Tis the season!

...but let's do our best! This is the last prediction before Christmas, more to come after. However this time I will include most of the categories in the post below. Furthermore I will add the remaining categories to the 'Oscar Race Leaderboard'. As for the predictions, Saving Mr. Banks will be dropping now, having lost it's magical momentum. But hey - Everything is going to change on January 12th, when the Globes winners ar announced, and again on the 16th when the Oscar nominations are revealed. Merry Christmas, here they are:

Best Picture:
1. 12 Years a Slave (Steve McQueen) 2. American Hustle (David O. Russel) 3. Gravity (Alfonso Cuaron) 4. Captain Phillips (Paul Greengrass) 5. The Wolf of Wall Street (Martin Scorsese) 6. Inside Llewyn Davis (Joel & Ethan Coen) 7. Nebraska (Alexander Payne) 8. Saving Mr. Banks (John Lee Hancock) 9. Her (Spike Jonze)

Best Director:
1. Steve McQueen (12 Years a Slave) 2. Alfonso Cuaron (Gravity) 3. David O. Russel (American Hustle) 4. Martin Scorsese (The Wolf of Wall Street) 5. Paul Greengrass (Captain Phillips)
Best Actor:
1. Chiwetel Ejiofor (12 Years a Slave) 2. Mathew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club) 3. Bruce Dern (Nebraska) 4. Tom Hanks (Captain Phillips) 5. Robert Redford (All Is Lost)
Best Actress:

1. Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine) 2. Emma Thompson (Saving Mr. Banks) 3. Judi Dench (Philomena) 4. Sandra Bullock (Gravity) 5. Meryl Streep (August: Osage County)

Best Supporting Actor:
1. Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club) 2. Michael Fassbender (12 Years a Slave) 3. Barkhad Abdi (Captain Phillips) 4. Tom Hanks (Saving Mr. Banks) 5. Jonah Hill (The Wolf of Wall Street)

Best Supporting Actress:
1. Lupita Nyong'O (12 Years a Slave) 2. Julia Roberts (August: Osage County) 3. Oprah Winfrey (Lee Daniels' The Butler) 4. Jennifer Lawrence (American Hustle) 5. June Squibb (Nebraska)

Best Original Screenplay:
1. Her (Spike Jonze) 2. Inside Llewyn Davis (Joel & Ethan Coen) 3. American Hustle (Eric Singer & David O. Russel) 4. Blue Jasmine (Woody Allen) 5. Nebraska (Bob Nelson)

Best Adapted Screenplay:
1. 12 Years a Slave (John Ridley) 2. The Wolf of Wall Street (Terrence Winter) 3. Captain Phillips (Billy Ray) 4. August: Osage County (Tracy Letts) 5. Philomena (Steve Coogan & Jeff Pope)

Best Foreign Language Film:

1. The Hunt (Denmark) 2. The Great Beauty (Italy) 3. The Broken Circle Breakdown (Belgium) 4. Omar (Palestine) 5. Two Lives (Germany)


Best Cinematography:

1. Gravity (Emmanuel Lubezki) 2. 12 Years a Slave (Sean Bobbit) 3. Inside Llewyn Davis (Bruno Delbonnel)
4. Captain Phillips (Barry Ackroyd)
5. Her (Hoyte Van Hoytema)


Best Film Editing:

1. Gravity (Alfonso Cuaron & Mark Sanger)
2. 12 Years a Slave (Joe Walker)
3. The Wolf of Wall Street (Thelma Schoonmaker)
4. Captain Phillips (Christopher Rouse)
5. Rush (Daniel P. Hanley & Mike Hill)


Best Production Design:
1. 12 Years a Slave (Adam Stochausen & Alice Baker)
2. The Great Gatsby (Catherine Martin & Beverly Dunn)
3. The Hobbit: Desolation of Smaug (Dan Hennah & Ra Vincent)
4. Saving Mr. Banks (Michael Corenblith & Susan Benjamin)
5. American Hustle (Judy Becker & Heather Loeffler)

Best Costume Design:
1. 12 Years a Slave (Patricia Norris)
2. The Great Gatsby (Catherine Martin)
3. The Book Thief (Anna B. Sheppard)
4. American Hustle (Michael Wilkinson)
5. The Invisible Woman (Michael O'Connor)

Best Original Score:
1. 12 Years a Slave (Hans Zimmer)
2. Gravity (Steven Price)
3. Saving Mr. Banks (Thomas Newman)
4. The Book Thief (John Williams)
5. All Is Lost (Alexander Ebert)

Best Original Song:
1. "Let It Go" - Frozen (Robert Lopez & Kristen Anderson-Lopez)
2. "Ordinary Love" - Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom (U2)
3. "So You Know What It's Like" - Short Term 12 (Keith Stanfield)
4. "Young & Beautiful" - The Great Gatsby (Lana Del Rey)
5. "The Moon Song" - Her (Karen O)

Best Visual Effects:
1. Gravity
2. The Hobbit: Desolation of Smaug
3. Pacific Rim
4. Oblivion
5. Iron Man 3

Best Makeup & Hairstyling:
1. American Hustle 
2. The Lone Ranger
3. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire

Best Sound Mixing:
1. Gravity
2. Rush
3. Captain Phillips
4. Lone Survivor
5. All Is Lost

Best Sound Editing:
1. Gravity
2. Rush
3. 12 Years a Slave
4. All Is Lost
5. Lone Survivor



Predicted nominations:
1. 12 Years a Slave - 12 nominations
2. Gravity - 9 nominations
3. Captain Phillips - 8 nominations
4. American Hustle - 7 nominations
5. The Wolf of Wall Street - 5 nominations
5. Saving Mr. Banks - 5 nominations
7. All Is Lost - 4 nominations
7. Nebraska - 4 nominations
7. Her - 4 nominations
10. Rush - 3 nominations
10. The Great Gatsby - 3 nominations
10. Inside Llewyn Davis - 3 nominations

Predicted wins:
1. 12 Years a Slave - 8 wins
2. Gravity - 5 wins
3. Frozen - 2 wins (I didn't mention the Animated Feature category, but I am pretty sure it's gonna win


)
4. Dallas Buyers Club - 1 win
4. Her - 1 win
4. Blue Jasmine - 1 win
4. American Hustle - 1 win
4. The Hunt - 1 win

Hop on, hop off.

       I'll tell you, this race is getting weird, unexpected and exciting. It reminds me of a phrase from "Now You See Me": "The closer you think you are, the less you will actually see." In other words the more we think this year's battle for the "Golden Knights" is over, the closer we are to close on one or two locks, the more twists we get and more things surprise us.
      What's more confusing everyone seems to be a favorite and then suddenly he's totally out of the game. A funny year it is.
      Today's Golden Globes showed us no different by nominating "American Hustle" in 7 categories despite it getting rather poor reviews. Also Oprah has been skipped and everything and everyone on "Saving Mr. Banks" except Emma Thompson.
      28 - a magical number. Why? Well if you don't know the answer to a question that concerns acting, you say "Meryl Streep". And so it happens that today the HFPA honored Streep with a 28th nomination in the Com/Mus category or her performance in "August: Osage County".
      Again, "The Wolf of Wall Street" raises a couple eyebrows, as there are doubts wether all the voters have actually seen the movie. It would be interesting if the second most prestigious american film awards nominated someone based on speculation, a hunch and trailers.
      In the end not much changes as far as the Oscar race is concerned. Although there are minor movements in Best Picture, Best Director, Best Supporting Actor. I decided to switch the places in the Director category to see how that looks. Also adding new categories.
    Each category will now how a separate page in which you can check the last predicted position of each contender.

Here are the predix:

Best Picture:
1. 12 Years a Slave (Steve McQueen)
2. Gravity (Alfonso Cuaron)
3. Captain Phillips (Paul Greengrass)
4. Saving Mr. Banks (John Lee Hancock)
5. American Hustle (David O. Russel)
6. The Wolf of Wall Street (Martin Scorsese)
7. Inside Llewyn Davis (Joel & Ethan Coen)
8. Nebraska (Alexander Payne)
9. Her (Spike Jonze)

Best Director:
1. Alfonso Cuaron (Gravity)
2. Steve McQueen (12 Years a Slave)
3. Paul Greengrass (Captain Phillips)
4. Martin Scorsese (The Wolf of Wall Street)
5. Alexander Payne (Nebraska)

Best Supporting Actor:
1. Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club)
2. Michael Fassbender (12 Years a Slave)
3. Tom Hanks (Saving Mr. Banks)
4. James Gandolfini (Enough Said)
5. Barkhad Abdi (Captain Phillips

Best Adapted Screenplay:
1. 12 Years a Slave (John Ridley)
2. The Wolf of Wall Street (Terrence Winter)
3. August: Osage County (Tracy Letts)
4. Captain Phillips (Billy Ray)
5. Philomena (Steve Coogan & Jeff Pope)

Best Original Score:
1. 12 Years a Slave (Hans Zimmer)
2. Saving Mr. Banks (Thomas Newman)
3. Gravity (Steven Price)
4. The Book Thief (John Williams)
5. Philomena (Alexandre Desplat)

Best Cinematography:
1. Gravity (Emmanuel Lubezki)
2. 12 Years a Slave (Sean Bobbit)
3. Inside Llewyn Davis (Bruno Delbonnel)
4. Captain Phillips (Barry Ackroyd)
5. Rush (Anthony Dod Mantle)

Best Film Editing:
1. Gravity (Alfonso Cuaron & Mark Sanger)
2. 12 Years a Slave (Joe Walker)
3. The Wolf of Wall Street (Thelma Schoonmaker)
4. American Hustle (Jay Cassidy & Crispin Struthers)
5. Captain Phillips (Chrostopher Rouse)

Look at the Globes!

     We're all concerned about the Oscars so much that most of us forgot about the awards that start the "major awards season" - the Golden Globes. No Ricky Gervais but - I think Tina and Amy are doing a fine job making a joke out of the most powerful people in Hollywood. It's always a nice evening for the celebs to get together blah, blah, blah... Until someone throws themselves at someone else's throat, or someone shows up naked, we care about the actual awards. 

     It's obviously different than the Oscars, not only because they are the awards No2, it's because weird people get awarded. Looooots of examples. I mean "Hangover" was fun but did it really deserve a Globe? Well never mind that they must've had a damn good reason, and i'm fine with that. 

     Films are divided into comedy/musical and drama which is absurd, having seen "Les Miserables" compete in the same category as "Silver Linings Playbook". 

    Without further comments let's just move on to the one and only Globes Predixxx.

Best Motion Picture Drama:
1. 12 Years a Slave (Steve McQueen)
2. Gravity (Alfonso Cuaron)
3. Captain Phillips (Paul Greengrass)
4. Saving Mr. Banks (John Lee Hancock)
5. Prisoners (Denis Villeneuve)

Best Motion Picture Comedy or Musical:
1. Inside Llewyn Davis (Joel & Ethan Coen)
2. Nebraska (Alexander Payne)
3. The Wolf of Wall Street (Martin Scorsese)
4. Her (Spike Jonze)
5. August: Osage County (John Wells)

Best Director:
1. Alfonso Cuaron (Gravity)
2. Steve McQueen (12 Years a Slave)
3. Martin Scorsese (The Wolf of Wall Street)
4. Joel & Ethan Coen (Inside Llewyn Davis)
5. Spike Jonze (Her)

Best Actor in a Motion Picture Drama:
1. Chiwetel Ejiofor (12 Years a Slave)
2. Mathew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club)
3. Robert Redford (All Is Lost)
4. Tom Hanks (Captain Phillips)
5. Forest Whitaker (Lee Daniels' The Butler)

Best Actress in a Motion Picture Drama:
1. Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine)
2. Sandra Bullock (Gravity)
3. Emma Thompson (Saving Mr. Banks)
4. Judi Dench (Philomena)
5. Brie Larson (Short Term 12)

Best Actor in a Motion Picture Comedy or Musical:
1. Bruce Dern (Nebraska)
2. Leonardo Di Caprio (The Wolf of Wall Street)
3. Joaquin Phoenix (Her)
4. Oscar Isaac (Inside Llewyn Davis)
5. James Gandolfini (Enough Said)

Best Actress in a Motion Picture Comedy or Musical:
1. Meryl Streep (August: Osage County)
2. Julia Louis-Dreyfus (Enough Said)
3. Julie Delpy (Before Midnight)
4. Amy Adams (American Hustle)
5. Greta Gerwig (Frances Ha)

Best Supporting Actor in a Motion Picture:
1. Michael Fassbender (12 Years a Slave)
2. Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club)
3. Tom Hanks (Saving Mr. Banks)
4. Jonah Hill (The Wolf of Wall Street)
5. Harrison Ford (42)

Best Supporting Actress in a Motion Picture:
1. Oprah Winfrey (Lee Daniels' The Butler)
2. Lupita Nyong'O (12 Years a Slave)
3. Jennifer Lawrence (American Hustle)
4. Julia Roberts (August: Osage County)
5. Octavia Spencer (Fruitvale Station)


Best Screenplay:
1. 12 Years a Slave (John Ridley)
2. The Wolf of Wall Street (Terence Winter)
3. Blue Jasmine (Woody Allen)
4. August: Osage County (Tracy Letts)
5. Inside Llewyn Davis (Joel & Ethan Coen)


So we'll see how much of that is true on Thursday, when the nominations are announced.
Burt.

A sudden twist

      This wasn't anticipated, I didn't think I would be writing again so soon, but here I am. Today, the National Board of Review announced their awards, which shook the ground a bit. Also I have read a couple of "American Hustle" reviews, which weren't exactly flattering. 

      First of all Best Film - Her. It is a little surprise although I am happy, because I read a couple of good reviews and it's nice to have Spike Jonze back in the spotlight as he won the Best Director award. Next are acting awards, with Emma Thompson, beating Cate Blanchett, for her portrayal of P.L. Travers in "Saving Mr. Banks". Best Actor was given to Bruce Dern for his performance in "Nebraska". Supporting categories: Will Forte (Nebraska) and Octavia Spencer (Fruitvale Station). "Inside Llewyn Davis was named Best Original Screenplay, whereas the Adapted - "The Wolf of Wall Street".
       I am also starting the leaderboard that will show the overall look at the race. You are welcome to look at it choosing "Oscar Race" on the menu bar on the right.
      I'll post quick predictions adjusted for the events that occurred.

Best Picture:


1. 12 Years a Slave (Steve McQueen)
2. Gravity (Alfonso Cuaron)
3. Saving Mr. Banks (John Lee Hancock)
4. Captain Phillips (Paul Greengrass)
5. Inside Llewyn Davis (Joel & Ethan Coen)
6. The Wolf of Wall Street (Martin Scorsese)
7. Her (Spike Jonze)
8. Lee Daniels' The Butler (Lee Daniels)
9. American Hustle (David O. Russel)

Best Director:
1. Steve McQueen (12 Years a Slave)
2. Alfonso Cuaron (Gravity)
3. John Lee Hancock (Saving Mr. Banks)
4. Paul Greengrass (Captain Phillips)
5. Spike Jonze (Her)

Best Actor:
1. Chiwetel Ejiofor (12 Years a Slave)
2. Bruce Dern (Nebraska)
3. Robert Redford (All Is Lost)
4. Tom Hanks (Captain Phillips)
5. Mathew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club)

Best Actress:
1. Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine)
2. Emma Thompson (Saving Mr. Banks)
3. Judi Dench (Philomena)
4. Sandra Bullock (Gravity)
5. Meryl Streep (August: Osage County)

Best Supporting Actor:
1. Michael Fassbender (12 Years a Slave)
2. Tom Hanks (Saving Mr. Banks)
3. Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club)
4. Jonah Hill (The Wolf of Wall Street)
5. Will Forte (Nebraska)

Best Supporting Actress:
1. Lupita Nyong'O (12 Years a Slave)
2. Oprah Winfrey (Lee Daniels' The Butler)
3. Julia Roberts (August: Osage County)
4. Margo Martindale (August: Osage County)
5. June Squibb (Nebraska)

Best Original Screenplay:
1. Inside Llewyn Davis (Joel & Ethan Coen)
2. Blue Jasmine (Woody Allen)
3. Saving Mr. Banks (Sue Smith & Kelly Marcel)
4. Lee Daniels' The Butler (Danny Strong)
5. Gravity (Alfonso & Jonas Cuaron)

The race has started!

       With the Gotham Awards announced along with New York Film Critics the race has taken off. It's the race with the finish line on March 2nd on the night of the Oscars. The night on which we all wear the most elegant pajamas to watch Hollywood's most glamorous night. 
       Anyways, the Pole Position goes to American Hustle (still going to stay with "12 Years a Slave" in the preds for now) which topped the NYFCs with 3 awards including the best feature. Besides that we had "Inside Llewyn Davis" and "Fruitvale Station" shine at Gotham Awards. 
       Also nobody has seen The Wolf of Wall Street, not even the Satellite Awards, which nominated it so that's all about speculation, a hunch, and Martin Scorsese working with Di Caprio along with great actors. So "The Wolf" steps down for now, we'll see when the reviews are published tomorrow, after today's test screenings. 
       Also I decided to shuffle the Best Actress a little to check how that looks, because of anyone is stealing Cate's Oscar it's Judi Dench. 
       Along with the next predictions (end of the week) will come a leaderboard of the race. Points collected by contenders in predictions will be combined into a total to determine who is on the top and so on. 
      Here are the predictions for November-beginning of December:


Oscar Predictions - 12.4.13



Best Picture:
1. 12 Years a Slave (Steve McQueen)
2. American Hustle (David O. Russel)
3. Gravity (Alfonso Cuaron)
4. Saving Mr. Banks (John Lee Hancock)
5. Captain Phillips (Paul Greengrass)
6. Inside Llewyn Davis (Joel & Ethan Coen)
7. The Wolf of Wall Street (Martin Scorsese)
8. Lee Daniels' The Butler (Lee Daniels)
9. Fruitvale Station (Ryan Coogler)



Best Director:
1. Steve McQueen (12 Years a Slave)
2. Alfonso Cuaron (Gravity)
3. Paul Greengrass (Captain Phillips)
4. John Lee Hancock (Saving Mr. Banks)
5. David O. Russel ( American Hustle)

Best Actor:
1. Chiwetel Ejiofor (12 Years a Slave)
2. Mathew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club)
3. Robert Redford (All Is Lost)
4. Tom Hanks (Captain Phillips)
5. Forest Whitaker (Lee Daniels' The Butler)

Best Actress:
1. Judi Dench (Philomena)
2. Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine)
3. Emma Thompson (Saving Mr. Banks)
4. Meryl Streep (August: Osage County)
5. Sandra Bullock (Gravity)

Best Supporting Actor:
1. Michael Fassbender (12 Years a Slave)
2. Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club)
3. Tom Hanks (Saving Mr. Banks)
4. James Gandolfini (Enough Said)
5. Jonah Hill (The Wolf of Wall Street)

Best Supporting Actress:
1. Lupita Nyong'O (12 Years a Slave)
2. Oprah Winfrey (Lee Daniels' The Butler)
3. Julia Roberts (August: Osage County)
4. Jennifer Lawrence (American Hustle)
5. June Squibb (Nebraska)

Best Original Screenplay:
1. American Hustle (Eric Singer & David O. Russel)
2. Saving Mr. Banks (Sue Smith & Kelly Marcel)
3. Blue Jasmine (Woody Allen)
4. Inside Llewyn Davis (Joel & Ethan Coen)
5. Gravity (Alfonso & Jonas Cuaron)

Best Adapted Screenplay:
1. 12 Years a Slave (John Ridley)
2. Captain Phillips (Billy Ray)
3. August: Osage County (Tracy Letts)
4. Before Midnight (Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy & Ethan Hawke)
5. Philomena (Steve Coogan & Jeff Pope)

Best Original Score:
1. 12 Years a Slave (Hans Zimmer)
2. Saving Mr. Banks (Thomas Newman)
3. Gravity (Steven Price)
4. Philomena (Alexandre Desplat)
5. Nebraska (Mark Orton)

Best Cinematography:
1. Gravity (Emmanuel Lubezki)
2. 12 Years a Slave (Sean Bobbit)
3. Inside Llewyn Davis (Bruno Delbonnel)
4. Captain Phillips (Barry Ackroyd)
5. Prisoners (Roger Deakins)

Burt and the crystal ball

If you're looking for the right website, blog or whatever to keep track of the Oscar race - let's hope you have reached your destination.

Here I will be posting news about events, awards, reviews and Oscar predictions. Every category will be updated as often as possible.In case of doubts - leave comments. Maybe at some point I might actually read them.

It's a tricky moment in the race. Not even half of the movies are out so we rely on trailers. It's kind of funny. Films jump up and down, get moved to the next year. Nothing is sure. 

For now I think '12 Years a Slave' seams to be a frontrunner, with Gravity somewhere on the top. I must say I was very disappointed with 'The Fifth Estate'. Two or three months ago - it might have been on the list, but now it's out of the race. It's a shame that 'Monuments Men' were moved to 2014. It could have done pretty well.

Anyway, here are the first predictions. 

Best Picture:

1. 12 Years a Slave (Steve McQueen)

2. Gravity (Alfonso Cuaron)

3. The Wolf of Wall Street (Martin Scorsese)

4. American Hustle (David O. Russel)

5. Captain Phillips (Paul Greengrass)

6. Saving Mr. Banks (John Lee Hancock)

7. Inside Llewyn Davis (Joel & Ethan Coen)

8. Lee Daniels' The Butler (Lee Daniels)

9. The Secret Life of Walter Mitty (Ben Stiller)

Best Director:

1. Steve McQueen (12 Years a Slave)

2. Alfonso Cuaron (Gravity)

3. Paul Greengrass (Captain Phillips)

4. Martin Scorsese (The Wolf of Wall Street)

5. John Lee Hancock (Saving Mr. Banks)

Best Actor:

1. Chiwetel Ejiofor (12 Years a Slave)

2. Robert Redford (All Is Lost)

3. Leonardo DiCaprio (The Wolf of Wall Street)

4. Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club)

5. Tom Hanks (Captain Phillips)

Best Actress:

1. Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine)

2. Judi Dench (Philomena)

3. Meryl Streep (August: Osage County)

4. Emma Thompson (Saving Mr. Banks)

5. Sandra Bullock (Gravity)

Best Supporting Actor:

1. Michael Fassbender (12 Years a Slave)

2. Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club)

3. Tom Hanks (Saving Mr. Banks)

4. Barkhad Abdi (Captain Phillips)

5. James Gandolfini (Enough Said)

Best Supporting Actress:

1. Lupita Nyong'o (12 Years a Slave)

2. Oprah Winfrey (Lee Daniels' The Butler)

3. Julia Roberts (August: Osage County)

4. Margo Martindale (August: Osage County)

5. June Squibb (Nebraska)

Best Original Screenplay:

1. American Hustle (Eric Singer & David O. Russel)

2. Blue Jasmine (Woody Allen)

3. Saving Mr. Banks (Sue Smith & Kelly Marcel)

4. Inside Llewyn Davis (Joel & Ethan Coen)

5. Rush (Peter Morgan)

Best Adapted Screenplay:

1. 12 Years a Slave (John Ridley & Steve McQueen)

2. The Wolf of Wall Street (Terrence Winter)

3. Captain Phillips (Billy Ray)

4. August: Osage County (Tracy Letts)

5. Philomena (Steve Coogan & Jeff Pope)

Best Original Score:
1. 12 Years a Slave (Hans Zimmer)

2. Saving Mr. Banks (Thomas Newman)

3. Gravity (Steven Price)

4. Rush (Hans Zimmer)

5. The Book Thief (John Williams)

Sooo that's it for now. In some time, when things get cleared out, I'll make an Oscar Race leaderboard based on my predictions.