We are now 5 days away from the so called "Oscar Season", and I am back to write regularly on my thoughts, predictions and hopes for the upcoming 6 months. Sometime 6 months ago, 12 Years a Slave (No1 on my Top10 list of 2013) was awarded the Best Picture Oscar. As we are in the middle of the "Oscar year", which begins the day after the annual ceremony, it is time to take a look at what we have.
Couple months ago I posted a list of my then predicted Oscar nominees. Even now I see, some of my mentions are long shots. So I'm gonna take another shot today.
BEST PICTURE:
1. Unbroken (Angelina Jolie)
2. Foxcatcher (Bennet Miller)
3. Fury (David Ayer)
4. Interstellar (Christopher Nolan)
5. Birdman (Alejandro Gonzalez Innaritu)
6. Wild (Jean-Marc Vallee)
7. Mr. Turner (Mike Leigh)
8. The Grand Budapest Hotel (Wes Anderson)
9. Gone Girl (David Fincher)
10. Boyhood (Richard Linklater)
BEST DIRECTOR:
1. Angelina Jolie (Unbroken)
2. Bennet Miller (Foxcatcher)
3. Alejandro Gonzalez Innaritu (Birdman)
4. Christopher Nolan (Interstellar)
5. Wes Anderson (The Grand Budapest Hotel)
BEST ACTOR:
1. Steve Carell (Foxcatcher)
2. Michael Keaton (Birdman)
3. Timothy Spall (Mr. Turner)
4. Jack O'Connell (Unbroken)
5. Channing Tatum (Foxcatcher)
BEST ACTRESS:
1. Rosamund Pike (Gone Girl)
2. Julianne Moore (Maps to the Stars)
3. Amy Adams (Big Eyes)
4. Hilary Swank (The Homesman)
5. Meryl Streep (Into the Woods)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
1. Edward Norton (Birdman)
2. Mark Ruffalo (Foxcatcher)
3. J.K. Simmons (Whiplash)
4. Logan Lerman (Fury)
5. Robert Duvall (Judge)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
1. Patricia Arquette (Boyhood)
2. Imelda Staunton (Pride)
3. Laura Dern (Wild)
4. Emma Stone (Birdman)
5. Oprah Winfrey (Selma)
Why those choices? I don't know. I base it on experience. What certain contenders are thought to be favorites at the time and how they ended up, in the end, in the previous years. The types of movies and performances, the actors and filmmakers. I try to see the actors faces on the nominations screen. The one thing I've learned over the time I've spent on predicting - learn to listen to your intuition. It's more painful when you're wrong after your intuition is telling you something and you ignore it, than being wrong after following your gut.
However complicated that might've sounded, that's about it. It's not a written process, it's not in a book. It's just complicated. Explanation elaboration for the next time.
Burt Mizaki
