A look at the frontrunners #1

    A LOOK AT THE FRONTRUNNERS   #1      

FRONTRUNNERS    LOCKS    MOMENTUM    BUZZ    WINNERS    SPOILERS    SNUBS

  As for the predictions - let's talk "locks". I wrote it like that because they aren't always what they seem. We need to think how the members of the Academy will think. So here are some for/against arguments for the frontrunners and their contenders.


1. Best Picture - 12 Years a Slave
 For:
    a) It's an epic drama story, it's touching and the art of film behind it is inspiring. It really        makes you feel that a vote for another Picture would be a disgrace to history and film.
    b) Despite the common feeling about American Hustle being the public's favorite, I think 12 Years a Slave is the film expected to win. And they don't want any disappointment after Argo (in which case everything was confusing and absurd, as far as the public response after the film winning is concerned). And I know Hustle wasn't in Toronto, but still it's 12 Years that won the audience award. So they know it deserves something.

Against:
    a) It might be to harsh for some. They might have the drama-fatigue. (The Artist wasn't really a comedy. I'm not saying Hustle is a comedy but it's a lighter material)
   b) Leave Hustle aside, Gravity picked up a little momentum lately. That might be the upset of the night.


2. Best Director - Alfonso Cuaron
For:
a) Is admired for a great effort and a breakthrough in filmmaking. He's acknowledged by all the most important award shows and guilds.

Against:
b) The word "effort" might get in the way. The Academy might realize that the direction was actually not that excellent after all and only the challenge that he faced during shooting, having a green screen all the time, made it look amazing. Also that it wasn't so much of filmmaking, rather post-production magic. I'm not saying that's how I feel, I'm just naming a possibility.


3. Best Actor - Matthew McConaughey
For:
a) His performance was really excellent, and Matt is going through an acting breakthrough, a second shot at acting, without all of that "hot texican coming to a rescue" thing. He plays an HIV positive homophobe who finds an unlikely partner in a transgender Jared Leto. Apart from his great performance there also is the transformation. They loooove to acknowledge people who do that. Isn't that how Nicole Kidman won her Oscar? The whole nose thing? 

Against:
a) He faces a threat in Chiwetel Ejiofor. He might jump in front of McConaughey. Why? Well of course because No1: His performance was more deserving that McConaughey's (Oscar speaking). No2 (which might be a major point for Ejiofor): The Academy loves survivors. The unlikely to win, the ones who suffer but live. In 2002 when Adrien Brody, the unlikely nominee, won the award for his portrayal of Wladyslaw Szpilman, a Jew who survived the hell of a ghetto during WW II. Him waving to Jack Nicholson and Nicolas Cage when hugging his Oscar friend. That story might come again.


4. Best Actress - Cate Blanchett
For:
a) She is a great actress and she portrayed Jasmine French in "Blue Jasmine" with extraordinary excellence. She is the likely winner, and she is the only contender in the whole race to have had the lock title since mid-summer. She is talked about so much, and she is awarded so much for her performance that I guess she is the first thing that a voter will consider while examining his ballot.

Against:
a) For me - the least deserving in the bunch - Amy Adams is the (im)possible spoiler right now. Impossible because there is almost no way it's not going to Blanchett. The possible because she has some momentum and I guess I have a hunch that she could get her hands on her 1st Oscar with 5 nominations. Also there are also some attention deserving performances like Judi Dench (Philomena) and Meryl Streep (August: Osage County). I don't see it going to Bullock because I believe the Academy will agree that she wasn't Oscar deserving in the film. Also Streep is unlikely because, Hollywood is suffering from a little Streep-fatigue. Yet I still think that her performance was breathtaking and deserves more attention and certainly respect than it's getting. Judi Dench remains a possible surprise as she has won only 1 Oscar, was nominated for 7, and is a great actress. (She got her 1st nom when she was 61). Also she was amazing in Philomena and maybe she deserves to be the surprise of the night. Lot of possible outcomes that most of us don't see coming.


5. Best Supporting Actor - Jared Leto
For:
a) He was amazing and the role was definitely interesting. He played a transgender woman. He is a very underrated actor.
b) It's something that we didn't see in a long time. A serious male contender playing such a complicated character which his female Rayon.

Against:
a) Michael Fassbender has done an amazing job in 12 Years a Slave playing one of the most cruel men in cinema in the past year. He was snubbed for "Shame", and could be just the one to pull of that surprise note in the evening.


6. Best Supporting Actress - Lupita Nyong'o
For:
a) It was her feature film debut, and how breathtakingly she brought it on! She played a slave, young woman, Patsey. She was an object of Fassbender's character's sexual and at the same complicated desire. She played a lonely girl, a suffering slave. Very gracefully.
b) The Academy lately likes to give the Oscars to African-American (Nyong'o is Kenyan) women in supporting roles (Hudson, Mo'Nique, Spencer).
c) They aren't likely to award Lawrence twice in a row. The try to avoid that.

Against:
a) She doesn't feel like a sure win, but at the same time I don't know what would have to happen to take her win away. Lawrence, the Hollywood sweetheart? Doubt it. Roberts for her, filled with anger and fear of becoming her mother, Barbra in August: Osage County? Or maybe a nod to June Squibb who is likely to have a last shot at that gold handsome guy? (She does Broadway). Hawkins is unlikely to stand a chance, she has little momentum. To argue against Nyong'o I'd shoot Roberts. We haven't seen her like this ever before. She angry, she screams and scares. She gave an outstanding performance and maybe deserves to get a little attention.

That's it for what I think about our so-far frontrunners. We will see in what situation they are in in a week or so.

Burt Mizaki