Breakin' Down: Picture, Actors and Directors

    With time running out, I have to speed things up and break down four categories today. Two of them are still in play, and surprisingly the one that's the most open for a rivalry is Best Picture. So let's start with that.

    All the nominees obviously have a chance of winning, hence the title "nominee". But let's be honest, it's a two horse race. Three if you really think American Hustle has a chance. So for me it's down to 12 Years a Slave and Gravity, and I must say, I am not sure. On one side I hate predicting Picture/Director splits, and even more, twice in two years, but that's what I'm gonna do. I say 12 Years a Slave! Despite the fact that it has been reported that some Academy members refuse to watch it. I still believe that enough of them have the sense of what's right. I think the fact that Gravity's screenplay is poor, might do harm to the picture overall. And 12 Years a Slave seems like an important one. Will you really be saying in the future, that 2013's BP went to a movie about a woman floating in space trying to come back to Earth? All the precursors went with 12 Years a Slave, Golden Globes, BAFTAs, a PGA tie, BFCA. And what's also interesting is that the majority of BP winners have at least a nomination for the SAG Ensemble award, whereas Gravity didn't get there.

WHO DESERVES TO WIN: 12 Years a Slave
WHO WILL WIN: 12 Years a Slave


    Let's look at the men, who created some of these pictures. The Directors, what do they really do? As Michael Douglas mentioned, preparing to hand the award to Michel Hazanavicius in 2012, a director once came into a bank to get a loan for a movie. The banker asked: "You're a director? Tell me, what do you really do? The screenwriter writes the film, the editor obviously puts it together, the cameraman shoots the damn thing. So i ask again what does a director do?" The director stood there, thought for a moment, and then went to a different bank.
    So what do they do? The truth is that they put it all together, all the other mentioned people's work. They keep it working, they add their imagination, they decide how to shoot something, how the actors should act, it's what makes a film, a film. So what did these mysterious men come up with this year? Cuaron, McQueen, Russel, Payne and Scorsese. They all did a fine job. Cuaron did the impossible, he directed a film, only imagining the outcome, he thought of it in every detail. McQueen gave us a piece of art, a film that works thanks to his masterful sense of direction. Russel directed his American Hustle to a light and amusing picture, which has its interesting moments and the director's choices. Payne made a funny and nicely done film, where everything seems so amusingly subtle. Scorsese went all the way with a film that's an icebreaker. The speed of it, and the dynamics of his direction are truly unbelievable. Cuaron has won practically everything, even the Brit-favoring BAFTA. So where can it go? We can't really look at last year, where the frontrunner wasn't even nominated. But let's do nevertheless. It was Ang Lee, who hasn't won anything that year, so maybe there can be an upset from McQueen?

WHO DESERVES IT: Steve McQueen
WHO WILL WIN: Alfonso Cuaron


Let's take a look at both of the leading acting categories. The guys are pretty much down to three with one in the head of the rest. It's McConaughey and his McConaissance in the front, but looking back to see how far behind him are DiCaprio and Ejiofor. Not that far as it would seem. So who wins? McConaughey grabbed everything on the way so far, but he did NOT compete directly with DiCaprio yet. The latter missed out on the SAGs, and in most of the award shows, he is in a comedy category while McConaughey is in Drama. I still am sure that it's McConaughey's Oscar to lose, but they guys are close behind. Some people say that "True Detective" helps Matthew. But I think that it doesn't. And that is due to the fact that he is way better in the TV series. Which might make his Woodruff role look weaker. But it might no. Who knows? No one ever will.

WHO DESERVES IT: All three men - Leonardo DiCaprio, Matthew McConaughey, Chiwetel Ejiofor
WHO WILL WIN: Matthew McConaughey
WHO COULD WIN: I really wouldn't be that surprised if either of the others would win. But my moneys is on Matt, and Chiwetel in second place.


The ladies. It obviously has to go to Blanchett. She has won everything, and so she deserves it. She was phenomenal. They all were. Judi Dench was very good, actually the only one of the 5 that really convinced me to being her character. Sandra Bullock was also good, she did something very new. Meryl Streep is excellent, though many disagree, she was one of the best of the year. and Adams who also did a great job on American Hustle, and with 5 nominations is on the verge of joining the Glenn Close, 6nom/0win club. All of them were different. All of them were fantastic. All of them deserve to put up a fight for that win. Cate has the obvious lead having won so much, and being voted for before thought about. It's just something automatic this year, it obviously has to go to Cate, so they vote for her. If there wasn't so much buzz around her this year, would she still be the frontrunner? Or would it be the 1% possible spoiler, Amy Adams. Maybe Sandra Bullock, that is gaining attention. Maybe Streep? Although she has won two years ago, and I don't see her accepting her fourth Oscar so soon. Or maybe Dame Judi Dench? She might be given the Oscar as a sort of 'tipping the hat' for her original performance and wonderful career.

WHO DESERVES IT: Cate Blanchett & Judi Dench (But really all of them were great)
WHO WILL WIN: Cate Blanchett




My final predictions, I will put up tomorrow. I still need to decide on a few things. I gotta say the most difficult ones for me are Best Original Screenplay, Costume Design and Production Design. The leading actor also haunts me. So see you tomorrow, and good luck with your predictions.


Burt Mizaki

Breakin' down: Supporting Acting

     

BREAKING DOWN THE SUPPORTING ACTORS

   With 4 days to go, I have yet to post my final predictions. I will do so on Saturday. Right now I'm going to look closer into the supporting acting categories.
       First let's look at the ladies. Who do we have?

      Sally Hawkins in Blue Jasmine. She plays a cute and naive divorced mother. Through her terrible annoyance she is so interestingly charming and convincing. What is in her favor? Well she's definitely not the obvious choice, might be a vote of a member who is not really decided. I don't know what to say else in her favor, because she doesn't really stand a chance.
     Jennifer Lawrence in American Hustle. 14 times in history has a film been nominated in a all four acting categories before. And in all but two cases the film had at least one winner. That bodes well for the seemingly only hope for American Hustle. What is against her? Do we really think that she will pull off a consecutive win at 24? I mean, if they choose her, fine, but will they? Will a voter choose Lawrence to be his 24 year old two time Oscar winner? Having won more Oscars than Judi Dench, Bruce Dern, Glenn Close or Tommy Lee Jones? I wouldn't put my money on that, but if people think so, then maybe there's something to it.
     Lupita Nyong'o in 12 Years a Slave. First of all she is great in the movie. Second of all she is a charming person and is loved by everyone. And most of all, 12 Years a Slave might face a problem of winning BP, but not much besides that. So she might be a place to award the film. Very often in the last several years were black actresses awarded with this particular Oscar. She also won a S.A.G. which is often a good predictor of the eventual Oscar winner.
    Julia Roberts in August: Osage County. Well she has a problem. She certainly lost a lot of steam right before the voting began, and might not be a memorable contender at this point. In her defense, she plays an unexpectedly dark character and scares the hell out of the audience with her anger. I actually don't see this happening anymore, but we'll see.
    June Squibb in Nebraska. She is very funny in the movie, surprisingly vulgar and it's a performance that might just bring her the crowning of her career. We all love to see mature actors get the award, they are always so charming upstage. The video that June Squibb recorded "Meet the Nominees" for Jimmy Kimmel was hilarious, and itself deserves recognition. She hash;t won anything this season, but that might be a reason for the Academy to pull out a surprise rabbit out of the hat.

Also a very reliable website, PredictWise, gives Nyong'o 54% chance of winning, while Lawrence got 40%.

So here they are, all 5 of them. Who do I think will win? Who do I want to win? And who deserves to win? All different questions, and all ought to be answered.

WHO DESERVES IT: Lupita Nyong'o or June Squibb
WHO I AM ROOTING FOR: Lupita Nyong'o
WHO WILL WIN: Lupita Nyong'o


Now let's look at the guys.

    Barkhad Abdi in Captain Phillips. He seems to be the choice that would please everyone, as it did at the BAFTAs. Presenter Emma Thompson was pleasantly surprised to be allowed to read his name. He also is a stunning beginner, and gives a memorable performance. Why not him? They sometimes like to award actors who are in the business for some time already. But why not, it would be interesting.
    Bradley Cooper in American Hustle. For startes I'm not convinced he's the right person to be here. And secondly his performance is, in my, as well as a lot of other people's, opinion, the least deserving of the lot. He was nominated last year, and didn't stand a chance there against veteran Daniel Day-Lewis. So this year does he stand a chance? I say no, I just don't see it. The backlash would be enormous.
    Michael Fassbender in 12 Years a Slave. He is excellent in his role of a monster, a slave owner, a disgusting man. The fact that the film stands such a good chance of winning the big prize can prompt the voters to tick off his name. Against him? No campaigning, and his character is extremely hate able. He seems to be a possibility as does Abdi.
    Jonah Hill in The Wolf of Wall Street. To start with, for some (not me) he was a surprise nominee. He plays a funny character, a likable one. The problem is he hasn't been recognized for the role this year, apart from the nominations. Does he have a chance? Don't think so, the role isn't Oscar-ish enough.
    Jared Leto in Dallas Buyers Club. He is mesmerizing in his role as an AIDS diagnosed transgender named Rayon. He has won almost everything this season, and he seems like a good choice, the one that if he wins, no one will complain. What's against him? I don't really know, maybe it's the fact that he might seem like the most obvious choice, they might want to go with a surprise.

WHO DESERVES IT: Jared Leto
WHO I AM ROOTING FOR: Jared Leto & Michael Fassbender
WHO WILL WIN: Jared Leto


Coming back tomorrow ro break down the leading acting categories!!


Burt Mizaki

7 days to go!

    With only seven days left to the Oscars, I will post a breakdown for the major categories each day (hopefully), starting tomorrow. Now I will face a difficult challenge and predict all the feature film categories. There seem to be no room for surprises which just makes me think: Where are we wrong? There are ALWAYS some surprises! Some! Please!
    I will do my charts, and add a possible spoiler, that my hunch is telling me to mention, so in 8 days time I can say: I told you so, dammit!


   So here we go! Remember to look up the OSCAR RACE leaderboard page!

  ALL THE FEATURE FILM CATEGORIES!

BEST PICTURE
1. 12 Years a Slave (Steve McQueen)
2. Gravity (Alfonso Cuaron)
3. American Hustle (David O. Russel)
4. Philomena (Stephen Frears)
5. Dallas Buyers Club (Jean-Marc Vallee)
6. Captain Phillips (Paul Greengrass)
7. Her (Spike Jonze)
8. Nebraska (Alexander Payne)
9. The Wolf of Wall Street (Martin Scorsese)

Possible spoiler (a total surprise - thanks to the preferential vote): Dallas Buyers Club


BEST DIRECTOR
1. Alfonso Cuaron (Gravity)
2. Steve McQueen (12 Years a Slave)
3. David O. Russel (American Hustle)
4. Martin Scorsese (The Wolf of Wall Street)
5. Alexander Payne (Nebraska)

Possible spoiler (voters might attach him as a winner to their BP vote for the film) - Steve McQueen


BEST ACTOR
1. Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club)
2. Chiwetel Ejiofor (12 Years a Slave)
3. Leonardo DiCaprio (The Wolf of Wall Street)
4. Bruce Dern (Nebraska)
5. Christian Bale (American Hustle)

Possible spoiler (just because his performance is excellent and the best of his so far): Leonardo DiCaprio


BEST ACTRESS
1. Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine)
2. Amy Adams (American Hustle)
3. Judi Dench (Philomena)
4. Sandra Bullock (Gravity)
5. Meryl Streep (August: Osage County)

Possible spoiler (because she is lovely and most definitely deserves some recognition for her work, and who knows, maybe it's the last time she is nominated ;) ): Judi Dench


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1. Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club)
2. Michael Fassbender (12 Years a Slave)
3. Barkhad Abdi (Captain Phillips)
4. Jonah Hill (The Wolf of Wall Street)
5. Bradley Cooper (American Hustle)

Possible spoiler (because everyone would love to see him win): Barkhad Abdi



BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1. Lupita Nyong'o (12 Years a Slave)
2. Jennifer Lawrence (American Hustle)
3. June Squibb (Nebraska)
4. Sally Hawkins (Blue Jasmine)
5. Julia Roberts (August: Osage County)

Possible spoiler (for the same reason that Dench, she is also very good in the movie, and seems like a perfect way out of the Nyong'o - Lawrence clash down): June Squibb



BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1. Her (Spike Jonze)
2. American Hustle (Eric Warren Singer & David O. Russel)
3. Nebraska (Bob Nelson)
4. Dallas Buyers Club (Craig Borten & Melisa Wallack)
5. Blue Jasmine (Woody Allen)

Possible spoiler: American Hustle (seems like the only other way it could go)



BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1. 12 Years a Slave (John Ridley)
2. Philomena (Steve Coogan & Jeff Pope)
3. Captain Phillips (Billy Ray)
4. Before Midnight (Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke & Richard Linklater)
5. The Wolf of Wall Street (Terrence Winter)

Possible spoiler: Captain Phillips (might be the one to beat 12 Years a Slave & Philomena, won the WGA)



BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
1. Gravity (Emmanuel Lubezki)
2. Inside Llewyn Davis (Bruno Delbonnel)
3. Nebraska (Phedon Papamichael)
4. The Grandmaster (Phillipe Le Sourd)
5. Prisoners (Roger A. Deakins)

Possible spoiler: Nebraska (The black&white makes it look more artistic than it actually is, has interesting and static photography)



BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
1. Gravity (Steven Price)
2. Philomena (Alexandre Desplat)
3. Her (Arcade Fire)
4. Saving Mr. Banks (Thomas Newman)
5. The Book Thief (John Williams)

Possible spoiler: Philomena (A great soundtrack, Desplat is very overdue. Gravity might seem too populist)



BEST ORIGINAL SONG
1. "Let it Go" (Frozen)
2. "Ordinary Love" (Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom)
3. "Moon Song" (Her)
4. "Happy" (Despicable Me 2)

Possible spoiler: "Ordinary Love" (Seems the best song, and it won a Globe, definitely a deserving choice, also U2.)



BEST FILM EDITING
1. Captain Phillips (Christopher Rouse)
2. Gravity (Alfonso Cuaron & Mark Sanger)
3. 12 Years a Slave (Joe Walker)
4. American Hustle (Jay Cassidy, Crispin Struthers & Alan Baumgarten)
5. Dallas Buyers Club (Martin Pensa & John Mac Murphy) --> Murphy is Vallee's pseudonym

Possible spoiler: 12 Years a Slave (very brave editing, risky at times, might interest the voters with that)



BEST COSTUME DESIGN
1. The Great Gatsby (Catherine Martin)
2. American Hustle (Michael Wilkinson)
3. 12 Years a Slave (Patricia Norris)
4. The Invisible Woman (Michael O'Connor)
5. The Grandmaster (William Chang Suk Ping)

Possible spoiler: 12 Years a Slave (as the only obvious BP choice among these, it can attract voters' eyes as the one that they think should win. They don't necessarily have to know what they're doing. Tech branches voters mainly - a period film, a good won --> let's vote for that)



BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
1. The Great Gatsby   (Catherine Martin, Beverley Dunn)
2. Gravity   (Andy Nicholson, Rosie Goodwin & Joanne Woollard)
3. 12 Years a Slave   (Adam Stockhausen, Alice Baker)
4. Her   (K.K. Barett, Gene Serdena)
5. American Hustle   (Jude Becker, Heather Loeffler)

Possible spoiler: 12 Years a Slave (the same reason as above + it's simply a great production design)



BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
1. Frozen 
2. The Wind Rises 
3. Despicable Me 2
4. Ernest & Celestine
5. Croods

Possible spoiler: Ernest & Celestine (It's wonderful, a low budget small wonder that attracts with the fact that it is so amateur in comparison with the rest)



BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
1. Gravity   (Tim Webber, Chris Lawrence, David Shirk & Neil Corbould)
2. Star Trek Into Darkness   (Roger Guyett, Patrick Tubach, Ben Grossmann & Burt Dalton)
3. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug  (Joe Letteri, Eric Saindon, David Clayton & Eric Reynolds)
4. The Lone Ranger   (Tim Alexander, Gary Brozenich, Edson Williams & John Frazier)
5. Iron Man 3   (Christopher Townsend, Guy Williams, Erik Nash & Dan Sudick)

Possible spoiler: Gravity is a LOCK.

BEST SOUND EDITING

1. Gravity (Glenn Freemantle)

2. Captain Phillips (Oliver Tarney)

3. The Hobbit The Desolation of Smaug (Brent Burge & Chris Ward)

4. Lone Survivor (Wylie Stateman)

5. All Is Lost (Steve Boeddeker & Richard Hymns)

Possible spoiler: Captain Phillips (Like in film editing Captain Phillips might me the one to steal it from Gravity)

BEST SOUND MIXING

1. Gravity    (Skip Lievsay, Niv Adiri, Christopher Benstead & Chris Munro)

2. Captain Phillips    (Chris Burdon, Mark Taylor, Mike Prestwood Smith & Chris Munro)

3. Inside Llewyn Davis    (Skip Lievsay, Greg Orloff & Peter F. Kurland)

4. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug    (Christopher Boyes, Michael Hedges, Michael Semanick & Tony Johnson)

5. Lone Survivor    (Andy Koyama, Beau Borders & David Brownlow)

Possible spoiler (again): Captain Phillips

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

1. Dallas Buyers Club (Adruitha Lee & Robin Mathews)

2. Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa (Stephen Prouty)

3. The Lone Ranger (Joel Harlow & Gloria Pasqua-Casny)

Possible spoiler: Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa (as the Academy's prank)

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

1. The Great Beauty (Italy)

2. The Hunt (Denmark)

3. The Broken Circle Breakdown (Belgium)

4. Omar (Palestine)

5. The Missing Picture (Cambodia)

Possible spoiler: The Hunt

AND THAT'S FINALLY IT!   The 1st Oscar breakdown tomorrow! --> Best Supporting Actor.

Burt Mizaki

All the way!

   The voting has started, which means that the campaigning is going all the way now. Every trick they have, the distributors use to gain some momentum for their pictures. From what I heard and read Matthew McConaughey with Jared Leto are campaigning pretty heavily. Also DiCaprio with Scorsese are doing what they can.
   Now let's move to the BAFTAs. The were handed out yesterday, with a couple surprises. The mentioned McConaughey and Leto weren't nominated, I believe due to late release date in the UK. So that opened the field up. Also 12 Years a Slave was a big loser towards the end of the evening having lost the screenplay and supporting actress race. Yet they went out with two big awards, Best Film and Best Actor. That certainly helps the film in the battle against Gravity, as the latter only managed to pull off a Best British film award, as far as the Picture awards go. Well deserved I must say, but Lawrence for supporting actress? Only she didn't win last year, losing out to Emmanuelle RIva, so it's not a consecutive win, meaning that it doesn't prompt her chances much. The supporting actor however, hasn't seen Michael Fassbender winning the award. The presenter, Emma Thompson, was very pleasantly surprised to announce that the winner was Barkhad Abdi. 
     Remember the Oscar voting is underway, so the momentum really matters right NOW. So the BAFTAs are sort of a late christmas present, they very often are good predictors of the Osars. The Best Oscar race, they predicted correctly 7 out of the last 9 times. Which means it's in Ejiofor's favor. However McConaughey won the SAG, which I believe have an amazing record 9 out of the last 9 times. 
    Based on that let's move to the predictions.


BEST PICTURE
1. 12 Years a Slave (Steve McQueen)
2. Gravity (Alfonso Cuaron)
3. American Hustle (David O. Russel)
4. Philomena (Stephen Frears)
5. Dallas Buyers Club (Jean-Marc Vallee)
6. Her (Spike Jonze)
7. The Wolf of Wall Street (Martin Scorsese)
8. Captain Phillips (Paul Greengrass)
9. Nebraska (Alexander Payne)


BEST DIRECTOR
1. Alfonso Cuaron (Gravity)
2. Steve McQueen (12 Years a Slave)
3. David O. Russel (American Hustle)
4. Martin Scorsese (The Wolf of Wall Street)
5. Alexander Payne (Nebraska)


BEST ACTOR
1. Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club)
2. Chiwetel Ejiofor (12 Years a Slave)
3. Leonardo DiCaprio (The Wolf of Wall Street)
4. Bruce Dern (Nebraska)
5. Christian Bale (American Hustle)


BEST ACTRESS
1. Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine)
2. Amy Adams (American Hustle)
3. Judi Dench (Philomena)
4. Sandra Bullock (Gravity)
5. Meryl Streep (August: Osage County)


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1. Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club)
2. Barkhad Abdi (Captain Phillips)
3. Michael Fassbender (12 Years a Slave)
4. Bradley Cooper (American Hustle)
5. Jonah Hill (The Wolf of Wall Street)


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1. Lupita Nyong'o (12 Years a Slave)
2. Jennifer Lawrence (American Hustle)
3. June Squibb (Nebraska)
4. Sally Hawkins (Blue Jasmine)
5. Julia Roberts (August: Osage County)


BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1. Her (Spike Jonze)
2. American Hustle (Eric Warren Singer & David O. Russel)
3. Nebraska (Bob Nelson)
4. Dallas Buyers Club (Craig Borten & Melisa Wallack)
5. Blue Jasmine (Woody Allen)


BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1. 12 Years a Slave (John Ridley)
2. Philomena (Jeff Pope & Steve Coogan)
3. Captain Phillips (Billy Ray)
4. Before Midnight (Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy & Ethan Hawke)
5. The Wolf of Wall Street (Terrence Winter)


Thanks that's it for now, look up the OSCAR RACE leaderboard page!

Burt Mizaki

The 1st Burt Awards

   THE 1st BURT AWARDS   

                                                                                                    

 

    Here they are, the 1st Burt Awards, given out in 15 categories. Some of them are Oscar categories, some are not. I had a very hard time deciding on the winner in a few categories, the same was with even nominating the right ones - and I still have my doubts. I didn't mention them in the nominations but Amy Adams proved to be quite amazing when I gave the film a second try, the same for Christian Bale. Cooper still kind of feels not the right thing to praise in the movie. Also "All Is Lost", the movie, the direction and Redford are all amazing. As for music I feel it was an ignorant thing to do to oversee Alexandre Desplat's score for Philomena.
    Anyways, here are the winners in all categories, the Burt Awards:



BEST PICTURE

12 Years a Slave

Why: It is touching, the acting is phenomenal. Brutal at times, tends to shock, but at the same time beautifully depicts the suffering that the characters experienced. It's masterfully executed, I must say it is by far one of the best movies in the past years. "Her" was a strong contender, as it is nothing we have ever seen before, but it didn't strike me with the spectacularly visible art of filmmaking seen in "12 Years a Slave".



BEST DIRECTOR

Steve McQueen (12 Years a Slave)

Why: All the directors did something amazing this year. Even those, that I didn't mention like David O. Russel, J.C. Chandor, Spike Jonze. All of them, something different. Cuaron created something out of absolute nothing, Scorsese depicted a somewhat saddening story in a satyrical almost grotesque way. And McQueen, as he taught us to expect from him, masterfully brought suffering to the screen and beyond it into the audience. I decided to award him, as his job as a director, gave the most direct value to his film, the story is moving, yes, but the art, which the Brit is known for, lifted the film to such a level that we can call it the best of the year.



BEST ACTOR

Chiwetel Ejiofor (12 Years a Slave)

Why: This was a really difficult one. I almost gave it to DiCaprio, as his funny and tragic character is surely the best role of his career. His talent shines and the role is just pleasure to watch. Ejiofor however, and his role, is not pleasant to watch at all. His character has lost everything, and is seemingly the most negatively thinking one of the bunch. Yet in Ejiofor's act we can spot traces of that hope that he claims to have, that it will never go away. His performance was extremely touching, and as I mentioned before, it reminds me of the excellent Oscar winning performance of Adrien Brody in "The Pianist".



BEST ACTRESS

Judi Dench (Philomena)

Why: This was very tricky because, of course Cate Blanchett was superb in her role, and has won practically everything for it. Streep was also fantastic, and so were Thompson and Bullock. But I decided to rewards Dench, because her performance is so unusual, in such a heartwarming way. It is subtle, and those are rarely recognized. I smiled every time she had a line in her movie, because she makes your life a happier one with what she does on screen. She, in my opinion, is the actress this year who managed the best to completely disappear into her character.



BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club)

Why: He is simply fantastic. It's something interesting, a difficult character, an intriguing one. He carries it out with great excellence, and I just have to tip my hat to that.



BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Julia Roberts (August: Osage County)

Why: There were a lot of great performances, by newcomers Margot Robbie, Lupita Nyong'o, veteran June Squibb and the marvelous Oprah Winfrey. They all deserve praise. At some point I almost decided to award Robbie, because she so magically becomes the Duchess of Bay Ridge, with her adopted Brooklyn accent. Then Nyong'o with her, suffering filled, Patsey. In the end I decided to go with Roberts, because it is something totally unexpected, she plays a character that seems so powerful, but in the end she makes you realize that the anger that toughens her character, actually makes her weak and vulnerable. She is amazing showing the fear of becoming her mother (Meryl Streep; and I guess that Roberts is the only one who fears becoming Meryl Streep). And such a negative, bad character, that we would never expect from Roberts.



BEST ACTING ENSEMBLE

August: Osage County

Why: The whole movie is run by the cast. They are the ones who make it all work. It is essentially theatre on screen. Each of them is different and each of them falls into the perfect place with their nuanced and intriguing performances.



BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Her (Spike Jonze)

Why: Like I said, it's nothing like we've ever seen before. It's a completely new idea, and such a bright story to go with it. It's something magnificently original.



BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

12 Years a Slave (John Rodley)

Why: It's an excellently written film, that works with the direction, and makes the whole movie a great one.



BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

All Is Lost (Alex Ebert)

Why: It may be subtle and sometimes you can't hear it but the fact is that it is perfect in every way. And it is something completely new, composed in a way, that I at least, listened to it with great fascination.



BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Gravity (Emmanuel Lubezki)

Why: It was an extremely difficult decision, because there was also the excellent Inside Llewyn Davis photography by Bruno Delbonnel, but I decided to go with the, maybe, little populist choice, but I just couldn't resist. It is spectacular and beautiful. Maybe big help from the visual artists, but I just couldn't ignore it.



BEST POSTER OF THE YEAR

Gravity

Why: It perfectly depicts the loneliness that is the main theme of the film. 

BEST SURPRISE

Brie Larson (Short Term 12)

Why: She became the crowd's favorite after her amazing breakthrough performance in Short Term 12. She felt amazingly perfect and we all, I think, admire her already, and believe that a great and awards winning actress will come out of that.



BEST QUOTE

The Wolf of Wall Street (Leonardo CiCaprio) - " Those little bastards were so strong that I discovered a whole new phase. The cerebral palsy phase".

Why: It just stays in your mind, it's something that will be quoted. It's funny and kind of tragic, like the whole movie. The Benihana quote was also great, but it was too much of an inside joke.



BEST SCENE

The Wolf of Wall Street (Leonardo DiCaprio) - The cerebral palsy phase scene.

Why: It is so amazing, with almost no words coming from the actor in screen, it's such a hilarious scene. With all the details working perfectly, the whole journey to the car, performed by DiCaprio, with many excellent surprises from Scorsese, it's just fantastic.



Thank you, these were the winners, see you soon with some predictions after tonight's BAFTAs! See you,

Burt Mizaki

Best Picture Preferential Vote - Favorite or Consensus?!

        Preferential voting & Momentum war 

   The 'Final Oscar Voting' starts tomorrow! Which means that the momentum is the most important thing in the world for the contenders, now. Whoever has the flow over the next two weeks is likely to be in a very good position. But being the favorite is not enough. Why? Here comes the preferential voting. What is it about? Here is the perfect explanation that I could find: http://www.thewrap.com/steve-pond-explains-oscars-voting-process-video/ .
     The preferential voting basically means that it's not a regular popular vote. You have 9 nominees so you put a number (from 1 - favorite film; to 9 - least favorite) next to each of them on the OSCAR BALLOT:

                                                                                                                                                    

                                                                                                                                                   

      Then Price Waterhouse piles all the mailed in ballots on top of each other (even if a member votes online, they print them out). Imagine 9 piles of paper sheets, them being the Best Picture ballots. 9 piles of different sizes correspond, obviously, to the number of nominees. 

     A picture needs 50% + 1 vote, to win the Oscar. This said I mean it needs that number of ballots that have the film marked as the first choice. So e.g. "Philomena" gets 60% No1 votes, it wins right away. But in real life it is virtually impossible to have it resolved right away.

      So let's just say picture "A" has 25%, and picture "B" has 20%, and so on, to picture "F", which has 5%. No film reached the minimum benchmark, so the one with the least number 1 votes, is out of the game. What happens to paper pile No9? They check which film is No2 on the lists of each, "pile No9", ballot, and that's the pile where the ballots go to next. 

     E.G.   So let's say on the top of my list there's "Her", but that film is out in the first round, and in second place I have "Captain Phillips" - that's my new No1 film. If that one's out it goes to No3 film, or if that one is already out, the No4 film and so on.

     There are 8 piles now. If none of them have 50% + 1 vote, than the process goes on again. If on a ballot a film that is chosen as No2 is out as well as the first one, they look at No3, and so on down the list on the ballot. At some point one of the films will have more than 50%, probably meaning that 2 pictures are left in the end. Also, there are NO ties in this category.

    So the film that has the 50% +1 votes in the very end is your Best Picture winner. BUT - it doesn't necessarily mean that it had the most No1 votes in the beginning. I doubt "Argo", last year had too many No1 votes. 

    Another example: Gravity had 30 % in the beginning, "American Hustle" had 20%. But the latter was more often on No2, 3 and 4 spots, while Gravity, if wasn't No1, dangled on the bottoms of ballots. Which means "Hustle" wins. Again - it's only an example.

    So a question comes forth: "Is does a film, that's a favorite for a large group of people, beat a film that's somewhere around a 3 spot for 90% of the Academy? Our Best Picture might be a favorite of only 10% of the people, while the popular choice, which is backed by 30%, falls back during the preferential voting. For some it makes it fair, for others - not.

   Why fair? Some say that it gives a chance to the films that don't shine, but it beats out a possibility of a big controversy (yeah, look at Argo, that wasn't very well received).

   Why not fair? It is said that it boosts the chances of the relatively mediocre nominees. It is a simplest consensus, leaving us in a "so-so" mood, instead of not knowing if a year is going to be cheerful or a disappointment, come the Big Night.

  So what do I think? Let's see the system was here for two years, this is the third time. "The Artist" and "Argo". Well I don't know, neither were my favorites but I must say I wasn't so into any of the "Artist year" films, while I kind of could have thought of a couple other scenarios last year which would satisfy me more.

  It sounds really complicated, and it makes it feel even more unpredictable, but the two years we've had it, the most predicted contenders won. So we'll see who catches the last-minute momentum.

                                                                                                                                               

    Well talking about all of this just asks to do a quick Best Picture prediction. The battle of the last weeks goes by the title "12 Years a Slave vs. Gravity". Questions surface: will there be a Picture/Director split? There haven't been two consecutive ones since the 50s, I think. If there isn't one who takes the "BigBox" (Picture & Director). My first pick for that would be Gravity, because, it has the director slot in a "likely winner" status, which means that McQueen isn't even in a battle there, really, and in the Picture category it is pretty even. That said I will shift things up ahead of Sunday's BURT AWARDS and the same evening's BAFTAs, and put Gravity at the top, which I never did before. Just to see how that looks.

Here it is, the preferentially voted, BEST PICTURE:

1. Gravity (Alfonso Cuaron)

2. 12 Years a Slave (Steve McQueen)

3. American Hustle (David O. Russel)

4. Philomena (Stephen Frears)

5. Her (Spike Jonze)

6. Dallas Buyers Club (Jean-Marc Vallee)

7. Captain Phillips (Paul Greengrass)

8. Nebraska (Alexander Payne)

9. The Wolf of Wall Street (Martin Scorsese)

Don't forget to look at the OSCAR RACE leader boar page, which you can enter through the sidebar menu.

Burt Mizaki

The Tempest

  Woody Allen, Phillip Seymour Hoffman and the Tempest. 

    You could say that things got crazy, that Woody Allen's personal life could have an impact on the race and that a thousand different factors would matter. But really, who gives a shit? I mean, sure, some melodrama and controversy over Cate Blanchett may do harm, but still it's publicity. And after all, didn't we already know that he had some Roman Polanski business in the past? Weren't there any rumors that he molested the girl? I don't know it just doesn't seem that unexpected. Yeah, I'm sorry maybe the cases of the respective directors are incomparable. Yet again people, nobody gives a damn, with all due respect. 
      Back to the beginning then, you might say it's crazy in the race, but.... no. There is nothing going on, nothing changing, no unexpected twists. Maybe the BAFTAs will spice it up, but that's a whole weak away.
      Approaching the film subject from a different side we are all devastated to learn about the passing of a great actor. He amused us in "Charlie Wilson's War", he intrigued in "Doubt", and amazed in "Capote". I don't want this to sound like an obituary, but he truly was one of the great ones. Rest In Peace, Phillip Seymour Hoffman.
    Now let me explain the title of the post. The Tempest, no, nothing to do with Shakespeare. It's something that might happen shortly. Like I said there is NOTHING happening now. Maybe that is the precise reason to believe that there might be something in the very near future. The silence before the thunder, or however that saying goes. Maybe the BAFTAs will shake it up? Maybe some scandals will develop? Nothing as effective in campaigning than backstabbing your fellow nominees, and when that works and you thank the Academy, you mention your "sincere" gratitude to the opponents for the inspiration. Well, I might have exaggerated but something has gotta happen right? Or all the Oscar-bloggers will soon lose their jobs.
    Anyways, I am adding some additional nominations for the Burt Awards, which winners will be announced this Sunday. The new categories are: Best Scene; Best Quote. That's it. 
   As for the Oscar nominees I must admit I took a second shot at "American Hustle", and I quite enjoyed it this time. It didn't convince me to call it the best movie of the year, but it was OK.
   
Just for the routine's sake I'll type some predictions in, so here they are ladies and gents:


BEST PICTURE
1. 12 Years a Slave (Steve McQueen)
2. Gravity (Alfonso Cuaron)
3. American Hustle (David O. Russel)
4. Her (Spike Jonze)
5. The Wolf of Wall Street (Martin Scorsese)
6. Philomena (Stephen Frears)
7. Dallas Buyers Club (Jean-Marc Vallee)
8. Captain Phillips (Paul Greengrass)
9. Nebraska (Alexander Payne)

BEST DIRECTOR
1. Alsonso Cuaron (Gravity)
2. Steve McQueen (12 Years a Slave)
3. David O. Russel (American Hustle)
4. Martin Scorsese (The Wolf of Wall Street)
5. Alexander Payne (Nebraska)

BEST ACTOR
1. Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club)
2. Chiwetel Ejiofor (12 Years a Slave)
3. Leonardo DiCaprio (The Wolf of Wall Street)
4. Bruce Dern (Nebraska)
5. Christian Bale (American Hustle)

BEST ACTRESS
1. Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine)
2. Amy Adams (American Hustle)
3. Judi Dench (Philomena)
4. Sandra Bullock (Gravity)
5. Meryl Streep (August: Osage County)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1. Lupita Nyong'o (12 Years a Slave)
2. June Squibb (Nebraska)
3. Jennifer Lawrence (American Hustle)
4. Julia Roberts (August: Osage County)
5. Sally Hawkins (Blue Jasmine)



THE BURT AWARDS REMAINING CATEGORIES


BEST SCENE 
- "August: Osage County" - Julia Roberts makes Meryl Streep eat fish.
LINK: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eHPsIbfNcLQ

- "Captain Phillips" - Ending scene with nurse helping Tom Hanks.
LINK: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yl5IP6E-9CI

- "American Hustle" - Jennifer Lawrence burns "science oven".
LINK: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eIGPvPRzEaQ

- "The Wolf of Wall Street" - DiCaprio cerebral palsy phase after Lemmon Quaaludes.
LINK: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vr3151RdQWE

- "The Wolf of Wall Street" - Matthew McConaughey hums during lunch with DiCaprio.
LINK: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2YCHmOAbJBs


BEST QUOTE
-  "Eat the fish, bitch!" - Julia Roberts in "August: Osage County"
- "I'm never going to Benihana's again. I don't care who's birthday it is." - Jonah Hill in "The Wolf of Wall Street"
- "And here's Woody's little sister, Rose. She was only nineteen when she died in a car accident. What a whore." - June Squibb in "Nebraska"
- "If you ride like lighting, you're gonna crash like thunder." - Ben Mendelsohn in "The Place Beyond the Pines"
- "These bastards where so strong, I discovered a whole new phase. The cerebral palsy phase" - Leonardo DiCaprio in "The Wolf of Wall Street"

4 weeks, 121 nominees, 24 Oscars to give.

      With 4 weeks to go things are taking shape, contenders falling into place and we need to start a countdown. This month is always special because the final Oscar voting takes place and it is extremely important to be on the top, have the momentum, in the period of time when the voting takes place. So who has the momentum now? I mentioned that two posts ago, couple days ago. 
      Gravity is speeding up with its buzz while 12 Years still sits on the frontrunners' chair. And it seems as for the first time in a long time, having been in a movie that premiered in July, helps keep the frontrunner position in their category. I'm talking about Cate Blanchett. She used, what most would call a weakness, the fact that the film came out 6 months ago, as it would normally be forgotten, to steadily build up a strong "likely winner" position.
     4 weeks to go, which means a loooooot of things could happen. 4 weeks ago Chiwetel Ejiofor was the frontrunner in the Actor race, which position he lost to Matthew McConaughey. Sandra Bullock lost most of her momentum, as nobody really considers her to be a major threat for Cate.

      REMEMBER! Check the OSCAR RACE page! Choose the page on the sidebar ---->>>

      Anyways, here are the Predictions:


BEST PICTURE
1. 12 Years a Slave (Steve McQueen)

2. Gravity (Alfonso Cuaron)
3. American Hustle (David O. Russel)
4. Nebraska (Alexander Payne)
5. The Wolf of Wall Street (Martin Scorsese)
6. Philomena (Stephen Frears)
7. Dallas Buyers Club (Jean-Marc Vallee)
8. Her (Spike Jonze
9. Captain Phillips (Paul Greengrass)

BEST DIRECTOR
1. Alfonso Cuaron (Gravity)
2. Steve McQueen (12 Years a Slave)
3. David O. Russel (American Hustle)
4. Alexander Payne (Nebraska)
5. Martin Scorsese (The Wolf of Wall Street)

BEST ACTOR
1. Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club)
2. Chiwetel Ejiofor (12 Years a Slave)
3. Leonardo DiCaprio (The Wolf of Wall Street)
4. Bruce Dern (Nebraska)
5. Christian Bale (American Hustle)

BEST ACTRESS
1. Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine)
2. Judi Dench (Philomena)
3. Amy Adams (American Hustle)
4. Meryl Streep (August: Osage County)
5. Sandra Bullock (Gravity)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1. Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club)
2. Michael Fassbender (12 Years a Slave)
3. Jonah Hill (The Wolf of Wall Street)
4. Barkhad Abdi (Captain Phillips)
5. Bradley Cooper (American Hustle)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1. Lupita Nyong'o (12 Years a Slave)
2. Julia Roberts (August: Osage County)
3. Jennifer Lawrence (American Hustle)
4. June Squibb (Nebraska)
5. Sally Hawkins (Blue Jasmine)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1. Her (Spike Jonze)
2. American Hustle (Eric Warren Singer & David O. Russel)
3. Nebraska (Bob Nelson)
4. Blue Jasmine (Woody Allen)
5. Dallas Buyers Club (Craig Borten & Melisa Wallack)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1. 12 Years a Slave (John Ridley)
2. Before Midnight (Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke & Richard Linklater)
3. Philomena (Steve Coogan & Jeff Pope)
4. The Wolf of Wall Street (Terence Winter)
5. Captain Phillips (Billy Ray)

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
1. Gravity (Emmanuel Lubezki)
2. Inside Llewyn Davis (Bruno Delbonnel)
3. Prisoners (Roger Deakins)
4. Nebraska (Phedon Papamichael)
5. Grandmaster (Philipe Le Sourd)

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
1. Gravity (Steven Price)
2. Saving Mr. Banks (Thomas Newman)
3. Her (Arcade Fire)
4. Philomena (Alexandre Desplat)
5. The Book Thief (John Williams)

That's it for today, I'll update during the week. Don't forget to look up the OSCAR RACE page on the right hand side on the sidebar. ------------->>>>>>>>>