A race dominated by one race

   A lot has happened since my last post. Namely the Oscar nominations were announced, shamefully snubbing Ava DuVernay, David Oyelowo, Jake Gylenhaal and one could argue that Jennifer Aniston should be up there. It all looked settled that day, January 15th. But the guilds sure did throw a curveball. PGA came on the 24th announcing their winner... BOOM! Birdman? Wow, I thought, that's fantastic for the race, right? Or is it? And one day later the actors spoke out naming... Birdman their top prize winner. But the most interesting event of that evening was yet another shameful decision. Eddie Redmayne taking Best Actor over Michael Keaton. They were all very good, but, good God, Keaton deserved it! What we got out of that, however, is an actual race. Is Boyhood still the frontrunner? Is it Birdman? Or could something else squeak through like The Imitation Game? Or The Grand Budapest Hotel?
   So what does Redmayne winning mean to us? Well let's go back to 2003 when Johnny Depp won the award for Pirates of the Caribbean. And then the Academy made another silly decision by awarding Sean Penn for Mystic River. Thinking that they should probably follow the SAGs from now on to avoid any future mistakes they chose the same actor for the next 10 years. What they didn't count for is that sometimes SAG would get it wrong. McConaughey? Good, but not the best. And now Redmayne.
       I tend to be a strong believer in statistics, but only when I think they are useful and make a precedence. Like the unison in which SAG and the Academy choose their leading men. It's been 10 years in a row for crying out loud! Who knows when it will stop? Probably when SAG chooses some clearly un-Oscar type role. Or even better a role that is not nominated at Oscars, or is in another category (supporting). Or could it only be an even 10 years for them? Now the Oscar will go to Keaton and we'll have 10 years of not matching? Let's wait for the BAFTAs, but if there is a statistic I believe in (especially after last year), and do so very carefully, I'll give the edge to Redmayne for the time being. He was the favorite for the BAFTA even before the SAG awards. He will win it, giving him another precursor. He won the Globe, SAG. Keaton won the Globe and BFCA (x2) for now. However if he was to win at BAFTA, then he is the frontrunner, having beaten Redmayne in the latter's territory. So I am not sure where this puts us. In deep shit probably. And I love it, it's interesting, only I hope it turns out to be Keaton in the end.
         The season is in its full speed, the guilds roll out, but do they matter that much? What does matter when the final Oscar ballots are mailed out? We shall predict the winner if we try to think like voters.
        I prefer Birdman to Boyhood as a film, and would certainly cast my ballot in their favor, however multiple factors come to mind, even if you don't want them to. "LET THE BEST ONE WIN!" we keep telling ourselves. But we do know that that's a lie. Involontarily we choose the best one using merit as only one of the factors. For example, I'll vote for Birdman because it's the best. I'll give it a second thought because I'd love to see Boyhood win, the little film that could. The Grand Budapest Hotel because it would make my eyes pop out and it is such a great and watchable film. Selma because it got shut out and Whiplash because I loved it, and its small. Or say you don't like Boyhood OR Birdman. You like Whiplash the most. But you know it won't win, so you don't "waste" your vote on it and choose one of the films that have a chance, the one you dislike less.
        And remember they are WHITE, av. 62 years old and they are conservative. Oh, just look at Clint Eastwood. Did he vote for Ava DuVernay? Did some writer, that hasn't got a screenwriter's credit in 25 years and is way past the point in life when he should retire from active Academy membership, vote for Gillian Flynn?
      The Academy is a brutal and disfigured creature that runs around the streets and preaches of being a testament to democracy. So let's remind ourselves what the "D" word means. If a candidate has more votes than his opposition, even a SINGLE VOTE, then he is proclaimed the best. The winner. If Eddie Redmayne has one single goddamn vote more than Michael Keaton, we will talk about his Hawking portrayal as the year's best for many years to come. Not knowing that Michael Keaton was one (out of 6000) votes away to be co-best. Isn't democracy a bitch?
     So using that political knowledge let's name the Academy for what it is. If the majority of members are men, then the Academy is masculine, if they're white, the whole Academy is white and if averagely the age is 62, well then the Academy is considered to be a 62 year old white man. Look for diversity of races and sexes there. Yeah, the nominees say it for themselves. They're all white, and women are only in their exclusive categories. And a handful of female producers. The choice of the Academy will we corresponding to what the grout in fact is. It will be a choice that is worthy of a 62 year old white guy.
      The only question is, who does the white man choose? The obvious contender that comes to mind is the most Oscary choice, The Imitation Game. Well it's about a gay, that can't possibly strike a good note with some of those chaps over at the Academy. So let's look at what the others say is best. Boyhood and Birdman. And a little bit of Budapest. Every one of them is about men. Is it safe to say that the industry will choose only from the pool of films about men?
      I think that the problem with Birdman winning is that for many it will be difficult not to vote for Boyhood out of respect for the fact that is was filmed throughout 12 years. That is a strong factor, and is Boyhood's strongest weapon in a fight where the jurors are old white men. Birdman however is an insider of the industry. The film is about relevancy and the industry loves feeling relevant, so when they make a good movie about them - well, they eat it up. PGA did. And that was huge for Birdman's cause. But is it enough? They still need that crucial BAFTA to solidify themselves as frontrunners. Until then, Boyhood has the smallest of edges.
      And finally, now that we know we have a race, can we say that that's good? It's interesting, yes, but it can be harmful, oh yes. It comes down to four options.
  Number one: The race is fair and the best win it all, all the way up to the Oscars.
  Number two: The race is not fair, and still the same people win it all.
  Number three: The race is interesting, and the right people win.
  Number four: The race is interesting, and the wrong people win.
We have to possibilities of a fair race, which is what we want to have, right? One is boring, no surprises, and the other one is an interesting one, which is what we hope to be facing. The ugly truth is however, that it is extremely rare to have an interesting and fair race. In an interesting race, other people win all the time, but in a fair race, there is one that is the best and he should be winning. Translating to my choices, I think it's good for the RACE itself that somebody else won the Best Actor award but on the other hand it's bad because it shrinks the chances of the rightful winner. So if the price of an interesting race is that the best are to lose, than no thank you.
   Then you fall into a paradoxic circle, because when races are boring, there really isn't much to cover. So bloggers will shut up, and who's gonna bitch about the academy then? The bloggers feed on controversy, surprises and shockers. So my existence as a blogger is possible thanks to the source of my very misery. The source being, that rightful winners, sometimes lose. And we can work on a race then. And the pundits and bloggers have a race of their own. Who predicts the best? Because if there are surprises, some guess some not, giving an opportunity for the best and luckiest to win. And we celebrate our victories while crying over the defeats of the best. Not always of course, because we can predict against the best. It's all bitchy medium, the internet is, but we love it for the same exact reason we hate it. As well as the industry and the "Old white man".
     Summing it all up: The industry to be fair, must look broader beyond what pleases them and is appropriate for them. The Academy must look up from the old white male nose to see all that the diverse talent has to offer. And THAT will surely make it so much more interesting. And we the bloggers are occupied. And happy that everyone is recognized fairly. It's a dream of mine.

P.S. Forgot about one important thing. If Birdman wins D.G.A., meaning Innaritu does, then BP is theirs. That comes February 7th, brace yourselves.

P.P.S. I am disappointed (not surprised however) that the Academy (aka white old man) chose American Sniper as their BP nominee instead of other worthy choices like GONE GIRL (for chrissake) or Into the Woods. And of course Foxcatcher. And even though people seem to be okay with it, I am deeply let down by the fact that Bradley Cooper for the second consecutive year is nominated not having deserved to be.

Now to advance from all that profound bitching, let's see how the race look in accordance to the above:


BEST PICTURE

1. Boyhood (Richard Linklater)
2. Birdman (Alejandro G. Innaritu)
3. The Grand Budapest Hotel (Wes Anderson)
4. The Imitation Game (Morten Tyldum)
5. American Sniper (Clint Eastwood)
6. Selma (Ava DuVernay)
7. Whiplash (Damien Chazelle)
8. The Theory of Everything (James Marsh)


BEST DIRECTOR

1. Richard Linklater (Boyhood)
2. Alejandro G. Innaritu (Birdman)
3. Wes Anderson (The Grand Budapest Hotel)
4. Bennett Miller (Foxcatcher)
5. Morten Tyldum (The Imitation Game)


BEST ACTOR

1. Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything)
2. Michael Keaton (Birdman)
3. Benedict Cumberbatch (The Imitation Game)
4. Steve Carell (Foxcatcher)
5. Bradley Cooper (American Sniper)  (Geeez!)


BEST ACTRESS

1. Julianne Moore (Still Alice)
2. Rosamund Pike (Gone Girl)
3. Marion Cotillard (Two Days, One Night)
4. Reese Witherspoon (Wild)
5. Felicity Jones (The Theory of Everything)


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. J.K. Simmons (Whiplash)
2. Edward Norton (Birdman)
3. Ethan Hawke (Boyhood)
4. Mark Ruffalo (Foxcatcher)
5. Robert Duvall (The Judge)


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Patricia Arquette (Boyhood)
2. Emma Stone (Birdman)
3. Meryl Streep (Into the Woods)
4. Keira Knightley (The Imitation Game)
5. Laura Dern (Wild)


BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. Birdman
2. Boyhood
3. The Grand Budapest Hotel
4. Foxcatcher
5. Nightcrawler


BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. The Imitation Game
2. Whiplash
3. American Sniper
4. The Theory of Everything
5. Inherent Vice



That's all for now, see you after the DGAs which I assume will go to Innaritu. But they might throw us back to reality by choosing Linklater. Watch out for Morten Tyldum.


Burt Mizaki

DGA, BFCA & Oscar Nominations

    The guilds have all spoken, as far as nominations are concerned. In 10 out of 11 both "Birdman" and "The Grand Budapest Hotel" were mentioned which bodes well for them before nominations morning. Surprisingly (or nor) the DGA did not mention Ava DuVernay. As you might have noticed, I am a big fan of the work she did on Selma, so I was more than a little disappointed. Again we say: no screeners. Or other factors. Didn't happen, so what. It's a 14000 member group that consists of all the TV sitcom directors too. Those are their choices. And they chose Clint Eastwood for "American Sniper". Oh for heaven's sake, not only is the movie bad, the direction is nothing to be admired. Jeeeez those directors. Anyways if you're interested in this shit and the DGA snub and what not, here is Scott Feinberg's (Hollywood Reporter) take on the now infamous snub --> http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/dga-noms-story-behind-snub-763334

    The Globes have been given out, and what can I say. Great monologue, but not enough Tina & Amy? Too long speeches maybe and had to cut material. Or those walks to the stage through side balconies and etc. The winners - meh, no surprises... Except for Grand Budapest! Wow, that was a fun thing to see. And although I did predict Selma and Ava, Boyhood sweeping didn't come as a shock. It just solidifies it as the frontrunner. And he's running away... So yeah those ballsy predictions of mine didn't exactly go well. Anyway, let's go ballsy with the Academy. I never learn, I guess.

  Oh and one more thing on the Globes -> Not that I want to brag, but I do need to. I found out that I am ranked 4th on Gold Derby for predicting 87% of the Globes nominees correctly, back in December. Just found out. Better score than any other editor. Best of them, Anne Thompson 82%.

   In other stories, Thursday comes with a double treat. First in the morning we get to see who got raped by the respective branches in their categories. Someone will. And I fear it's Ava. Then later in the evening we get a televised awards show! Yeeey! The Critics' Choice Awards. Ohhhh... Not that I complain that it's so boring but... These are critics, and yet every year they do EVERYTHING to predict the Oscars. To feel relevant in the race. They don't want to be pushed aside and not be cared about. So they go with the flow, popping a surprise here and there (Philip Seymour Hoffman in 2013).

   Back to Oscars then. Question one: How many BP nominees? Oh chill out it's NINE. Or eight. Who  cares in the end? I'd rather see nine, because I want to see Gone Girl make it. Couple more question marks like if Selma is embraced. If yes then where (pic, director, actor, song --- oops, editing?)? If Aniston's Cake is watched and embraced? Emma Thompson was in a similar situation last year. Was in a movie that wasn't particularly well liked, and that cost her a nomination. I do hope she gets in though. Otherwise paves way for Amy Adams (God that Globe, oh why?). And the big question if Steve Carell gets nominated in Lead or Supporting? Or neither?

   I must say, some of the nominees I just try to imagine on that screen during the announcement. Of I can't picture the contender's face there, or the movie's title, than I don't write it down. Old fashioned predicting. So let's get to that. THE FINAL OSCAR NOMINATIONS PREDICTIONS (all categories):



BEST PICTURE

1. Boyhood (Richard Linklater)
2. Birdman (Alejandro G. Innaritu)
3. The Imitation Game (Morten Tyldum)
4. The Grand Budapest Hotel (Wes Anderson)
5. Selma (Ava DuVernay)
6. The Theory of Everything (James Marsh)
7. Nightcrawler (Dan Gilroy)
8. Whiplash (Damien Chazelle)
9. Gone Girl (David Fincher)
+MIGHT American Sniper (Clint Eastwood)



BEST DIRECTOR

1. Richard Linklater (Boyhood)
2. Alejandro G. Innaritu (Birdman)
3. Wes Anderson (The Grand Budapest Hotel)
4. Ava DuVernay (Selma)
5. Morten Tyldum (The Imitation Game)
+Dan Gilroy (Nightcrawler)



BEST ACTOR

1. Michael Keaton (Birdman)
2. Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything)
3. Benedict Cumberbatch (The Imitation Game)
4. Jake Gylenhaal (Nightcrawler)
5. David Oyelowo (Selma)
+Ralph Fiennes (The Grand Budapest Hotel)



BEST ACTRESS

1. Julianne Moore (Still Alice)
2. Rosamund Pike (Gone Girl)
3. Reese Witherspoon (Wild)
4. Felicity Jones (The Theory of Everything)
5. Jennifer Aniston (Cake)
+Amy Adams (Big Eyes)



BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. J.K. Simmons (Whiplash)
2. Edward Norton (Birdman)
3. Ethan Hawke (Boyhood)
4. Mark Ruffalo (Foxcatcher)
5. Steve Carell (Foxcatcher)
+Robert Duvall (The Judge)
 


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Patricia Arquette (Boyhood)
2. Meryl Streep (Into the Woods)
3. Keira Knightley (The Imitation Game)
4. Emma Stone (Birdman)
5. Rene Russo (Nightcrawler)
+Jessica Chastain (A Most Violent Year)



BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. Birdman
2. The Grand Budapest Hotel
3. Boyhood
4. Nightcrawler
5. Selma


BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. The Imitation Game
2. The Theory of Everything
3. Gone Girl
4. Whiplash
5. Wild


BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1. Birdman (Emmanuel Lubezki)
2. Mr. Turner (Dick Pope)
3. The Grand Budapest Hotel (Robert Yeoman)
4. Interstellar (Hoyte Van Hoytema)
5. Ida (Ryszard Lenczewski & Lukasz Zal)


BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1. The Theory of Everything (Johann Johannsson)
2. The Imitation Game (Alexandre Desplat)
3. Interstellar (Hans Zimmer)
4. The Grand Budapest Hotel (Alexandre Desplat)
5. Gone Girl (Trent Reznor & Atticus Ross)


BEST EDITING

1. Birdman
2. Boyhood
3. Whiplash
4. The Grand Budapest Hotel
5. Gone Girl


BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1. The Grand Budapest Hotel
2. Into the Woods
3. Mr. Turner
4. Interstellar
5. Unbroken


BEST COSTUME DESIGN

1. Into the Woods
2. Mr. Turner
3. The Grand Budapest Hotel
4. Exodus: Gods & Kings
5. Maleficent


BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

1. The Grand Budapest Hotel
2. Guardians of the Galaxy
3. Maleficent


BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1. "Glory" (Selma)
2. "Lost Stars" (Begin Again)
3. "Big Eyes" (Big Eyes)
4. "Everything Is Awesome" (The LEGO Movie)
5. "For the Dancing and the Dreaming" (How to Train Your Dragon 2)


BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

1. Ida (Poland)
2. Leviathan (Russia)
3. Wild Tales (Argentina)
4. Force Majeure (Sweden)
5. Timbuktu (Mauritania)


BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1. The LEGO Movie
2. How to Train Your Dragon 2
3. Big Hero 6
4. Boxtrolls
5. The Book of Life


BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1. Citizenfour
2. Life Itself
3. Keep on Keepin' On
4. Last Days in Vietnam
5. Finding Vivian Maier


BEST SOUND MIXING

1. Into the Woods
2. The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies
3. Birdman
4.American Sniper
5. Fury


BEST SOUND EDITING

1. Whiplash
2. Interstellar
3. Into the Woods
4. American Sniper
5. The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies


BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1. Interstellar
2. Dawn of the Planets of the Apes
3. The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies
4. Guardians of the Galaxy
5. Godzilla


BEST ANIMATED SHORT

1. Feast
2. The Bigger Picture
3. Footprints
4. Symphony No.42
5. The Dam Keeper


BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

1. Carry On
2. The Phone Call
3. Boogaloo and Graham
4. My Father's Truck
5. SLR


BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

1. The Lion's Mouth Opens
2. Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1
3. One Child
4. White Earth
5. The Reaper



What an excruciating activity. Gosh. See you after "Cruel Morning".

BURT mizaki

First big awards show, let's go crazy!

   I don't want to brag right from the start but I did quite well predicting the Globe nominees nailing 3 or 4 major categories. So the time has come to look at the winners. Let's have them predicted! Most of you probably know that many leak stories (of course) have been "leaked". That "Selma" being on the Best Drama winner page. Then the site actually ranking their nominees on the site. They weren't in alphabetical order, apparently "random". Well funny that it was so random and yet each category "randomly" started with the actual frontrunner to win. But do those leaks really mean something? We had that Anne Hathaway leaked win in 2009, and two days later Kate Winslet won, so go figure. By the way 2008 was a year of leaks anyway. If you remember the supposed Oscar winners list being leaked.
   Let's hope the fun isn't spoiled and I do, more than ever, hope for a race shift. I do love Boyhood, but I'd love to see Selma take that Best Drama and Director prize. For other wishes I would enjoy Interstellar taking score, Stone nabbing supporting, Jake Gylenhaal or David Oyelowo in Lead Drama, and it would make my day if Jennifer Aniston won in her category. That would give the shake up this race so desperately needs.
   Anyway, nothing that happens tomorrow, affects the Oscar nominations, the voting on which ended on Thursday. So here we are, Globes tomorrow and Oscar noms in 5 days. Who was on top this week definitely took advantage of that. This was the week to have the momentum going. I'm a bit concerned by the Selma controversy possibly hurting the film. Might Ava DuVernay, possibly the best director of the year, have not gotten enough of votes because of that? If she wins the Globe yet fails to get an Oscar nom, I swear to God I'm switching to Globe coverage instead of Oscars.
   I'm in a ballsy "no guts no glory" mood, so let's get to the predictions. And by the way. Why not a Selma sweep to shut the controversy up? I think I'd cry if it happened. I would love the HFPA forever.


BEST PICTURE DRAMA

Boyhood (Richard Linklater)
Foxcatcher (Bennet Miller)
The Imitation Game (Morten Tyldum)
Selma (Ava DuVernay)
The Theory of Everything (James Marsh)

Will win: Selma
Could win: Boyhood
Should win: Selma


BEST PICTURE COMEDY OR MUSICAL

Birdman (Alejandro G. Innaritu)
The Grand Budapest Hotel (Wes Anderson)
Into the Woods (Rob Marshall)
Pride (Matthew Warchus)
St. Vincent (Theodore Melfi)

Will win: Birdman
Could win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Should win: Birdman


BEST DIRECTOR

Wes Anderson (The Grand Budapest Hotel)
Ava DuVernay (Selma)
David Fincher (Gone Girl)
Alejandro G. Innaritu (Birdman)
Richard Linklater (Boyhood)

Will win: Ava DuVernay
Could win: Wes Anderson
Should win: Ava DuVernay


BEST ACTOR DRAMA

Steve Carell (Foxcatcher)
Benedict Cumberbatch (The Imitation Game)
Jake Gylenhaal (Nightcrawler)
David Oyelowo (Selma)
Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything)

Will win: David Oyelowo
Could win: Eddie Redmayne
Should win: David Oyelowo or Jake Gylenhaal


BEST ACTRESS DRAMA

Jennifer Aniston (Cake)
Felicity Jones (The Theory of Everything)
Julianne Moore (Still Alice)
Rosamund Pike (Gone Girl)
Reese Witherspoon (Wild)

Will win: Julianne Moore
Could win: Jennifer Aniston
Should win: Rosamund Pike


BEST ACTOR COMEDY OR MUSICAL

Ralph Fiennes (The Grand Budapest Hotel)
Michael Keaton (Birdman)
Bill Murray (St. Vincent)
Joaquin Phoenix (Inherent Vice)
Christoph Waltz (Big Eyes)

Will win: Michael Keaton
Could win: Ralph Fiennes
Should win: Both of them are perfect to win


BEST ACTRESS COMEDY OR MUSICAL

Amy Adams (Big Eyes)
Emily Blunt (Into the Woods)
Helen Mirren (The Hundred Foor Journey)
Julianne Moore (Maps to the Stars)
Quvenzhane Wallis (Annie)

Will win: Emily Blunt
Could win: Helen Mirren
Should win: What a relatively poor line up but I guess Emily Blunt. Or Moore. Or Mirren. The latter would be a fun surprise.


BEST SCREENPLAY

Birdman
Boyhood
Gone Girl
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game

Will win: Birdman
Could win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Should win: Birdman


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Robert Duvall (The Judge)
Ethan Hawke (Boyhood)
Edward Norton (Birdman)
Mark Ruffalo (Foxcatcher)
J.K. Simmons (Whiplash)

Will win: J.K. Simmons
Could win: Edward Norton
Should win: J.K. Simmons


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Patricia Arquette (Boyhood)
Jessica Chastain (A Most Violent Year)
Keira Knightley (The Imitation Game)
Emma Stone (Birdman)
Meryl Streep (Into the Woods)

Will win: Patricia Arquette
Could win: Emma Stone
Should win: Emma Stone


BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Birdman (Antonio Sanchez)
Gine Girl (Trent Reznor & Atticus Ross)
The Imitation Game (Alexandre Desplat)
Interstellar (Hans Zimmer)
The Theory of Everything (Johann Johannsson)

Will win: Birdman
Could win: Interstellar
Should win: Interstellar


BEST ORIGINAL SONG

"Big Eyes" by Lana Del Rey (Big Eyes)
"Glory" by John Legend and Common (Selma)
"Mercy Is" by Patti Smith (Noah)
"Opportunity" by Greg Kurstin, Sia Furler, Will Gluck (Annie)
"Yellow Flicker Beat" by Lorde (The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 1

Will win: "Glory"
Could win: "Yellow Flicker Beat"
Should win: Any of the two


BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

Force Majeure (Sweden)
Gett: The Trial of Vivane Amsalem (Israel)
Ida (Poland)
Leviathan (Russia)
Tangerines (Estonia)

Will win: Ida
Could win: Force Majeure
Should win: Ida


BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Big Hero 6
The Book of Life
The Boxtrolls
How to Train Your Dragon 2
The LEGO Movie

Will win: The LEGO Movie
Could win: How to Trail Your Dragon 2




Ok that's all for now, see you after the Globes and we'll see if my gutsy choices will have paid off.


BURT MIZAKI