BREAKING DOWN THE SUPPORTING ACTORS
With 4 days to go, I have yet to post my final predictions. I will do so on Saturday. Right now I'm going to look closer into the supporting acting categories.
First let's look at the ladies. Who do we have?
Sally Hawkins in Blue Jasmine. She plays a cute and naive divorced mother. Through her terrible annoyance she is so interestingly charming and convincing. What is in her favor? Well she's definitely not the obvious choice, might be a vote of a member who is not really decided. I don't know what to say else in her favor, because she doesn't really stand a chance.
Jennifer Lawrence in American Hustle. 14 times in history has a film been nominated in a all four acting categories before. And in all but two cases the film had at least one winner. That bodes well for the seemingly only hope for American Hustle. What is against her? Do we really think that she will pull off a consecutive win at 24? I mean, if they choose her, fine, but will they? Will a voter choose Lawrence to be his 24 year old two time Oscar winner? Having won more Oscars than Judi Dench, Bruce Dern, Glenn Close or Tommy Lee Jones? I wouldn't put my money on that, but if people think so, then maybe there's something to it.
Lupita Nyong'o in 12 Years a Slave. First of all she is great in the movie. Second of all she is a charming person and is loved by everyone. And most of all, 12 Years a Slave might face a problem of winning BP, but not much besides that. So she might be a place to award the film. Very often in the last several years were black actresses awarded with this particular Oscar. She also won a S.A.G. which is often a good predictor of the eventual Oscar winner.
Julia Roberts in August: Osage County. Well she has a problem. She certainly lost a lot of steam right before the voting began, and might not be a memorable contender at this point. In her defense, she plays an unexpectedly dark character and scares the hell out of the audience with her anger. I actually don't see this happening anymore, but we'll see.
June Squibb in Nebraska. She is very funny in the movie, surprisingly vulgar and it's a performance that might just bring her the crowning of her career. We all love to see mature actors get the award, they are always so charming upstage. The video that June Squibb recorded "Meet the Nominees" for Jimmy Kimmel was hilarious, and itself deserves recognition. She hash;t won anything this season, but that might be a reason for the Academy to pull out a surprise rabbit out of the hat.
Also a very reliable website, PredictWise, gives Nyong'o 54% chance of winning, while Lawrence got 40%.
So here they are, all 5 of them. Who do I think will win? Who do I want to win? And who deserves to win? All different questions, and all ought to be answered.
WHO DESERVES IT: Lupita Nyong'o or June Squibb
WHO I AM ROOTING FOR: Lupita Nyong'o
WHO WILL WIN: Lupita Nyong'o
Now let's look at the guys.
Barkhad Abdi in Captain Phillips. He seems to be the choice that would please everyone, as it did at the BAFTAs. Presenter Emma Thompson was pleasantly surprised to be allowed to read his name. He also is a stunning beginner, and gives a memorable performance. Why not him? They sometimes like to award actors who are in the business for some time already. But why not, it would be interesting.
Bradley Cooper in American Hustle. For startes I'm not convinced he's the right person to be here. And secondly his performance is, in my, as well as a lot of other people's, opinion, the least deserving of the lot. He was nominated last year, and didn't stand a chance there against veteran Daniel Day-Lewis. So this year does he stand a chance? I say no, I just don't see it. The backlash would be enormous.
Michael Fassbender in 12 Years a Slave. He is excellent in his role of a monster, a slave owner, a disgusting man. The fact that the film stands such a good chance of winning the big prize can prompt the voters to tick off his name. Against him? No campaigning, and his character is extremely hate able. He seems to be a possibility as does Abdi.
Jonah Hill in The Wolf of Wall Street. To start with, for some (not me) he was a surprise nominee. He plays a funny character, a likable one. The problem is he hasn't been recognized for the role this year, apart from the nominations. Does he have a chance? Don't think so, the role isn't Oscar-ish enough.
Jared Leto in Dallas Buyers Club. He is mesmerizing in his role as an AIDS diagnosed transgender named Rayon. He has won almost everything this season, and he seems like a good choice, the one that if he wins, no one will complain. What's against him? I don't really know, maybe it's the fact that he might seem like the most obvious choice, they might want to go with a surprise.
WHO DESERVES IT: Jared Leto
WHO I AM ROOTING FOR: Jared Leto & Michael Fassbender
WHO WILL WIN: Jared Leto
Coming back tomorrow ro break down the leading acting categories!!
Burt Mizaki
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