4 weeks, 121 nominees, 24 Oscars to give.

      With 4 weeks to go things are taking shape, contenders falling into place and we need to start a countdown. This month is always special because the final Oscar voting takes place and it is extremely important to be on the top, have the momentum, in the period of time when the voting takes place. So who has the momentum now? I mentioned that two posts ago, couple days ago. 
      Gravity is speeding up with its buzz while 12 Years still sits on the frontrunners' chair. And it seems as for the first time in a long time, having been in a movie that premiered in July, helps keep the frontrunner position in their category. I'm talking about Cate Blanchett. She used, what most would call a weakness, the fact that the film came out 6 months ago, as it would normally be forgotten, to steadily build up a strong "likely winner" position.
     4 weeks to go, which means a loooooot of things could happen. 4 weeks ago Chiwetel Ejiofor was the frontrunner in the Actor race, which position he lost to Matthew McConaughey. Sandra Bullock lost most of her momentum, as nobody really considers her to be a major threat for Cate.

      REMEMBER! Check the OSCAR RACE page! Choose the page on the sidebar ---->>>

      Anyways, here are the Predictions:


BEST PICTURE
1. 12 Years a Slave (Steve McQueen)

2. Gravity (Alfonso Cuaron)
3. American Hustle (David O. Russel)
4. Nebraska (Alexander Payne)
5. The Wolf of Wall Street (Martin Scorsese)
6. Philomena (Stephen Frears)
7. Dallas Buyers Club (Jean-Marc Vallee)
8. Her (Spike Jonze
9. Captain Phillips (Paul Greengrass)

BEST DIRECTOR
1. Alfonso Cuaron (Gravity)
2. Steve McQueen (12 Years a Slave)
3. David O. Russel (American Hustle)
4. Alexander Payne (Nebraska)
5. Martin Scorsese (The Wolf of Wall Street)

BEST ACTOR
1. Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club)
2. Chiwetel Ejiofor (12 Years a Slave)
3. Leonardo DiCaprio (The Wolf of Wall Street)
4. Bruce Dern (Nebraska)
5. Christian Bale (American Hustle)

BEST ACTRESS
1. Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine)
2. Judi Dench (Philomena)
3. Amy Adams (American Hustle)
4. Meryl Streep (August: Osage County)
5. Sandra Bullock (Gravity)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1. Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club)
2. Michael Fassbender (12 Years a Slave)
3. Jonah Hill (The Wolf of Wall Street)
4. Barkhad Abdi (Captain Phillips)
5. Bradley Cooper (American Hustle)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1. Lupita Nyong'o (12 Years a Slave)
2. Julia Roberts (August: Osage County)
3. Jennifer Lawrence (American Hustle)
4. June Squibb (Nebraska)
5. Sally Hawkins (Blue Jasmine)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1. Her (Spike Jonze)
2. American Hustle (Eric Warren Singer & David O. Russel)
3. Nebraska (Bob Nelson)
4. Blue Jasmine (Woody Allen)
5. Dallas Buyers Club (Craig Borten & Melisa Wallack)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1. 12 Years a Slave (John Ridley)
2. Before Midnight (Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke & Richard Linklater)
3. Philomena (Steve Coogan & Jeff Pope)
4. The Wolf of Wall Street (Terence Winter)
5. Captain Phillips (Billy Ray)

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
1. Gravity (Emmanuel Lubezki)
2. Inside Llewyn Davis (Bruno Delbonnel)
3. Prisoners (Roger Deakins)
4. Nebraska (Phedon Papamichael)
5. Grandmaster (Philipe Le Sourd)

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
1. Gravity (Steven Price)
2. Saving Mr. Banks (Thomas Newman)
3. Her (Arcade Fire)
4. Philomena (Alexandre Desplat)
5. The Book Thief (John Williams)

That's it for today, I'll update during the week. Don't forget to look up the OSCAR RACE page on the right hand side on the sidebar. ------------->>>>>>>>>

Here come the 1st Burt Awards - Nominations!

THE 1ST BURT AWARDS

NOMINATIONS

Winners revealed February 16th

BEST PICTURE

12 Years a Slave

American Hustle

Captain Phillips

Dallas Buyers Club

Gravity

Her

Inside Llewyn Davis

Nebraska

Philomena

The Wolf of Wall Street

BEST DIRECTOR

Alfonso Cuaron (Gravity)

Joel & Ethan Coen (Inside Llewyn Davis)

Paul Greengrass (Captain Phillips)

Steve McQueen (12 Years a Slave)

Martin Scorsese (The Wolf of Wall Street)

BEST ACTOR

Bruce Dern (Nebraska)

Leonardo DiCaprio (The Wolf of Wall Street)

Chiwetel Ejiofor (12 Years a Slave)

Tom Hanks (Captain Phillips)

Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club)

BEST ACTRESS

Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine)

Sandra Bullock (Gravity)

Judi Dench (Philomena)

Meryl Streep (August: Osage County)

Emma Thompson (Saving Mr. Banks)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Barkhad Abdi (Captain Phillips)

Daniel Bruhl (Rush)

Michael Fassbender (12 Years a Slave)

Jonah Hill (The Wolf of Wall Street)

Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Lupita Nyong'o (12 Years a Slave)

Margot Robbie (The Wolf of Wall Street)

Julia Roberts (August: Osage County)

June Squibb (Nebraska)

Oprah Winfrey (Lee Daniels' The Butler)

BEST ACTING ENSEMBLE

12 Years a Slave

August: Osage County

American Hustle

The Wolf of Wall Street

Inside Llewyn Davis

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

American Hustle (David O. Russel & Eric Warren Singer)

Blue Jasmine (Woody Allen)

Her (Spike Jonze)

Inside Llewyn Davis (Joel & Ethan Coen)

Nebraska (Bob Nelson)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

12 Years a Slave (John Ridley)

August: Osage County (Tracy Letts)

Captain Phillips (Billy Ray)

Philomena (Steve Coogan & Jeff Pope)

The Wolf of Wall Street (Terence Winter)

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

12 Years a Slave (Hans Zimmer)

All Is Lost (Alex Ebert)

Gravity (Steven Price)

Her (Arcade Fire)

Rush (Hans Zimmer)

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

12 Years a Slave (Sean Bobbit)

Gravity (Emmanuel Lubezki)

Inside Llewyn Davis (Bruno Delbonnel)

Rush (Anthony Dod Mantle)

Her (Hoyte van Hoytema)

BEST POSTER OF THE YEAR (Posters on the right)

12 Years a Slave

Gravity

Inside Llewyn Davis

Saving Mr. Banks

Trance

BEST SURPRISE (UNDERRATED)

Mads Mikkelsen (The Hunt)

Michael B. Jordan (Fruitvale Station)

Brie Larson (Short Term 12)

Ryan Coogler (Fruitvale Station; Director)

Danielle Albert (Captain Phillips)

A look at the frontrunners #1

    A LOOK AT THE FRONTRUNNERS   #1      

FRONTRUNNERS    LOCKS    MOMENTUM    BUZZ    WINNERS    SPOILERS    SNUBS

  As for the predictions - let's talk "locks". I wrote it like that because they aren't always what they seem. We need to think how the members of the Academy will think. So here are some for/against arguments for the frontrunners and their contenders.


1. Best Picture - 12 Years a Slave
 For:
    a) It's an epic drama story, it's touching and the art of film behind it is inspiring. It really        makes you feel that a vote for another Picture would be a disgrace to history and film.
    b) Despite the common feeling about American Hustle being the public's favorite, I think 12 Years a Slave is the film expected to win. And they don't want any disappointment after Argo (in which case everything was confusing and absurd, as far as the public response after the film winning is concerned). And I know Hustle wasn't in Toronto, but still it's 12 Years that won the audience award. So they know it deserves something.

Against:
    a) It might be to harsh for some. They might have the drama-fatigue. (The Artist wasn't really a comedy. I'm not saying Hustle is a comedy but it's a lighter material)
   b) Leave Hustle aside, Gravity picked up a little momentum lately. That might be the upset of the night.


2. Best Director - Alfonso Cuaron
For:
a) Is admired for a great effort and a breakthrough in filmmaking. He's acknowledged by all the most important award shows and guilds.

Against:
b) The word "effort" might get in the way. The Academy might realize that the direction was actually not that excellent after all and only the challenge that he faced during shooting, having a green screen all the time, made it look amazing. Also that it wasn't so much of filmmaking, rather post-production magic. I'm not saying that's how I feel, I'm just naming a possibility.


3. Best Actor - Matthew McConaughey
For:
a) His performance was really excellent, and Matt is going through an acting breakthrough, a second shot at acting, without all of that "hot texican coming to a rescue" thing. He plays an HIV positive homophobe who finds an unlikely partner in a transgender Jared Leto. Apart from his great performance there also is the transformation. They loooove to acknowledge people who do that. Isn't that how Nicole Kidman won her Oscar? The whole nose thing? 

Against:
a) He faces a threat in Chiwetel Ejiofor. He might jump in front of McConaughey. Why? Well of course because No1: His performance was more deserving that McConaughey's (Oscar speaking). No2 (which might be a major point for Ejiofor): The Academy loves survivors. The unlikely to win, the ones who suffer but live. In 2002 when Adrien Brody, the unlikely nominee, won the award for his portrayal of Wladyslaw Szpilman, a Jew who survived the hell of a ghetto during WW II. Him waving to Jack Nicholson and Nicolas Cage when hugging his Oscar friend. That story might come again.


4. Best Actress - Cate Blanchett
For:
a) She is a great actress and she portrayed Jasmine French in "Blue Jasmine" with extraordinary excellence. She is the likely winner, and she is the only contender in the whole race to have had the lock title since mid-summer. She is talked about so much, and she is awarded so much for her performance that I guess she is the first thing that a voter will consider while examining his ballot.

Against:
a) For me - the least deserving in the bunch - Amy Adams is the (im)possible spoiler right now. Impossible because there is almost no way it's not going to Blanchett. The possible because she has some momentum and I guess I have a hunch that she could get her hands on her 1st Oscar with 5 nominations. Also there are also some attention deserving performances like Judi Dench (Philomena) and Meryl Streep (August: Osage County). I don't see it going to Bullock because I believe the Academy will agree that she wasn't Oscar deserving in the film. Also Streep is unlikely because, Hollywood is suffering from a little Streep-fatigue. Yet I still think that her performance was breathtaking and deserves more attention and certainly respect than it's getting. Judi Dench remains a possible surprise as she has won only 1 Oscar, was nominated for 7, and is a great actress. (She got her 1st nom when she was 61). Also she was amazing in Philomena and maybe she deserves to be the surprise of the night. Lot of possible outcomes that most of us don't see coming.


5. Best Supporting Actor - Jared Leto
For:
a) He was amazing and the role was definitely interesting. He played a transgender woman. He is a very underrated actor.
b) It's something that we didn't see in a long time. A serious male contender playing such a complicated character which his female Rayon.

Against:
a) Michael Fassbender has done an amazing job in 12 Years a Slave playing one of the most cruel men in cinema in the past year. He was snubbed for "Shame", and could be just the one to pull of that surprise note in the evening.


6. Best Supporting Actress - Lupita Nyong'o
For:
a) It was her feature film debut, and how breathtakingly she brought it on! She played a slave, young woman, Patsey. She was an object of Fassbender's character's sexual and at the same complicated desire. She played a lonely girl, a suffering slave. Very gracefully.
b) The Academy lately likes to give the Oscars to African-American (Nyong'o is Kenyan) women in supporting roles (Hudson, Mo'Nique, Spencer).
c) They aren't likely to award Lawrence twice in a row. The try to avoid that.

Against:
a) She doesn't feel like a sure win, but at the same time I don't know what would have to happen to take her win away. Lawrence, the Hollywood sweetheart? Doubt it. Roberts for her, filled with anger and fear of becoming her mother, Barbra in August: Osage County? Or maybe a nod to June Squibb who is likely to have a last shot at that gold handsome guy? (She does Broadway). Hawkins is unlikely to stand a chance, she has little momentum. To argue against Nyong'o I'd shoot Roberts. We haven't seen her like this ever before. She angry, she screams and scares. She gave an outstanding performance and maybe deserves to get a little attention.

That's it for what I think about our so-far frontrunners. We will see in what situation they are in in a week or so.

Burt Mizaki

    

The guilds have landed!

       
        Don't forget to look up the 'Oscar Race' page which can be found in the sidebar to the right.

        The weekend is over, the guilds have landed and the predicting is back! It shaped up things in some categories - in others it gave us more confusion than explanation. That's right, the SAG and the PGA awards have been given out!
       Firstly the SAGs, aka the "Actors", have been predictably distributed. The supporting acting awards went to Jared Leto and Lupita Nyong'o for their performances in "Dallas Buyers Club" and "12 Years a Slave", respectively. The lead acting went to Blanchett for "Blue Jasmine" and Matthew McConaughey ("Dallas Buyers Club") which put him as a frontrunner in the lead actors' category. The best ensemble awards was given to "American Hustle". 
      Moving on the PGA. A lot of TV awards (series - "Breaking Bad") but what interests us is the theatrical awards (also animated - "Frozen"). The main, best picture, awards was split with a tie. The winners were 12 Years a Slave and Gravity. As Chiwetel Ejiofor said: "A tie is something you wear on a neck". Very accurate Chiwetel. Very. And I'm being serious, a tie is just not OK for us. It does not resolve the still unclear frontrunner thing. Sure at this point it is a "12 Years a Slave" Oscar to lose. But it is still a month and a half away. I still think that if anyone is to get an upset here, it's American Hustle. The outburst at the Academy would be huge (and I'm being objective now). Even more than last year's Argo. Anyway here are the predictions:

Best Picture:
1. 12 Years a Slave (Steve McQueen)
2. American Hustle (David O. Russel)
3. Gravity (Alfonso Cuaron)
4. Nebraska (Alexander Payne)
5. Dallas Buyers Club (Jean-Marc Vallee)
6. Her (Spike Jonze)
7. Philomena (Stephen Frears)
8. Captain Phillips (Paul Greengrass)
9. The Wolf of Wall Street (Martin Scorsese)

Best Director:
1. Alfonso Cuaron (Gravity)
2. Steve McQueen (12 Years a Slave)
3. David O. Russel (American Hustle)
4. Martin Scorsese (The Wolf of Wall Street)
5. Alexander Payne (Nebraska)

Best Actor:
1. Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club)
2. Chiwetel Ejiofor (12 Years a Slave)
3. Bruce Dern (Nebraska)
4. Leonardo DiCaprio (The Wolf of Wall Street)
5. Christian Bale (American Hustle)

Best Actress:
1. Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine)
2. Amy Adams (American Hustle)
3. Judi Dench (Philomena)
4. Meryl Streep (August: Osage County)
5. Sandra Bullock (Gravity)

Best Supporting Actor:
1. Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club)
2. Michael Fassbender (12 Years a Slave)
3. Bradley Cooper (American Hustle)
4. Jonah Hill (The Wolf of Wall Street)
5. Barkhad Abdi (Captain Phillips)

Best Supporting Actress:
1. Lupita Nyong'o (12 Years a Slave)
2. Jennifer Lawrence (American Hustle
3. June Squibb (Nebraska)
4. Sally Hawkins (Blue Jasmine)
5. Julia Roberts (August: Osage County)

That's it for now, I'll add new ones after the directors announce the DGA awards. It's gotta be Cuaron right?