With time running out, I have to speed things up and break down four categories today. Two of them are still in play, and surprisingly the one that's the most open for a rivalry is Best Picture. So let's start with that.
All the nominees obviously have a chance of winning, hence the title "nominee". But let's be honest, it's a two horse race. Three if you really think American Hustle has a chance. So for me it's down to 12 Years a Slave and Gravity, and I must say, I am not sure. On one side I hate predicting Picture/Director splits, and even more, twice in two years, but that's what I'm gonna do. I say 12 Years a Slave! Despite the fact that it has been reported that some Academy members refuse to watch it. I still believe that enough of them have the sense of what's right. I think the fact that Gravity's screenplay is poor, might do harm to the picture overall. And 12 Years a Slave seems like an important one. Will you really be saying in the future, that 2013's BP went to a movie about a woman floating in space trying to come back to Earth? All the precursors went with 12 Years a Slave, Golden Globes, BAFTAs, a PGA tie, BFCA. And what's also interesting is that the majority of BP winners have at least a nomination for the SAG Ensemble award, whereas Gravity didn't get there.
WHO DESERVES TO WIN: 12 Years a Slave
WHO WILL WIN: 12 Years a Slave
Let's look at the men, who created some of these pictures. The Directors, what do they really do? As Michael Douglas mentioned, preparing to hand the award to Michel Hazanavicius in 2012, a director once came into a bank to get a loan for a movie. The banker asked: "You're a director? Tell me, what do you really do? The screenwriter writes the film, the editor obviously puts it together, the cameraman shoots the damn thing. So i ask again what does a director do?" The director stood there, thought for a moment, and then went to a different bank.
So what do they do? The truth is that they put it all together, all the other mentioned people's work. They keep it working, they add their imagination, they decide how to shoot something, how the actors should act, it's what makes a film, a film. So what did these mysterious men come up with this year? Cuaron, McQueen, Russel, Payne and Scorsese. They all did a fine job. Cuaron did the impossible, he directed a film, only imagining the outcome, he thought of it in every detail. McQueen gave us a piece of art, a film that works thanks to his masterful sense of direction. Russel directed his American Hustle to a light and amusing picture, which has its interesting moments and the director's choices. Payne made a funny and nicely done film, where everything seems so amusingly subtle. Scorsese went all the way with a film that's an icebreaker. The speed of it, and the dynamics of his direction are truly unbelievable. Cuaron has won practically everything, even the Brit-favoring BAFTA. So where can it go? We can't really look at last year, where the frontrunner wasn't even nominated. But let's do nevertheless. It was Ang Lee, who hasn't won anything that year, so maybe there can be an upset from McQueen?
WHO DESERVES IT: Steve McQueen
WHO WILL WIN: Alfonso Cuaron
Let's take a look at both of the leading acting categories. The guys are pretty much down to three with one in the head of the rest. It's McConaughey and his McConaissance in the front, but looking back to see how far behind him are DiCaprio and Ejiofor. Not that far as it would seem. So who wins? McConaughey grabbed everything on the way so far, but he did NOT compete directly with DiCaprio yet. The latter missed out on the SAGs, and in most of the award shows, he is in a comedy category while McConaughey is in Drama. I still am sure that it's McConaughey's Oscar to lose, but they guys are close behind. Some people say that "True Detective" helps Matthew. But I think that it doesn't. And that is due to the fact that he is way better in the TV series. Which might make his Woodruff role look weaker. But it might no. Who knows? No one ever will.
WHO DESERVES IT: All three men - Leonardo DiCaprio, Matthew McConaughey, Chiwetel Ejiofor
WHO WILL WIN: Matthew McConaughey
WHO COULD WIN: I really wouldn't be that surprised if either of the others would win. But my moneys is on Matt, and Chiwetel in second place.
The ladies. It obviously has to go to Blanchett. She has won everything, and so she deserves it. She was phenomenal. They all were. Judi Dench was very good, actually the only one of the 5 that really convinced me to being her character. Sandra Bullock was also good, she did something very new. Meryl Streep is excellent, though many disagree, she was one of the best of the year. and Adams who also did a great job on American Hustle, and with 5 nominations is on the verge of joining the Glenn Close, 6nom/0win club. All of them were different. All of them were fantastic. All of them deserve to put up a fight for that win. Cate has the obvious lead having won so much, and being voted for before thought about. It's just something automatic this year, it obviously has to go to Cate, so they vote for her. If there wasn't so much buzz around her this year, would she still be the frontrunner? Or would it be the 1% possible spoiler, Amy Adams. Maybe Sandra Bullock, that is gaining attention. Maybe Streep? Although she has won two years ago, and I don't see her accepting her fourth Oscar so soon. Or maybe Dame Judi Dench? She might be given the Oscar as a sort of 'tipping the hat' for her original performance and wonderful career.
WHO DESERVES IT: Cate Blanchett & Judi Dench (But really all of them were great)
WHO WILL WIN: Cate Blanchett
My final predictions, I will put up tomorrow. I still need to decide on a few things. I gotta say the most difficult ones for me are Best Original Screenplay, Costume Design and Production Design. The leading actor also haunts me. So see you tomorrow, and good luck with your predictions.
Burt Mizaki
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