I must admit that this year is by far, more interesting than the last. At this point we all knew who would take the Best Picture award, the Director award, Actress and supporting actor. This year, none of those categories are predictable. The only one of all that might be considered an early lock is Emmanuel Lubezki in cinematography for "Birdman". Perhaps Patricia Arquette for "Boyhhod", is in the lead in her category. But as for the rest, nothing is for sure. That's why my Oscar Leaderboard, might come in handy this year. It is a combination of points collected by contenders. The points are awarded for certain spots in predictions, and for winning awards.
Also, we are past the TIFF, NYFF and other festivals. It is the time between major festivals, and before the actual awards season starts. I mean, generally, the six months from September to February are called awards season, but I mean the actual months (December - February) when they do give the awards out. We've seen many films be praised. For example "Birdman" has the momentum now. It got raves in NY, and is by many called a masterpiece. It would be interesting to see it be a major contender. We haven't seen a comedy take the top prize in quite some time, have we? And no, I do not count "The Artist" as a comedy. Then we have "Foxcatcher" which was also praised in Toronto, however was called "too dark" to actually stand a chance. And then we have films, that we haven't seen yet, like "Unbroken" (which is set to premiere in Australia on November 17th. Also we have "Interstellar" - no one has seen it, no one really knows too much about it. And "Into the Woods" which only showed us 1 trailer so far, which did not look to appealing. And it is a musical - no songs in trailer. Anyways, let's move on.
As for now, let's take a look at the main categories:
BEST PICTURE:
1. Birdman (Alejandro G. Innaritu)
2. The Imitation Game (Morten Tyldum)
3. Unbroken (Angelina Jolie)
4. Boyhood (Richard Linklater)
5. Foxcatcher (Bennet Miller)
6. Interstellar (Christopher Nolan)
7. Gone Girl (David Fincher)
8. American Sniper (Clint Eastwood)
9. Whiplash (Damien Chazelle)
10. Into the Woods (Rob Marshall)
BEST DIRECTOR:
1. Alejandro G. Innaritu (Birdman)
2. Bennet Miller (Foxcatcher)
3. Angelina Jolie (Unbroken)
4. Christopher Nolan (Interstellar)
5. Richard Linklater (Boyhood)
BEST ACTOR:
1. Michael Keaton (Birdman)
2. Steve Carell (Foxcatcher)
3. Benedict Cumberbatch (The Imitation Game)
4. Timothy Spall (Mr. Turner)
5. Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything)
BEST ACTRESS:
1. Julianne Moore (Still Alice)
2. Rosamund Pike (Gone Girl)
3. Felicity Jones (The Theory of Everything)
4. Emily Blunt (Into the Woods)
5. Jessica Chastain (A Most Violent Year)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
1. J.K. Simmons (Whiplash)
2. Edward Norton (Birdman)
3. Mark Ruffalo (Foxcatcher)
4. Ethan Hawke (Boyhood)
5. Miyavi (Unbroken)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
1. Patricia Arquette (Boyhood)
2. Keira Knightley (The Imitation Game)
3. Meryl Streep (Into the Woods)
4. Emma Stone (Birdman)
5. Katherine Waterston (Inherent Vice)
This is it for now. Next time we'll take a look at screenplays too. And cinematography and music. See you soon.
Burt Mizaki
Wednesday, October 15, 2014
Monday, August 25, 2014
5 days to Oscar Season
We are now 5 days away from the so called "Oscar Season", and I am back to write regularly on my thoughts, predictions and hopes for the upcoming 6 months. Sometime 6 months ago, 12 Years a Slave (No1 on my Top10 list of 2013) was awarded the Best Picture Oscar. As we are in the middle of the "Oscar year", which begins the day after the annual ceremony, it is time to take a look at what we have.
Couple months ago I posted a list of my then predicted Oscar nominees. Even now I see, some of my mentions are long shots. So I'm gonna take another shot today.
BEST PICTURE:
1. Unbroken (Angelina Jolie)
2. Foxcatcher (Bennet Miller)
3. Fury (David Ayer)
4. Interstellar (Christopher Nolan)
5. Birdman (Alejandro Gonzalez Innaritu)
6. Wild (Jean-Marc Vallee)
7. Mr. Turner (Mike Leigh)
8. The Grand Budapest Hotel (Wes Anderson)
9. Gone Girl (David Fincher)
10. Boyhood (Richard Linklater)
BEST DIRECTOR:
1. Angelina Jolie (Unbroken)
2. Bennet Miller (Foxcatcher)
3. Alejandro Gonzalez Innaritu (Birdman)
4. Christopher Nolan (Interstellar)
5. Wes Anderson (The Grand Budapest Hotel)
BEST ACTOR:
1. Steve Carell (Foxcatcher)
2. Michael Keaton (Birdman)
3. Timothy Spall (Mr. Turner)
4. Jack O'Connell (Unbroken)
5. Channing Tatum (Foxcatcher)
BEST ACTRESS:
1. Rosamund Pike (Gone Girl)
2. Julianne Moore (Maps to the Stars)
3. Amy Adams (Big Eyes)
4. Hilary Swank (The Homesman)
5. Meryl Streep (Into the Woods)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
1. Edward Norton (Birdman)
2. Mark Ruffalo (Foxcatcher)
3. J.K. Simmons (Whiplash)
4. Logan Lerman (Fury)
5. Robert Duvall (Judge)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
1. Patricia Arquette (Boyhood)
2. Imelda Staunton (Pride)
3. Laura Dern (Wild)
4. Emma Stone (Birdman)
5. Oprah Winfrey (Selma)
Why those choices? I don't know. I base it on experience. What certain contenders are thought to be favorites at the time and how they ended up, in the end, in the previous years. The types of movies and performances, the actors and filmmakers. I try to see the actors faces on the nominations screen. The one thing I've learned over the time I've spent on predicting - learn to listen to your intuition. It's more painful when you're wrong after your intuition is telling you something and you ignore it, than being wrong after following your gut.
However complicated that might've sounded, that's about it. It's not a written process, it's not in a book. It's just complicated. Explanation elaboration for the next time.
Burt Mizaki
Couple months ago I posted a list of my then predicted Oscar nominees. Even now I see, some of my mentions are long shots. So I'm gonna take another shot today.
BEST PICTURE:
1. Unbroken (Angelina Jolie)
2. Foxcatcher (Bennet Miller)
3. Fury (David Ayer)
4. Interstellar (Christopher Nolan)
5. Birdman (Alejandro Gonzalez Innaritu)
6. Wild (Jean-Marc Vallee)
7. Mr. Turner (Mike Leigh)
8. The Grand Budapest Hotel (Wes Anderson)
9. Gone Girl (David Fincher)
10. Boyhood (Richard Linklater)
BEST DIRECTOR:
1. Angelina Jolie (Unbroken)
2. Bennet Miller (Foxcatcher)
3. Alejandro Gonzalez Innaritu (Birdman)
4. Christopher Nolan (Interstellar)
5. Wes Anderson (The Grand Budapest Hotel)
BEST ACTOR:
1. Steve Carell (Foxcatcher)
2. Michael Keaton (Birdman)
3. Timothy Spall (Mr. Turner)
4. Jack O'Connell (Unbroken)
5. Channing Tatum (Foxcatcher)
BEST ACTRESS:
1. Rosamund Pike (Gone Girl)
2. Julianne Moore (Maps to the Stars)
3. Amy Adams (Big Eyes)
4. Hilary Swank (The Homesman)
5. Meryl Streep (Into the Woods)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
1. Edward Norton (Birdman)
2. Mark Ruffalo (Foxcatcher)
3. J.K. Simmons (Whiplash)
4. Logan Lerman (Fury)
5. Robert Duvall (Judge)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
1. Patricia Arquette (Boyhood)
2. Imelda Staunton (Pride)
3. Laura Dern (Wild)
4. Emma Stone (Birdman)
5. Oprah Winfrey (Selma)
Why those choices? I don't know. I base it on experience. What certain contenders are thought to be favorites at the time and how they ended up, in the end, in the previous years. The types of movies and performances, the actors and filmmakers. I try to see the actors faces on the nominations screen. The one thing I've learned over the time I've spent on predicting - learn to listen to your intuition. It's more painful when you're wrong after your intuition is telling you something and you ignore it, than being wrong after following your gut.
However complicated that might've sounded, that's about it. It's not a written process, it's not in a book. It's just complicated. Explanation elaboration for the next time.
Burt Mizaki
Thursday, April 3, 2014
Top 10 of 2013
It's a little bit late to do this, but I seem to have forgotten to post my top 10 of the year 2013. As you may know from my 2013 Burt Awards, the list is topped by "12 Years a Slave". I consider it to be a filmmaking masterpiece, the acting is mesmerizing, the direction and the screenplay, everything works perfectly. I also think in other categories, like will it be a film that I will remember from that year. Will it? I'm sure I will. It's powerful and important. As well as the remaining 9 on the list, they are all memorable and extremely watchable (although I don't consider 12 Years a Slave to be watchable). They may be a little bit different from my Awards nominees, as I had time to rematch and reconsider. So here they are:
1. 12 Years a Slave (Steve McQueen)
2. The Wolf of Wall Street (Martin Scorsese)
3. Her (Spike Jonze)
4. Gravity (Alfonso Cuaron)
5. Philomena (Stephen Frears)
6. Dallas Buyers Club (Jean-Marc Vallee)
7. Captain Phillips (Paul Greengrass)
8. Side Effects (Steven Soderbergh)
9. Inside Llewyn Davis (Joel & Ethan Coen)
10. American Hustle (David O. Russel)
So that is my list. Of course probably over the years as I will be re-watching them, it will change. But for the time being that is my 2013 TOP 10.
1. 12 Years a Slave (Steve McQueen)
2. The Wolf of Wall Street (Martin Scorsese)
3. Her (Spike Jonze)
4. Gravity (Alfonso Cuaron)
5. Philomena (Stephen Frears)
6. Dallas Buyers Club (Jean-Marc Vallee)
7. Captain Phillips (Paul Greengrass)
8. Side Effects (Steven Soderbergh)
9. Inside Llewyn Davis (Joel & Ethan Coen)
10. American Hustle (David O. Russel)
So that is my list. Of course probably over the years as I will be re-watching them, it will change. But for the time being that is my 2013 TOP 10.
Thursday, March 13, 2014
21 out of 24
So it's not like I was fast with coming back after the Oscars, but let's say that the atmosphere has cooled down. The year for Oscar-bloggers is now over, and another one begins. So let's look at the passing one, and get ready for the 2014-2015 season.
So many excellent films from Steven Soderbergh's "Side Effects" in February, through "Blue Jasmine" in July, all the way to the 'Awards Jackpot', which is what I like to call the three months before the end of the calendar year, that are packed with hopefuls. The film that collected the most Best Picture awards this season, "12 Years a Slave", made it all the way up to Oscar night and left with the most important prize, despite the fact that another great picture, "Gravity", earned 7 awards. 2 Years in a row we have a situation where the Best Picture winner fails to win Best Director, and leaves the ceremony with 3 Oscars. Some pleasant ones, although no surprises, really. Spike Jonze for "Her" was one of the pleasers. The actors were what we expected, which happens a second year in a row that there are absolutely no surprises there. The last time that we had a considerably unexpected winner here was Meryl Streep for "The Iron Lady", when most predicted Viola Davis (I predicted Streep).
So anyways, there will be more time to think about the 2013 year, but let's take this moment to look into 2014. What do we know? What are we sure of? Let's see.
Statistically only 3 (out of 9) this early predicted BP nominees get the nods. Last year many saw "American Hustle" as a contender. Also some saw "Gravity" coming. So let's not hope that all the broadly mentioned titles will make the cut in a year. Actually, I hope that this year will bring some surprises. We've waited for those long enough.
Best Picture (in likelihood of getting nominated, not winning):
1. Interstellar (Christopher Nolan)
2. Inherent Vice (Paul Thomas Anderson)
3. Foxcatcher (Bennet Miller)
4. Birdman (Alejandro Gonzalez Innaritu)
5. Into the Woods (Rob Marshall)
6. Unbroken (Angeline Jolie)
7. Trash (Stephen Daldry)
8. The Grand Budapest Hotel (Wes Anderson)
9. Big Eyes (Tim Burton)
10. Get On Up (Tate Taylor)
Best Director (the same order):
1. Christopher Nolan (Interstellar)
2. Bennet Miller (Foxcatcher)
3. Alejandro Gonzalez Innaritu (Birdman)
4. Paul Thomas Anderson (Inherent Vice)
5. Tim Burton (Big Eyes)
6. Angelina Jolie (Unbroken)
Best Actor:
1. Steve Carell (Foxcatcher)
2. Michael Keaton (Birdman)
3. Oscar Isaac (A Most Violent Year)
4. Chadwick Boseman (Get On Up)
5. Ralph Fiennes (The Grand Budapest Hotel)
6. Joaquin Phoenix (Inherent Vice)
Best Actress:
1. Amy Adams (Big Eyes)
2. Michelle Williams (Suite Francaise)
3. Berenice Bejo (The Search)
4. Reese Witherspoon (Wild)
5. Meryl Streep/Emily Blunt (Into the Woods) --->>> We don't know if they are going to push her here or in supporting. The play, I think, had the "Witch actress" win a leading actress Tony.
6. Jennifer Garner (Men, Women & Children)
Best Supporting Actor:
1. Mark Ruffalo (Foxcatcher)
2. J.K. Simmons (Whiplash)
3. Albert Brooks (A Most Violent Year)
4. Robert Duvall (The Judge)
5. Edward Norton (Birdman)
6. Johnny Depp (Into the Woods)
Best Supporting Actress:
1. Meryl Streep (The Homesman)
2. Annette Benning (The Search)
3. Viola Davis (Get On Up)
4. Meryl Streep/ Emily Blunt (Into the Woods) ---->> depends on the placing
5. Kristin Scott Thomas (Suite Francaise)
6. Jessica Chastain (A Most Violent Year)
This is all I am offering for now. See you in some time. The next big stop: CANNES.
Burt Mizaki
So many excellent films from Steven Soderbergh's "Side Effects" in February, through "Blue Jasmine" in July, all the way to the 'Awards Jackpot', which is what I like to call the three months before the end of the calendar year, that are packed with hopefuls. The film that collected the most Best Picture awards this season, "12 Years a Slave", made it all the way up to Oscar night and left with the most important prize, despite the fact that another great picture, "Gravity", earned 7 awards. 2 Years in a row we have a situation where the Best Picture winner fails to win Best Director, and leaves the ceremony with 3 Oscars. Some pleasant ones, although no surprises, really. Spike Jonze for "Her" was one of the pleasers. The actors were what we expected, which happens a second year in a row that there are absolutely no surprises there. The last time that we had a considerably unexpected winner here was Meryl Streep for "The Iron Lady", when most predicted Viola Davis (I predicted Streep).
So anyways, there will be more time to think about the 2013 year, but let's take this moment to look into 2014. What do we know? What are we sure of? Let's see.
Statistically only 3 (out of 9) this early predicted BP nominees get the nods. Last year many saw "American Hustle" as a contender. Also some saw "Gravity" coming. So let's not hope that all the broadly mentioned titles will make the cut in a year. Actually, I hope that this year will bring some surprises. We've waited for those long enough.
Best Picture (in likelihood of getting nominated, not winning):
1. Interstellar (Christopher Nolan)
2. Inherent Vice (Paul Thomas Anderson)
3. Foxcatcher (Bennet Miller)
4. Birdman (Alejandro Gonzalez Innaritu)
5. Into the Woods (Rob Marshall)
6. Unbroken (Angeline Jolie)
7. Trash (Stephen Daldry)
8. The Grand Budapest Hotel (Wes Anderson)
9. Big Eyes (Tim Burton)
10. Get On Up (Tate Taylor)
Best Director (the same order):
1. Christopher Nolan (Interstellar)
2. Bennet Miller (Foxcatcher)
3. Alejandro Gonzalez Innaritu (Birdman)
4. Paul Thomas Anderson (Inherent Vice)
5. Tim Burton (Big Eyes)
6. Angelina Jolie (Unbroken)
Best Actor:
1. Steve Carell (Foxcatcher)
2. Michael Keaton (Birdman)
3. Oscar Isaac (A Most Violent Year)
4. Chadwick Boseman (Get On Up)
5. Ralph Fiennes (The Grand Budapest Hotel)
6. Joaquin Phoenix (Inherent Vice)
Best Actress:
1. Amy Adams (Big Eyes)
2. Michelle Williams (Suite Francaise)
3. Berenice Bejo (The Search)
4. Reese Witherspoon (Wild)
5. Meryl Streep/Emily Blunt (Into the Woods) --->>> We don't know if they are going to push her here or in supporting. The play, I think, had the "Witch actress" win a leading actress Tony.
6. Jennifer Garner (Men, Women & Children)
Best Supporting Actor:
1. Mark Ruffalo (Foxcatcher)
2. J.K. Simmons (Whiplash)
3. Albert Brooks (A Most Violent Year)
4. Robert Duvall (The Judge)
5. Edward Norton (Birdman)
6. Johnny Depp (Into the Woods)
Best Supporting Actress:
1. Meryl Streep (The Homesman)
2. Annette Benning (The Search)
3. Viola Davis (Get On Up)
4. Meryl Streep/ Emily Blunt (Into the Woods) ---->> depends on the placing
5. Kristin Scott Thomas (Suite Francaise)
6. Jessica Chastain (A Most Violent Year)
This is all I am offering for now. See you in some time. The next big stop: CANNES.
Burt Mizaki
Saturday, March 1, 2014
The 2014 Final Oscar Predictions
THE FINAL OSCAR PREDICTIONS
Here comes the weekend we have been waiting for. Since september people started frantically looking for possible outcomes. The frontrunners changed, the currents switched. Remember when "The Wolf of Wall Street" was in 1 place? When Leo and Marty were at the top of their categories? Well a lot has changed. We also had a couple solid months from 12 Years a Slave, Steve McQueen, Michael Fassbender and Chiwetel Ejiofor. The latter three slowly faded away, and made space for Cuaron, Leto and McConaughey, respectively. Only the Best Picture here seems to have been on the top since early fall. And that also is arguable as Gravity is getting on their backs. Whatever happens, good luck with your predictions, and I sincerely hope I do well.
Also it is amazing to notice that Cate Blanchett has been the frontrunner in her category for the last 8 months. Craaaazy. That doesn't happen very often. The McConaissance power charging for the Oscar only kicked in after the Golden Globes and the SAGs. INTERESTING trivia: The last 9 years the SAG best actor winner went on to win the Oscar. The last exception was SAG winner Johnny Depp (Pirates of the Caribbean) lost to Sean Penn (Mystic River).
So who will win? I don't know. It is very frustrating because some categories aren't obvious at all. Last year I didn't guess Ang Lee winning Best Director, as I didn't guess Anna Karenina winning.
So best of luck to everyone and let's get this baby started!
NOTE: My final picks are in YELLOW. My crazy picks (what my hunch tells me will win, but I feel it would not be reasonable) are in GREEN. Some of them agree with the reasonable choice, but some of them are different. Also the OSCAR RACE leaderboard winners in PINK.
The 86th Academy Awards:
BEST PICTURE
RACE WINNER: 12 Years a Slave
MY CRAZY INSTINCT: 12 Years a Slave
WILL WIN: 12 Years a Slave
BEST DIRECTOR
RACE WINNER: Alfonso Cuaron (Gravity)
MY CRAZY INSTINCT: Alfonso Cuaron
WILL WIN: Alfonso Cuaron
BEST ACTOR
RACE WINNER: Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club)
MY CRAZY INSTINCT: Chiwetel Ejiofor (12 Years a Slave)
WILL WIN: Matthew McConaughey
BEST ACTRESS
RACE WINNER: Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine)
MY CRAZY INSTINCT: Cate Blanchett
WILL WIN: Cate Blanchett
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
RACE WINNER: Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club)
MY CRAZY INSTINCT: Jared Leto
WILL WIN: Jared Leto
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
RACE WINNER: Lupita Nyong'o (12 Years a Slave)
MY CRAZY INSTINCT: Jennifer Lawrence (American Hustle)
WILL WIN: Lupita Nyong'o
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
RACE WINNER: Her (Spike Jonze)
MY CRAZY INSTINCT: American Hustle (Eric Warren Singer & David O. Russel)
WILL WIN: Spike Jonze (Her)
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
RACE WINNER: 12 Years a Slave (John Ridley)
MY CRAZY INSTINCT: 12 Years a Slave
WILL WIN: 12 Years a Slave
BEST FILM EDITING
FRONTRUNNER: Gravity (Alfonso Cuaron & Mark Sanger)
MY CRAZY INSTINCT: Captain Phillips (Christopher Rouse)
WILL WIN: Captain Phillips
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
RACE WINNER: Gravity (Emmanuel Lubezki)
MY CRAZY INSTINCT: Gravity
WILL WIN: Gravity
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
RACE WINNER: Gravity (Steven Price)
MY CRAZY INSTINCT: Philomena (Alexandre Desplat)
WILL WIN: Gravity (Steven Price)
BEST PRODUCTON DESIGN
FRONTRUNNER: The Great Gatsby
MY CRAZY INSTINCT: 12 Years a Slave
WILL WIN: The Great Gatsby
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
FRONTRUNNER: The Great Gatsby
MY CRAZY INSTINCT: American Hustle
WILL WIN: 12 Years a Slave
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
FRONTRUNNER: Gravity
MY CRAZY INSTINCT: Gravity
WILL WIN: Gravity
BEST SOUND EDITING
FRONTRUNNER: Gravity
MY CRAZY INSTINCT: All Is Lost
WILL WIN: Gravity
BEST SOUND MIXING
FRONTRUNNER: Gravity
MY CRAZY INSTINCT: Gravity
WILL WIN: Gravity
BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
FRONTRUNNER: Dallas Buyers Club
MY CRAZY INSTINCT: Dallas Buyers Club
WILL WIN: Dallas Buyers Club
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
FRONTRUNNER: "Let It Go"
MY CRAZY INSTINCT: "Let It Go"
WILL WIN: "Let It Go"
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
FRONTRUNNER: Frozen
MY CRAZY INSTINCT: Frozen
WILL WIN: Frozen
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
FRONTRUNNER: The Act of Killing
MY CRAZY INSTINCT: 20 Feet from Stardom
WILL WIN: 20 Feet from Stardom
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
FRONTRUNNER: The Great Beauty (Italy)
MY CRAZY INSTINCT: The Hunt (Denmark)
WILL WIN: The Great Beauty (Italy)
BEST ANIMATED SHORT
FRONTRUNNER: Get a Horse!
MY CRAZY INSTINCT: Mr Hublot
WILL WIN: Get a Horse!
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
FRONTRUNNER: The Voorman Problem
MY CRAZY INSTINCT: Helium
WILL WIN: Helium
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
FRONTRUNNER: The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life
MY CRAZY INSTINCT: The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life
WILL WIN: The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life
PROJECTED WINS:
Gravity: 6
12 Years a Slave: 4
Dallas Buyers Club: 3
Burt Mizaki
Friday, February 28, 2014
Breakin' Down: Picture, Actors and Directors
With time running out, I have to speed things up and break down four categories today. Two of them are still in play, and surprisingly the one that's the most open for a rivalry is Best Picture. So let's start with that.
All the nominees obviously have a chance of winning, hence the title "nominee". But let's be honest, it's a two horse race. Three if you really think American Hustle has a chance. So for me it's down to 12 Years a Slave and Gravity, and I must say, I am not sure. On one side I hate predicting Picture/Director splits, and even more, twice in two years, but that's what I'm gonna do. I say 12 Years a Slave! Despite the fact that it has been reported that some Academy members refuse to watch it. I still believe that enough of them have the sense of what's right. I think the fact that Gravity's screenplay is poor, might do harm to the picture overall. And 12 Years a Slave seems like an important one. Will you really be saying in the future, that 2013's BP went to a movie about a woman floating in space trying to come back to Earth? All the precursors went with 12 Years a Slave, Golden Globes, BAFTAs, a PGA tie, BFCA. And what's also interesting is that the majority of BP winners have at least a nomination for the SAG Ensemble award, whereas Gravity didn't get there.
WHO DESERVES TO WIN: 12 Years a Slave
WHO WILL WIN: 12 Years a Slave
Let's look at the men, who created some of these pictures. The Directors, what do they really do? As Michael Douglas mentioned, preparing to hand the award to Michel Hazanavicius in 2012, a director once came into a bank to get a loan for a movie. The banker asked: "You're a director? Tell me, what do you really do? The screenwriter writes the film, the editor obviously puts it together, the cameraman shoots the damn thing. So i ask again what does a director do?" The director stood there, thought for a moment, and then went to a different bank.
So what do they do? The truth is that they put it all together, all the other mentioned people's work. They keep it working, they add their imagination, they decide how to shoot something, how the actors should act, it's what makes a film, a film. So what did these mysterious men come up with this year? Cuaron, McQueen, Russel, Payne and Scorsese. They all did a fine job. Cuaron did the impossible, he directed a film, only imagining the outcome, he thought of it in every detail. McQueen gave us a piece of art, a film that works thanks to his masterful sense of direction. Russel directed his American Hustle to a light and amusing picture, which has its interesting moments and the director's choices. Payne made a funny and nicely done film, where everything seems so amusingly subtle. Scorsese went all the way with a film that's an icebreaker. The speed of it, and the dynamics of his direction are truly unbelievable. Cuaron has won practically everything, even the Brit-favoring BAFTA. So where can it go? We can't really look at last year, where the frontrunner wasn't even nominated. But let's do nevertheless. It was Ang Lee, who hasn't won anything that year, so maybe there can be an upset from McQueen?
WHO DESERVES IT: Steve McQueen
WHO WILL WIN: Alfonso Cuaron
Let's take a look at both of the leading acting categories. The guys are pretty much down to three with one in the head of the rest. It's McConaughey and his McConaissance in the front, but looking back to see how far behind him are DiCaprio and Ejiofor. Not that far as it would seem. So who wins? McConaughey grabbed everything on the way so far, but he did NOT compete directly with DiCaprio yet. The latter missed out on the SAGs, and in most of the award shows, he is in a comedy category while McConaughey is in Drama. I still am sure that it's McConaughey's Oscar to lose, but they guys are close behind. Some people say that "True Detective" helps Matthew. But I think that it doesn't. And that is due to the fact that he is way better in the TV series. Which might make his Woodruff role look weaker. But it might no. Who knows? No one ever will.
WHO DESERVES IT: All three men - Leonardo DiCaprio, Matthew McConaughey, Chiwetel Ejiofor
WHO WILL WIN: Matthew McConaughey
WHO COULD WIN: I really wouldn't be that surprised if either of the others would win. But my moneys is on Matt, and Chiwetel in second place.
The ladies. It obviously has to go to Blanchett. She has won everything, and so she deserves it. She was phenomenal. They all were. Judi Dench was very good, actually the only one of the 5 that really convinced me to being her character. Sandra Bullock was also good, she did something very new. Meryl Streep is excellent, though many disagree, she was one of the best of the year. and Adams who also did a great job on American Hustle, and with 5 nominations is on the verge of joining the Glenn Close, 6nom/0win club. All of them were different. All of them were fantastic. All of them deserve to put up a fight for that win. Cate has the obvious lead having won so much, and being voted for before thought about. It's just something automatic this year, it obviously has to go to Cate, so they vote for her. If there wasn't so much buzz around her this year, would she still be the frontrunner? Or would it be the 1% possible spoiler, Amy Adams. Maybe Sandra Bullock, that is gaining attention. Maybe Streep? Although she has won two years ago, and I don't see her accepting her fourth Oscar so soon. Or maybe Dame Judi Dench? She might be given the Oscar as a sort of 'tipping the hat' for her original performance and wonderful career.
WHO DESERVES IT: Cate Blanchett & Judi Dench (But really all of them were great)
WHO WILL WIN: Cate Blanchett
My final predictions, I will put up tomorrow. I still need to decide on a few things. I gotta say the most difficult ones for me are Best Original Screenplay, Costume Design and Production Design. The leading actor also haunts me. So see you tomorrow, and good luck with your predictions.
Burt Mizaki
All the nominees obviously have a chance of winning, hence the title "nominee". But let's be honest, it's a two horse race. Three if you really think American Hustle has a chance. So for me it's down to 12 Years a Slave and Gravity, and I must say, I am not sure. On one side I hate predicting Picture/Director splits, and even more, twice in two years, but that's what I'm gonna do. I say 12 Years a Slave! Despite the fact that it has been reported that some Academy members refuse to watch it. I still believe that enough of them have the sense of what's right. I think the fact that Gravity's screenplay is poor, might do harm to the picture overall. And 12 Years a Slave seems like an important one. Will you really be saying in the future, that 2013's BP went to a movie about a woman floating in space trying to come back to Earth? All the precursors went with 12 Years a Slave, Golden Globes, BAFTAs, a PGA tie, BFCA. And what's also interesting is that the majority of BP winners have at least a nomination for the SAG Ensemble award, whereas Gravity didn't get there.
WHO DESERVES TO WIN: 12 Years a Slave
WHO WILL WIN: 12 Years a Slave
Let's look at the men, who created some of these pictures. The Directors, what do they really do? As Michael Douglas mentioned, preparing to hand the award to Michel Hazanavicius in 2012, a director once came into a bank to get a loan for a movie. The banker asked: "You're a director? Tell me, what do you really do? The screenwriter writes the film, the editor obviously puts it together, the cameraman shoots the damn thing. So i ask again what does a director do?" The director stood there, thought for a moment, and then went to a different bank.
So what do they do? The truth is that they put it all together, all the other mentioned people's work. They keep it working, they add their imagination, they decide how to shoot something, how the actors should act, it's what makes a film, a film. So what did these mysterious men come up with this year? Cuaron, McQueen, Russel, Payne and Scorsese. They all did a fine job. Cuaron did the impossible, he directed a film, only imagining the outcome, he thought of it in every detail. McQueen gave us a piece of art, a film that works thanks to his masterful sense of direction. Russel directed his American Hustle to a light and amusing picture, which has its interesting moments and the director's choices. Payne made a funny and nicely done film, where everything seems so amusingly subtle. Scorsese went all the way with a film that's an icebreaker. The speed of it, and the dynamics of his direction are truly unbelievable. Cuaron has won practically everything, even the Brit-favoring BAFTA. So where can it go? We can't really look at last year, where the frontrunner wasn't even nominated. But let's do nevertheless. It was Ang Lee, who hasn't won anything that year, so maybe there can be an upset from McQueen?
WHO DESERVES IT: Steve McQueen
WHO WILL WIN: Alfonso Cuaron
Let's take a look at both of the leading acting categories. The guys are pretty much down to three with one in the head of the rest. It's McConaughey and his McConaissance in the front, but looking back to see how far behind him are DiCaprio and Ejiofor. Not that far as it would seem. So who wins? McConaughey grabbed everything on the way so far, but he did NOT compete directly with DiCaprio yet. The latter missed out on the SAGs, and in most of the award shows, he is in a comedy category while McConaughey is in Drama. I still am sure that it's McConaughey's Oscar to lose, but they guys are close behind. Some people say that "True Detective" helps Matthew. But I think that it doesn't. And that is due to the fact that he is way better in the TV series. Which might make his Woodruff role look weaker. But it might no. Who knows? No one ever will.
WHO DESERVES IT: All three men - Leonardo DiCaprio, Matthew McConaughey, Chiwetel Ejiofor
WHO WILL WIN: Matthew McConaughey
WHO COULD WIN: I really wouldn't be that surprised if either of the others would win. But my moneys is on Matt, and Chiwetel in second place.
The ladies. It obviously has to go to Blanchett. She has won everything, and so she deserves it. She was phenomenal. They all were. Judi Dench was very good, actually the only one of the 5 that really convinced me to being her character. Sandra Bullock was also good, she did something very new. Meryl Streep is excellent, though many disagree, she was one of the best of the year. and Adams who also did a great job on American Hustle, and with 5 nominations is on the verge of joining the Glenn Close, 6nom/0win club. All of them were different. All of them were fantastic. All of them deserve to put up a fight for that win. Cate has the obvious lead having won so much, and being voted for before thought about. It's just something automatic this year, it obviously has to go to Cate, so they vote for her. If there wasn't so much buzz around her this year, would she still be the frontrunner? Or would it be the 1% possible spoiler, Amy Adams. Maybe Sandra Bullock, that is gaining attention. Maybe Streep? Although she has won two years ago, and I don't see her accepting her fourth Oscar so soon. Or maybe Dame Judi Dench? She might be given the Oscar as a sort of 'tipping the hat' for her original performance and wonderful career.
WHO DESERVES IT: Cate Blanchett & Judi Dench (But really all of them were great)
WHO WILL WIN: Cate Blanchett
My final predictions, I will put up tomorrow. I still need to decide on a few things. I gotta say the most difficult ones for me are Best Original Screenplay, Costume Design and Production Design. The leading actor also haunts me. So see you tomorrow, and good luck with your predictions.
Burt Mizaki
Wednesday, February 26, 2014
Breakin' down: Supporting Acting
BREAKING DOWN THE SUPPORTING ACTORS
With 4 days to go, I have yet to post my final predictions. I will do so on Saturday. Right now I'm going to look closer into the supporting acting categories.
First let's look at the ladies. Who do we have?
Sally Hawkins in Blue Jasmine. She plays a cute and naive divorced mother. Through her terrible annoyance she is so interestingly charming and convincing. What is in her favor? Well she's definitely not the obvious choice, might be a vote of a member who is not really decided. I don't know what to say else in her favor, because she doesn't really stand a chance.
Jennifer Lawrence in American Hustle. 14 times in history has a film been nominated in a all four acting categories before. And in all but two cases the film had at least one winner. That bodes well for the seemingly only hope for American Hustle. What is against her? Do we really think that she will pull off a consecutive win at 24? I mean, if they choose her, fine, but will they? Will a voter choose Lawrence to be his 24 year old two time Oscar winner? Having won more Oscars than Judi Dench, Bruce Dern, Glenn Close or Tommy Lee Jones? I wouldn't put my money on that, but if people think so, then maybe there's something to it.
Lupita Nyong'o in 12 Years a Slave. First of all she is great in the movie. Second of all she is a charming person and is loved by everyone. And most of all, 12 Years a Slave might face a problem of winning BP, but not much besides that. So she might be a place to award the film. Very often in the last several years were black actresses awarded with this particular Oscar. She also won a S.A.G. which is often a good predictor of the eventual Oscar winner.
Julia Roberts in August: Osage County. Well she has a problem. She certainly lost a lot of steam right before the voting began, and might not be a memorable contender at this point. In her defense, she plays an unexpectedly dark character and scares the hell out of the audience with her anger. I actually don't see this happening anymore, but we'll see.
June Squibb in Nebraska. She is very funny in the movie, surprisingly vulgar and it's a performance that might just bring her the crowning of her career. We all love to see mature actors get the award, they are always so charming upstage. The video that June Squibb recorded "Meet the Nominees" for Jimmy Kimmel was hilarious, and itself deserves recognition. She hash;t won anything this season, but that might be a reason for the Academy to pull out a surprise rabbit out of the hat.
Also a very reliable website, PredictWise, gives Nyong'o 54% chance of winning, while Lawrence got 40%.
So here they are, all 5 of them. Who do I think will win? Who do I want to win? And who deserves to win? All different questions, and all ought to be answered.
WHO DESERVES IT: Lupita Nyong'o or June Squibb
WHO I AM ROOTING FOR: Lupita Nyong'o
WHO WILL WIN: Lupita Nyong'o
Now let's look at the guys.
Barkhad Abdi in Captain Phillips. He seems to be the choice that would please everyone, as it did at the BAFTAs. Presenter Emma Thompson was pleasantly surprised to be allowed to read his name. He also is a stunning beginner, and gives a memorable performance. Why not him? They sometimes like to award actors who are in the business for some time already. But why not, it would be interesting.
Bradley Cooper in American Hustle. For startes I'm not convinced he's the right person to be here. And secondly his performance is, in my, as well as a lot of other people's, opinion, the least deserving of the lot. He was nominated last year, and didn't stand a chance there against veteran Daniel Day-Lewis. So this year does he stand a chance? I say no, I just don't see it. The backlash would be enormous.
Michael Fassbender in 12 Years a Slave. He is excellent in his role of a monster, a slave owner, a disgusting man. The fact that the film stands such a good chance of winning the big prize can prompt the voters to tick off his name. Against him? No campaigning, and his character is extremely hate able. He seems to be a possibility as does Abdi.
Jonah Hill in The Wolf of Wall Street. To start with, for some (not me) he was a surprise nominee. He plays a funny character, a likable one. The problem is he hasn't been recognized for the role this year, apart from the nominations. Does he have a chance? Don't think so, the role isn't Oscar-ish enough.
Jared Leto in Dallas Buyers Club. He is mesmerizing in his role as an AIDS diagnosed transgender named Rayon. He has won almost everything this season, and he seems like a good choice, the one that if he wins, no one will complain. What's against him? I don't really know, maybe it's the fact that he might seem like the most obvious choice, they might want to go with a surprise.
WHO DESERVES IT: Jared Leto
WHO I AM ROOTING FOR: Jared Leto & Michael Fassbender
WHO WILL WIN: Jared Leto
Coming back tomorrow ro break down the leading acting categories!!
Burt Mizaki
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