A look at the Globes. SAG nominations in. Critics have spoken. Let's go!

    Sunday's LAFCA, Boston and NYOFC have all spoken, all naming Boyhood the BPOY. At the LAFCAs, however, runner-up The Grand Budapest Hotel was only 2 votes behind. We have a situation clearing up with a couple frontrunners, and an open category, which was the first one to be called a "lock" weeks ago - the leading actors.
    The SAG Awards nominations came in this morning with a couple surprises. But speaking of the actors let's take a look at their category. For the last 10 consecutive years (all in all 16 out of 21) the best actor at the SAGs went on to win the Oscar. How will it be this year? Does that mean that the race for the win is now between only 5 guys?
    Keaton, Redmayne, Cumberbatch, Gylenhaal and Carell have all been mentioned and as far as statistics go - they are the only 5 that can win it. That of course doesn't mean that they will be all nominated, no. It means that Even of Oyelowo is nominated for an Oscar, or say Timothy Spall, they won't win. That's what the stats say. And I'm not a big fan of them, but this one is quite impressive isn't it? It makes you doubt wether this year is the year for the rule to be broken? Could it be this easy? 10 in a row, and than 10 years of no overlap?
   Among the leading ladies stands a little surprise, although I kind of saw it coming, Jennifer Aniston. She has a wonderful role in "Cake" and it is the type that is "actor-friendly". Meaning - she's getting nominated. MEANING - She's getting that fifth slot. And it might just be confirmed should come Golden Globe nomination morning, Cotillard, Swank and Blunt miss out on nominations. But that's not gonna happen. Blunt is likely to win her category which kind of gets in the way of Aniston. I'd say Aniston has more of a meaty turn, but momentum does a lot.
     Supporting ladies - Yes, as expected....aha yes, Knightley....WHAT?! Naomi Watts? But her role in Birdman is waaayy too "out of the way" for it to be nominated! Ohhh WHAT? It's not for Birdman? It's for St. Vincent? *Now imagine my face, covering a skull inside which the brain suddenly exploded, filled with a massively confused WTF!*. After about 30 seconds I start to relax and realize: This is f*cking fantastic! I mean the performance wasn't that deserving, but it was extremely funny. Besides we needed that WTF moment in the race. Can't remember the last time that happened. And that's just sad.
  Well hell so with all that we go into Golden Globes, and let's just say - that's when the fun starts. If Jessica Chastain and Laura Dern don't get nominated, they're in deep shit. So is Selma. But Selma will. And it will be a hit with the HFPA. So let's go, let's look at the Globes. We'll take a look at the race after that. Here are this season's first Golden Globe predictions from me:



BEST MOTION PICTURE DRAMA

1. Boyhood (Richard Linklater)
2. Selma (Ava DuVernay)
3. The Imitation Game (Morten Tyldum)
4. Unbroken (Angeline Jolie)
5. The Theory of Everything (James Marsh)

Watch it sneak in: Mr. Turner (Mike Leigh)
Would make your eyes pop out: The Babadook (Jennifer Kent)


BEST MOTION PICTURE COMEDY OR MUSICAL

1. Birdman (Alejandro Gonzalez Innaritu)
2. Into The Woods (Rob Marshall)
3. The Grand Budapest Hotel (Wes Anderson)
4. St. Vincent (Theodore Melfi)
5. Inherent Vice (Paul Thomas Anderson)

Watch it sneak in: Top Five (Chris Rock)
Would make your eyes pop out: Guardians of the Galaxy (James Gunn)



BEST DIRECTOR

1. Richard Linklater (Boyhood)
2. Alejandro Gonzalez Innaritu
3. Ava DuVernay (Selma)
4. Angelina Jolie (Unbroken)
5. David Fincher (Gone Girl)

Watch it: Mike Leigh (Mr. Turner)
WTF: Rob Marshall (Into The Woods)


BEST ACTOR DRAMA

1. Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything)
2. David Oyelowo (Selma)
3. Benedict Cumberbatch (The Imitation Game)
4. Steve Carell (Foxcatcher)
5. Jake Gylenhaal (Nightcrawler)

Watch it: Bradley Cooper (American Sniper)
WTF: Chadwick Boseman (Get On Up)


BEST ACTRESS DRAMA

1. Julianne Moore (Still Alice)
2. Rosamund Pike (Gone Girl)
3. Felicity Jones (The Theory of Everything)
4. Reese Witherspoon (Wild)
5. Jennifer Aniston (Cake)

Watch it: Hilary Swank (The Homesman)
WTF: Scarlett Johansson (Under The Skin)


BEST ACTOR COMEDY OR MUSICAL

1. Michael Keaton (Birdman)
2. Bill Murray (St. Vincent)
3. Ralph Fiennes (The Grand Budapest Hotel)
4. Chris Rock (Top Five)
5. Joaquin Phoenix (Inherent Vice)

Watch it: James Corden (Into The Woods)
WTF: Al Pacino (The Humbling)


BEST ACTRESS COMEDY OR MUSICAL

1. Emily Blunt (Into The Woods)
2. Angelina Jolie (Maleficent)
3. Amy Adams (Big Eyes)
4. Helen Mirren (The Hundred Foot Journey)
5. Jenny Slate (Obvious Child)

Watch it: Keira Knightley (Begin Again)
WTF: Shirley MacLaine (Elsa & Fred)


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. J.K. Simmons (Whiplash)
2. Edward Norton (Birdman)
3. Ethan Hawke (Boyhood)
4. Robert Duvall (The Judge)
5. Josh Brolin (Inherent Vice)

Watch it: Mark Ruffalo (Foxcatcher)
WTF: Chris Pine (Into The Woods)


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Patricia Arquette (Boyhood)
2. Meryl Streep (Into The Woods)
3. Keira Knightley (The Imitation Game)
4. Emma Stone (Birdman)
5. Jessica Chastain (A Most Violent Year)

Watch it: Laura Dern (Wild)
WTF: Naomi Watts (St. Vincent)


BEST SCREENPLAY

1. Birdman
2. Boyhood
3. The Imitation Game
4. Gone Girl
5. The Grand Budapest Hotel

Watch it: Foxcatcher
WTF: Top Five (Chris Rock)


BEST SCORE

1. Interstellar
2. The Theory of Everything
3. The Imitation Game
4. Gone Girl
5. Birdman

Watch it: Unbroken


BEST FOREIGN FILM

1. Ida (Poland)
2. Wild Tales (Argentina)
3. Winter Sleep (Turkey)
4. Force Majeure (Sweden)
5. Mommy (Canada)



So that's all, I don't know anything about the other categories, so we''ll just stay with this.

Burt Mizaki

NYFCC has spoken, Boyhood looks solid in Picture

    Yeah it starts in September, but today we had the first actual awards - the NYFCC. And this year the voters stayed right until the end, so no American Hustle win this time folks! Boyhood ran the show stealing 3 awards including Picture, Director, Sup. Actress (Patricia Arquette). We did have some surprises that always make the season more pleasant and exciting, like Timothy Spall in Best Actor for "Mr. Turner" and Marion Cotillard in Best Actress for "Two Days, One Night" and "The Immigrant".
    One thing that we've learned from today, is that the main concern about Boyhood - will it be remembered and, most of all, campaigned enough - is theoretically false. Theoretically because these are the critics. And Boyhood has a 100 on Metacritic, it is their favorite. False because it showed its great potential and gained crucial momentum, entering the race, as the Globes nominations are being voted on soon. As well as the SAGs and all the other guilds.
    THIS is one of the big weeks. The critics' week. Today NYFCC, wednesday NBR, sunday LAFCC. Whoever wins the most by sunday, cake-walks into the Globes. And they are commercial and unreliable, but sometimes they do choose right, and they are prestigious. They give a helluva boost. You win there, you can be almost sure of an Oscar nomination. ALMOST. Big boost.
   So yes, Boyhood won big today, while its prime competitors Birdman, Selma, The Imitation Game, completely failed, were shut out. However tonight we have the Gotham awards, which will give us at least something to think about ahead of the NBR announcement. For now it looks very well for Linklater & co.
    So let's have a look at the race right now, and then after NBR on wednesday. Under each category I will be putting my NBR predictions.



BEST PICTURE:

1. Boyhood (Richard Linklater)
2. Selma (Ava DuVernay)
3. Birdman (Alejandro Gonzalez Innaritu)
4. The Imitation Game (Morten Tyldum)
5. Whiplash (Damien Chazelle)
6. The Theory of Everything (James Marsh)
7. Unbroken (Angelina Jolie)
8. Interstellar (Christopher Nolan)
9. Into the Woods (Rob Marshall)

NBR: Whiplash (2. Birdman; 3. Selma)


BEST DIRECTOR:

1. Richard Linklater (Boyhood)
2. Ava DuVernay (Selma)
3. Alejandro Gonzalez Innaritu (Birdman)
4. Morten Tyldum (The Imitation Game)
5. Damien Chazelle (Whiplash)

NBR: Alejandro Gonzalez Innaritu (2. Richard Linklater; 3. Ava DuVernay)


BEST ACTOR:

1. Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Evrything)
2. Michael Keaton (Birdman)
3. David Oyelowo (Selma)
4. Benedict Cumberbatch (The Imitation Game)
5. Steve Carell (Foxcatcher)

NBR: David Oyelowo (2. Michael Keaton; 3. Steve Carell)


BEST ACTRESS:

1. Julianne Moore (Still Alice)
2. Felicity Jones (The Theory of Everything)
3. Rosamund Pike (Gone Girl)
4. Reese Witherspoon (Wild)
5. Emily Blunt (Into the Woods)

NBR: Felicity Jones (2. Reese Witherspoon; 3. Julianne Moore)


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:

1. J.K. Simmons (Whiplash)
2. Edward Norton (Birdman)
3. Mark Ruffalo (Foxcatcher)
4. Ethan Hawke (Boyhood)
5. Tim Roth (Selma)

NBR: J.K. Simmons (Whiplash)


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:

1. Patricia Arquette (Boyhood)
2. Meryl Streep (Into the Woods)
3. Emma Stone (Birdman)
4. Keira Knightley (The Imitation Game)
5. Carmen Ejogo (Selma)

NBR: Emma Stone (2. Patricia Arquette 3. Meryl Streep)

BEST CAST ENSEMBLE (NBR):
1. Birdman
2. Boyhood
3. Foxcatcher



BURT MIZAKI

Premiered and embargoed - the drama continues...

     Here we are in this magical moment in the race - all of the contenders have premiered. And no I do not include Ridley Scott's "Exodus: Gods & Kings", which to me, is obviously not a major threat. So all of the have premiered, but some are still embargoed. The Unbroken distributors are playing this game with us where some people see the movie, and we're supposed to be excited and await the verdict. Only nobody seems to care about it that much. No leaks, no discussion. The word is that there was applause, no standing ovation. In other words "Good". That's it. Do we really need another "good" movie? And is "good" good enough? When we have phenomenal pictures like Birdman, Boyhood and Foxcatcher? "Unbroken" will, of course, have a major campaign, but i dare to say that the quality of the film itself, would have to be overwhelming. And the word is - it's not. These kind of Oscary films need another factor to push them onwards. Something that definitely helped the "good" Titanic. Acting noms. And I just don't see those applying for "Unbroken". Actors' race is packed and Jack O'Connel will have a nearly impossible task, while Miyavi... well when you think about it, will they really embrace a Japanese popstar? Or whatever kind of music he does?
    Now, don't get me wrong, the movie might be legitimately good and touching, but I'm writing about the Oscar season, and I only see it as a big nomination led picture. I wouldn't put my money on it as far as wins are concerned. Perhaps the heightened expectations as "the kind of film that is the winner" damaged its run so far.
    The other embargoed film is "Into the Woods". That one is interesting enough thanks to have been rejected by many as a legitimate contender. I mean, "Unbroken" still has a better shot at BP than "Into the Woods", but the latter never was going to go for the win, right? It's about production design, costumes and other sure thing technical categories. But also acting. They have a great ensemble, Emily Blunt, Meryl Streep, Anna Kendrick, Chris Pine to name a few. And there is a lot of talking about it. Twitter is singing Streep's praises, but also the three others I mentioned above, and others. Many have called the song "Stay With Me", sung by Streep, the most powerful moment in the film, and it is "the killer scene" that gets you a nomination. It would be a (her own) record-breaking 19th nomination for Meryl Streep. Some have even called her a frontrunner. And while I wouldn't be to fast with my excitement, I think she looks strong.
    Also since the last time I posted predictions, 3 films premiered to great reception. "Selma" (Ava DuVernay), "American Sniper" (Clint Eastwood) and "A Most Violent Year" (J.C. Chandor). Personally I think that "Selma" might make a run for the money, but there's something odd about it. I can't figure it out, but I think it's awards season story has something to surprise us with. There will be something unexpected about it. As for "American Sniper" I feel the momentum, but I'm not sure if it's universally acclaimed enough. Chandor's picture looks like the quiet sneaker, the one that will be pushed by its quality.
    Next time I write we will be entering the Critics' awards. NYFC, LAFCC, NBR all in the beginning of December. But for now, let's take a look at the Oscar race:



BEST PICTURE:

1. Boyhood (Richard Linklater)
2. Birdman (Alejandro Gonzalez Innaritu)
3. Selma (Ava DuVernay)
4. The Imitation Game (Morten Tyldum)
5. Unbroken (Angelina Jolie)
6. Interstellar (Christopher Nolan)
7. Into the Woods (Rob Marshall)
8. Still Alice (Wash Westmoreland & Richard Glatzer)
9. Foxcatcher (Bennet Miller)



BEST DIRECTOR:

1. Alejandro Gonzalez Innaritu (Birdman)
2. Richard Linklater (Boyhood)
3. Ava DuVernay (Selma)
4. Angelina Jolie (Unbroken)
5. Christopher Nolan (Interstellar)



BEST ACTOR:

1. Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything)
2. Michael Keaton (Birdman)
3. David Oyelowo (Selma)
4. Benedict Cumberbatch (The Imitation Game)
5. Steve Carell (Foxcatcher)



BEST ACTRESS:

1. Julianne Moore (Still Alice)
2. Felicity Jones (The Theory of Everything)
3. Rosamund Pike (Gone Girl)
4. Reese Witherspoon (Wild)
5. Emily Blunt (Into the Woods)



BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:

1. J.K. Simmons (Whiplash)
2. Edward Norton (Birdman)
3. Ethan Hawke (Boyhood)
4. Mark Ruffalo (Birdman)
5. Josh Brolin (Inherent Vice)



BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:

1. Patricia Arquette (Boyhood)
2. Jessica Chastain (A Most Violent Year)
3. Meryl Streep (Into the Woods)
4. Emma Stone (Birdman)
5. Carmen Ejogo (Selma)



BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:

1. Birdman (Alejandro Gonzalez Innaritu, Nicolas Giacobone, Alexander Dinelaris, Armando Bo)
2. Boyhood (Richard Linklater)
3. Foxcatcher (E. Max Frye, Dan Futterman)
4. Whiplash (Damien Chazelle)
5. Interstellar (Christopher Nolan & Jonathan Nolan)



BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:

1. The Imitation Game (Graham Moore)
2. Unbroken (Joel & Ethan Coen, Richard LaGravanese, William Nicholson)
3. The Theory of Everything (Anthony McCarten)
4. Into the Woods (James Lapine)
5. Gone Girl (Gillian Flynn)



BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY:

1. Birdman (Emmanuel Lubezki)
2. Interstellar (Hoyte van Hoytema)'
3. Unbroken (Roger Deakins)
4. Mr. Turner (Dick Pope)
5. Bradford Young (Selma)



BEST ORIGINAL SCORE:

1. Interstellar (Hans Zimmer)
2. The Imitation Game (Alexandre Desplat)
3. The Theory of Everything (Johann Johannsson)
4. Gone Girl (Trent Reznor & Atticus Ross)
5. Unbroken (Alexandre Desplat)



That's it for now, check out the OSCAR RACE page on the right to see the complete leaderboard.

BURT MIZAKI

4 months to go!

     I must admit that this year is by far, more interesting than the last. At this point we all knew who would take the Best Picture award, the Director award, Actress and supporting actor. This year, none of those categories are predictable. The only one of all that might be considered an early lock is Emmanuel Lubezki in cinematography for "Birdman". Perhaps Patricia Arquette for "Boyhhod", is in the lead in her category. But as for the rest, nothing is for sure. That's why my Oscar Leaderboard, might come in handy this year. It is a combination of points collected by contenders. The points are awarded for certain spots in predictions, and for winning awards.
   Also, we are past the TIFF, NYFF and other festivals. It is the time between major festivals, and before the actual awards season starts. I mean, generally, the six months from September to February are called awards season, but I mean the actual months (December - February) when they do give the awards out. We've seen many films be praised. For example "Birdman" has the momentum now. It got raves in NY, and is by many called a masterpiece. It would be interesting to see it be a major contender. We haven't seen a comedy take the top prize in quite some time, have we? And no, I do not count "The Artist" as a comedy. Then we have "Foxcatcher" which was also praised in Toronto, however was called "too dark" to actually stand a chance. And then we have films, that we haven't seen yet, like "Unbroken" (which is set to premiere in Australia on November 17th. Also we have "Interstellar" - no one has seen it, no one really knows too much about it. And "Into the Woods" which only showed us 1 trailer so far, which did not look to appealing. And it is a musical - no songs in trailer. Anyways, let's move on.
   As for now, let's take a look at the main categories:
 

BEST PICTURE:

1. Birdman (Alejandro G. Innaritu)
2. The Imitation Game (Morten Tyldum)
3. Unbroken (Angelina Jolie)
4. Boyhood (Richard Linklater)
5. Foxcatcher (Bennet Miller)
6. Interstellar (Christopher Nolan)
7. Gone Girl (David Fincher)
8. American Sniper (Clint Eastwood)
9. Whiplash (Damien Chazelle)
10. Into the Woods (Rob Marshall)



BEST DIRECTOR:

1. Alejandro G. Innaritu (Birdman)
2. Bennet Miller (Foxcatcher)
3. Angelina Jolie (Unbroken)
4. Christopher Nolan (Interstellar)
5. Richard Linklater (Boyhood)


BEST ACTOR:

1. Michael Keaton (Birdman)
2. Steve Carell (Foxcatcher)
3. Benedict Cumberbatch (The Imitation Game)
4. Timothy Spall (Mr. Turner)
5. Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything)


BEST ACTRESS:

1. Julianne Moore (Still Alice)
2. Rosamund Pike (Gone Girl)
3. Felicity Jones (The Theory of Everything)
4. Emily Blunt (Into the Woods)
5. Jessica Chastain (A Most Violent Year)


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:

1. J.K. Simmons (Whiplash)
2. Edward Norton (Birdman)
3. Mark Ruffalo (Foxcatcher)
4. Ethan Hawke (Boyhood)
5. Miyavi (Unbroken)


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:

1. Patricia Arquette (Boyhood)
2. Keira Knightley (The Imitation Game)
3. Meryl Streep (Into the Woods)
4. Emma Stone (Birdman)
5. Katherine Waterston (Inherent Vice)



This is it for now. Next time we'll take a look at screenplays too. And cinematography and music. See you soon.

Burt Mizaki

5 days to Oscar Season

   We are now 5 days away from the so called "Oscar Season", and I am back to write regularly on my thoughts, predictions and hopes for the upcoming 6 months. Sometime 6 months ago, 12 Years a Slave (No1 on my Top10 list of 2013) was awarded the Best Picture Oscar. As we are in the middle of the "Oscar year", which begins the day after the annual ceremony, it is time to take a look at what we have.
   Couple months ago I posted a list of my then predicted Oscar nominees. Even now I see, some of my mentions are long shots. So I'm gonna take another shot today.
 

BEST PICTURE:

1. Unbroken (Angelina Jolie)
2. Foxcatcher (Bennet Miller)
3. Fury (David Ayer)
4. Interstellar (Christopher Nolan)
5. Birdman (Alejandro Gonzalez Innaritu)
6. Wild (Jean-Marc Vallee)
7. Mr. Turner (Mike Leigh)
8. The Grand Budapest Hotel (Wes Anderson)
9. Gone Girl (David Fincher)
10. Boyhood (Richard Linklater)


BEST DIRECTOR:

1. Angelina Jolie (Unbroken)
2. Bennet Miller (Foxcatcher)
3. Alejandro Gonzalez Innaritu (Birdman)
4. Christopher Nolan (Interstellar)
5. Wes Anderson (The Grand Budapest Hotel)


BEST ACTOR:

1. Steve Carell (Foxcatcher)
2. Michael Keaton (Birdman)
3. Timothy Spall (Mr. Turner)
4. Jack O'Connell (Unbroken)
5. Channing Tatum (Foxcatcher)


BEST ACTRESS:

1. Rosamund Pike (Gone Girl)
2. Julianne Moore (Maps to the Stars)
3. Amy Adams (Big Eyes)
4. Hilary Swank (The Homesman)
5. Meryl Streep (Into the Woods)


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:

1. Edward Norton (Birdman)
2. Mark Ruffalo (Foxcatcher)
3. J.K. Simmons (Whiplash)
4. Logan Lerman (Fury)
5. Robert Duvall (Judge)


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:

1. Patricia Arquette (Boyhood)
2. Imelda Staunton (Pride)
3. Laura Dern (Wild)
4. Emma Stone (Birdman)
5. Oprah Winfrey (Selma)




Why those choices? I don't know. I base it on experience. What certain contenders are thought to be favorites at the time and how they ended up, in the end, in the previous years. The types of movies and performances, the actors and filmmakers. I try to see the actors faces on the nominations screen. The one thing I've learned over the time I've spent on predicting - learn to listen to your intuition. It's more painful when you're wrong after your intuition is telling you something and you ignore it, than being wrong after following your gut.

However complicated that might've sounded, that's about it. It's not a written process, it's not in a book. It's just complicated. Explanation elaboration for the next time.

Burt Mizaki

Top 10 of 2013

    It's a little bit late to do this, but I seem to have forgotten to post my top 10 of the year 2013. As you may know from my 2013 Burt Awards, the list is topped by "12 Years a Slave". I consider it to be a filmmaking masterpiece, the acting is mesmerizing, the direction and the screenplay, everything works perfectly. I also think in other categories, like will it be a film that I will remember from that year. Will it? I'm sure I will. It's powerful and important. As well as the remaining 9 on the list, they are all memorable and extremely watchable (although I don't consider 12 Years a Slave to be watchable). They may be a little bit different from my Awards nominees, as I had time to rematch and reconsider. So here they are:


1.     12 Years a Slave (Steve McQueen)

2.      The Wolf of Wall Street (Martin Scorsese)

3.   Her (Spike Jonze)

4.       Gravity (Alfonso Cuaron)

5.   Philomena (Stephen Frears)

6.       Dallas Buyers Club (Jean-Marc Vallee)

7.       Captain Phillips (Paul Greengrass)

8.        Side Effects (Steven Soderbergh)

9.        Inside Llewyn Davis (Joel & Ethan Coen)

10.    American Hustle (David O. Russel)




So that is my list. Of course probably over the years as I will be re-watching them, it will change. But for the time being that is my 2013 TOP 10.

21 out of 24

    So it's not like I was fast with coming back after the Oscars, but let's say that the atmosphere has cooled down. The year for Oscar-bloggers is now over, and another one begins. So let's look at the passing one, and get ready for the 2014-2015 season.
    So many excellent films from Steven Soderbergh's "Side Effects" in February, through "Blue Jasmine" in July, all the way to the 'Awards Jackpot', which is what I like to call the three months before the end of the calendar year, that are packed with hopefuls. The film that collected the most Best Picture awards this season, "12 Years a Slave", made it all the way up to Oscar night and left with the most important prize, despite the fact that another great picture, "Gravity", earned 7 awards. 2 Years in a row we have a situation where the Best Picture winner fails to win Best Director, and leaves the ceremony with 3 Oscars. Some pleasant ones, although no surprises, really. Spike Jonze for "Her" was one of the pleasers. The actors were what we expected, which happens a second year in a row that there are absolutely no surprises there. The last time that we had a considerably unexpected winner here was Meryl Streep for "The Iron Lady", when most predicted Viola Davis (I predicted Streep).
    So anyways, there will be more time to think about the 2013 year, but let's take this moment to look into 2014. What do we know? What are we sure of? Let's see.
    Statistically only 3 (out of 9) this early predicted BP nominees get the nods. Last year many saw "American Hustle" as a contender. Also some saw "Gravity" coming. So let's not hope that all the broadly mentioned titles will make the cut in a year. Actually, I hope that this year will bring some surprises. We've waited for those long enough.


Best Picture (in likelihood of getting nominated, not winning):

1. Interstellar (Christopher Nolan)
2. Inherent Vice (Paul Thomas Anderson)
3. Foxcatcher (Bennet Miller)
4. Birdman (Alejandro Gonzalez Innaritu)
5. Into the Woods (Rob Marshall)
6. Unbroken (Angeline Jolie)
7. Trash (Stephen Daldry)
8. The Grand Budapest Hotel (Wes Anderson)
9. Big Eyes (Tim Burton)
10. Get On Up (Tate Taylor)



Best Director (the same order):

1. Christopher Nolan (Interstellar)
2. Bennet Miller (Foxcatcher)
3. Alejandro Gonzalez Innaritu (Birdman)
4. Paul Thomas Anderson (Inherent Vice)
5. Tim Burton (Big Eyes)

6. Angelina Jolie (Unbroken)


Best Actor:

1. Steve Carell (Foxcatcher)
2. Michael Keaton (Birdman)
3. Oscar Isaac (A Most Violent Year)
4. Chadwick Boseman (Get On Up)
5. Ralph Fiennes (The Grand Budapest Hotel)

6. Joaquin Phoenix (Inherent Vice)


Best Actress:

1. Amy Adams (Big Eyes)
2. Michelle Williams (Suite Francaise)
3. Berenice Bejo (The Search)
4. Reese Witherspoon (Wild)
5. Meryl Streep/Emily Blunt (Into the Woods) --->>> We don't know if they are going to push her here or in supporting. The play, I think, had the "Witch actress" win a leading actress Tony.

6. Jennifer Garner (Men, Women & Children)


Best Supporting Actor:

1. Mark Ruffalo (Foxcatcher)
2. J.K. Simmons (Whiplash)
3. Albert Brooks (A Most Violent Year)
4. Robert Duvall (The Judge)
5. Edward Norton (Birdman)

6. Johnny Depp (Into the Woods)


Best Supporting Actress:

1. Meryl Streep (The Homesman)
2. Annette Benning (The Search)
3. Viola Davis (Get On Up)
4. Meryl Streep/ Emily Blunt (Into the Woods) ---->> depends on the placing
5. Kristin Scott Thomas (Suite Francaise)

6. Jessica Chastain (A Most Violent Year)


This is all I am offering for now. See you in some time. The next big stop: CANNES.


Burt Mizaki

The 2014 Final Oscar Predictions

THE FINAL OSCAR PREDICTIONS

      Here comes the weekend we have been waiting for. Since september people started frantically looking for possible outcomes. The frontrunners changed, the currents switched. Remember when "The Wolf of Wall Street" was in 1 place? When Leo and Marty were at the top of their categories? Well a lot has changed. We also had a couple solid months from 12 Years a Slave, Steve McQueen, Michael Fassbender and Chiwetel Ejiofor. The latter three slowly faded away, and made space for Cuaron, Leto and McConaughey, respectively. Only the Best Picture here seems to have been on the top since early fall. And that also is arguable as Gravity is getting on their backs. Whatever happens, good luck with your predictions, and I sincerely hope I do well. 

      Also it is amazing to notice that Cate Blanchett has been the frontrunner in her category for the last 8 months. Craaaazy. That doesn't happen very often. The McConaissance power charging for the Oscar only kicked in after the Golden Globes and the SAGs. INTERESTING trivia: The last 9 years the SAG best actor winner went on to win the Oscar. The last exception was SAG winner Johnny Depp (Pirates of the Caribbean) lost to Sean Penn (Mystic River).

    So who will win? I don't know. It is very frustrating because some categories aren't obvious at all. Last year I didn't guess Ang Lee winning Best Director, as I didn't guess Anna Karenina winning.

    So best of luck to everyone and let's get this baby started! 

NOTE: My final picks are in YELLOW. My crazy picks (what my hunch tells me will win, but I feel it would not be reasonable) are in GREEN. Some of them agree with the reasonable choice, but some of them are different. Also the OSCAR RACE leaderboard winners in PINK.

The 86th Academy Awards:

BEST PICTURE

RACE WINNER: 12 Years a Slave

MY CRAZY INSTINCT: 12 Years a Slave

WILL WIN: 12 Years a Slave

BEST DIRECTOR

RACE WINNER: Alfonso Cuaron (Gravity)

MY CRAZY INSTINCT: Alfonso Cuaron 

WILL WIN: Alfonso Cuaron 

BEST ACTOR

RACE WINNER: Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club)

MY CRAZY INSTINCT: Chiwetel Ejiofor (12 Years a Slave)

WILL WIN: Matthew McConaughey

BEST ACTRESS

RACE WINNER: Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine)

MY CRAZY INSTINCT: Cate Blanchett

WILL WIN: Cate Blanchett 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

RACE WINNER: Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club)

MY CRAZY INSTINCT: Jared Leto 

WILL WIN: Jared Leto

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

RACE WINNER: Lupita Nyong'o (12 Years a Slave)

MY CRAZY INSTINCT: Jennifer Lawrence (American Hustle)

WILL WIN: Lupita Nyong'o

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

RACE WINNER: Her (Spike Jonze)

MY CRAZY INSTINCT:  American Hustle (Eric Warren Singer & David O. Russel)

WILL WIN: Spike Jonze (Her)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

RACE WINNER: 12 Years a Slave (John Ridley)

MY CRAZY INSTINCT: 12 Years a Slave 

WILL WIN: 12 Years a Slave

BEST FILM EDITING

FRONTRUNNER: Gravity (Alfonso Cuaron & Mark Sanger)

MY CRAZY INSTINCT: Captain Phillips (Christopher Rouse)

WILL WIN: Captain Phillips

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

RACE WINNER: Gravity (Emmanuel Lubezki)

MY CRAZY INSTINCT: Gravity

WILL WIN: Gravity

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

RACE WINNER: Gravity (Steven Price)

MY CRAZY INSTINCT: Philomena (Alexandre Desplat)

WILL WIN: Gravity (Steven Price)

BEST PRODUCTON DESIGN

FRONTRUNNER: The Great Gatsby

MY CRAZY INSTINCT: 12 Years a Slave

WILL WIN: The Great Gatsby

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

FRONTRUNNER: The Great Gatsby

MY CRAZY INSTINCT: American Hustle

WILL WIN: 12 Years a Slave

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

FRONTRUNNER: Gravity

MY CRAZY INSTINCT: Gravity

WILL WIN: Gravity

BEST SOUND EDITING

FRONTRUNNER: Gravity

MY CRAZY INSTINCT: All Is Lost

WILL WIN: Gravity

BEST SOUND MIXING

FRONTRUNNER: Gravity

MY CRAZY INSTINCT: Gravity

WILL WIN: Gravity

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

FRONTRUNNER: Dallas Buyers Club

MY CRAZY INSTINCT: Dallas Buyers Club

WILL WIN: Dallas Buyers Club

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

FRONTRUNNER: "Let It Go"

MY CRAZY INSTINCT: "Let It Go"

WILL WIN: "Let It Go"

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

FRONTRUNNER: Frozen

MY CRAZY INSTINCT: Frozen

WILL WIN: Frozen

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

FRONTRUNNER: The Act of Killing

MY CRAZY INSTINCT: 20 Feet from Stardom

WILL WIN: 20 Feet from Stardom

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

FRONTRUNNER: The Great Beauty (Italy)

MY CRAZY INSTINCT:  The Hunt (Denmark)

WILL WIN: The Great Beauty (Italy)

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

FRONTRUNNER: Get a Horse!

MY CRAZY INSTINCT: Mr Hublot

WILL WIN: Get a Horse!

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

FRONTRUNNER: The Voorman Problem

MY CRAZY INSTINCT: Helium

WILL WIN: Helium

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

FRONTRUNNER: The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life

MY CRAZY INSTINCT: The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life

WILL WIN: The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life

PROJECTED WINS:

Gravity: 6

12 Years a Slave: 4

Dallas Buyers Club: 3

Burt Mizaki

Breakin' Down: Picture, Actors and Directors

    With time running out, I have to speed things up and break down four categories today. Two of them are still in play, and surprisingly the one that's the most open for a rivalry is Best Picture. So let's start with that.

    All the nominees obviously have a chance of winning, hence the title "nominee". But let's be honest, it's a two horse race. Three if you really think American Hustle has a chance. So for me it's down to 12 Years a Slave and Gravity, and I must say, I am not sure. On one side I hate predicting Picture/Director splits, and even more, twice in two years, but that's what I'm gonna do. I say 12 Years a Slave! Despite the fact that it has been reported that some Academy members refuse to watch it. I still believe that enough of them have the sense of what's right. I think the fact that Gravity's screenplay is poor, might do harm to the picture overall. And 12 Years a Slave seems like an important one. Will you really be saying in the future, that 2013's BP went to a movie about a woman floating in space trying to come back to Earth? All the precursors went with 12 Years a Slave, Golden Globes, BAFTAs, a PGA tie, BFCA. And what's also interesting is that the majority of BP winners have at least a nomination for the SAG Ensemble award, whereas Gravity didn't get there.

WHO DESERVES TO WIN: 12 Years a Slave
WHO WILL WIN: 12 Years a Slave


    Let's look at the men, who created some of these pictures. The Directors, what do they really do? As Michael Douglas mentioned, preparing to hand the award to Michel Hazanavicius in 2012, a director once came into a bank to get a loan for a movie. The banker asked: "You're a director? Tell me, what do you really do? The screenwriter writes the film, the editor obviously puts it together, the cameraman shoots the damn thing. So i ask again what does a director do?" The director stood there, thought for a moment, and then went to a different bank.
    So what do they do? The truth is that they put it all together, all the other mentioned people's work. They keep it working, they add their imagination, they decide how to shoot something, how the actors should act, it's what makes a film, a film. So what did these mysterious men come up with this year? Cuaron, McQueen, Russel, Payne and Scorsese. They all did a fine job. Cuaron did the impossible, he directed a film, only imagining the outcome, he thought of it in every detail. McQueen gave us a piece of art, a film that works thanks to his masterful sense of direction. Russel directed his American Hustle to a light and amusing picture, which has its interesting moments and the director's choices. Payne made a funny and nicely done film, where everything seems so amusingly subtle. Scorsese went all the way with a film that's an icebreaker. The speed of it, and the dynamics of his direction are truly unbelievable. Cuaron has won practically everything, even the Brit-favoring BAFTA. So where can it go? We can't really look at last year, where the frontrunner wasn't even nominated. But let's do nevertheless. It was Ang Lee, who hasn't won anything that year, so maybe there can be an upset from McQueen?

WHO DESERVES IT: Steve McQueen
WHO WILL WIN: Alfonso Cuaron


Let's take a look at both of the leading acting categories. The guys are pretty much down to three with one in the head of the rest. It's McConaughey and his McConaissance in the front, but looking back to see how far behind him are DiCaprio and Ejiofor. Not that far as it would seem. So who wins? McConaughey grabbed everything on the way so far, but he did NOT compete directly with DiCaprio yet. The latter missed out on the SAGs, and in most of the award shows, he is in a comedy category while McConaughey is in Drama. I still am sure that it's McConaughey's Oscar to lose, but they guys are close behind. Some people say that "True Detective" helps Matthew. But I think that it doesn't. And that is due to the fact that he is way better in the TV series. Which might make his Woodruff role look weaker. But it might no. Who knows? No one ever will.

WHO DESERVES IT: All three men - Leonardo DiCaprio, Matthew McConaughey, Chiwetel Ejiofor
WHO WILL WIN: Matthew McConaughey
WHO COULD WIN: I really wouldn't be that surprised if either of the others would win. But my moneys is on Matt, and Chiwetel in second place.


The ladies. It obviously has to go to Blanchett. She has won everything, and so she deserves it. She was phenomenal. They all were. Judi Dench was very good, actually the only one of the 5 that really convinced me to being her character. Sandra Bullock was also good, she did something very new. Meryl Streep is excellent, though many disagree, she was one of the best of the year. and Adams who also did a great job on American Hustle, and with 5 nominations is on the verge of joining the Glenn Close, 6nom/0win club. All of them were different. All of them were fantastic. All of them deserve to put up a fight for that win. Cate has the obvious lead having won so much, and being voted for before thought about. It's just something automatic this year, it obviously has to go to Cate, so they vote for her. If there wasn't so much buzz around her this year, would she still be the frontrunner? Or would it be the 1% possible spoiler, Amy Adams. Maybe Sandra Bullock, that is gaining attention. Maybe Streep? Although she has won two years ago, and I don't see her accepting her fourth Oscar so soon. Or maybe Dame Judi Dench? She might be given the Oscar as a sort of 'tipping the hat' for her original performance and wonderful career.

WHO DESERVES IT: Cate Blanchett & Judi Dench (But really all of them were great)
WHO WILL WIN: Cate Blanchett




My final predictions, I will put up tomorrow. I still need to decide on a few things. I gotta say the most difficult ones for me are Best Original Screenplay, Costume Design and Production Design. The leading actor also haunts me. So see you tomorrow, and good luck with your predictions.


Burt Mizaki

Breakin' down: Supporting Acting

     

BREAKING DOWN THE SUPPORTING ACTORS

   With 4 days to go, I have yet to post my final predictions. I will do so on Saturday. Right now I'm going to look closer into the supporting acting categories.
       First let's look at the ladies. Who do we have?

      Sally Hawkins in Blue Jasmine. She plays a cute and naive divorced mother. Through her terrible annoyance she is so interestingly charming and convincing. What is in her favor? Well she's definitely not the obvious choice, might be a vote of a member who is not really decided. I don't know what to say else in her favor, because she doesn't really stand a chance.
     Jennifer Lawrence in American Hustle. 14 times in history has a film been nominated in a all four acting categories before. And in all but two cases the film had at least one winner. That bodes well for the seemingly only hope for American Hustle. What is against her? Do we really think that she will pull off a consecutive win at 24? I mean, if they choose her, fine, but will they? Will a voter choose Lawrence to be his 24 year old two time Oscar winner? Having won more Oscars than Judi Dench, Bruce Dern, Glenn Close or Tommy Lee Jones? I wouldn't put my money on that, but if people think so, then maybe there's something to it.
     Lupita Nyong'o in 12 Years a Slave. First of all she is great in the movie. Second of all she is a charming person and is loved by everyone. And most of all, 12 Years a Slave might face a problem of winning BP, but not much besides that. So she might be a place to award the film. Very often in the last several years were black actresses awarded with this particular Oscar. She also won a S.A.G. which is often a good predictor of the eventual Oscar winner.
    Julia Roberts in August: Osage County. Well she has a problem. She certainly lost a lot of steam right before the voting began, and might not be a memorable contender at this point. In her defense, she plays an unexpectedly dark character and scares the hell out of the audience with her anger. I actually don't see this happening anymore, but we'll see.
    June Squibb in Nebraska. She is very funny in the movie, surprisingly vulgar and it's a performance that might just bring her the crowning of her career. We all love to see mature actors get the award, they are always so charming upstage. The video that June Squibb recorded "Meet the Nominees" for Jimmy Kimmel was hilarious, and itself deserves recognition. She hash;t won anything this season, but that might be a reason for the Academy to pull out a surprise rabbit out of the hat.

Also a very reliable website, PredictWise, gives Nyong'o 54% chance of winning, while Lawrence got 40%.

So here they are, all 5 of them. Who do I think will win? Who do I want to win? And who deserves to win? All different questions, and all ought to be answered.

WHO DESERVES IT: Lupita Nyong'o or June Squibb
WHO I AM ROOTING FOR: Lupita Nyong'o
WHO WILL WIN: Lupita Nyong'o


Now let's look at the guys.

    Barkhad Abdi in Captain Phillips. He seems to be the choice that would please everyone, as it did at the BAFTAs. Presenter Emma Thompson was pleasantly surprised to be allowed to read his name. He also is a stunning beginner, and gives a memorable performance. Why not him? They sometimes like to award actors who are in the business for some time already. But why not, it would be interesting.
    Bradley Cooper in American Hustle. For startes I'm not convinced he's the right person to be here. And secondly his performance is, in my, as well as a lot of other people's, opinion, the least deserving of the lot. He was nominated last year, and didn't stand a chance there against veteran Daniel Day-Lewis. So this year does he stand a chance? I say no, I just don't see it. The backlash would be enormous.
    Michael Fassbender in 12 Years a Slave. He is excellent in his role of a monster, a slave owner, a disgusting man. The fact that the film stands such a good chance of winning the big prize can prompt the voters to tick off his name. Against him? No campaigning, and his character is extremely hate able. He seems to be a possibility as does Abdi.
    Jonah Hill in The Wolf of Wall Street. To start with, for some (not me) he was a surprise nominee. He plays a funny character, a likable one. The problem is he hasn't been recognized for the role this year, apart from the nominations. Does he have a chance? Don't think so, the role isn't Oscar-ish enough.
    Jared Leto in Dallas Buyers Club. He is mesmerizing in his role as an AIDS diagnosed transgender named Rayon. He has won almost everything this season, and he seems like a good choice, the one that if he wins, no one will complain. What's against him? I don't really know, maybe it's the fact that he might seem like the most obvious choice, they might want to go with a surprise.

WHO DESERVES IT: Jared Leto
WHO I AM ROOTING FOR: Jared Leto & Michael Fassbender
WHO WILL WIN: Jared Leto


Coming back tomorrow ro break down the leading acting categories!!


Burt Mizaki

7 days to go!

    With only seven days left to the Oscars, I will post a breakdown for the major categories each day (hopefully), starting tomorrow. Now I will face a difficult challenge and predict all the feature film categories. There seem to be no room for surprises which just makes me think: Where are we wrong? There are ALWAYS some surprises! Some! Please!
    I will do my charts, and add a possible spoiler, that my hunch is telling me to mention, so in 8 days time I can say: I told you so, dammit!


   So here we go! Remember to look up the OSCAR RACE leaderboard page!

  ALL THE FEATURE FILM CATEGORIES!

BEST PICTURE
1. 12 Years a Slave (Steve McQueen)
2. Gravity (Alfonso Cuaron)
3. American Hustle (David O. Russel)
4. Philomena (Stephen Frears)
5. Dallas Buyers Club (Jean-Marc Vallee)
6. Captain Phillips (Paul Greengrass)
7. Her (Spike Jonze)
8. Nebraska (Alexander Payne)
9. The Wolf of Wall Street (Martin Scorsese)

Possible spoiler (a total surprise - thanks to the preferential vote): Dallas Buyers Club


BEST DIRECTOR
1. Alfonso Cuaron (Gravity)
2. Steve McQueen (12 Years a Slave)
3. David O. Russel (American Hustle)
4. Martin Scorsese (The Wolf of Wall Street)
5. Alexander Payne (Nebraska)

Possible spoiler (voters might attach him as a winner to their BP vote for the film) - Steve McQueen


BEST ACTOR
1. Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club)
2. Chiwetel Ejiofor (12 Years a Slave)
3. Leonardo DiCaprio (The Wolf of Wall Street)
4. Bruce Dern (Nebraska)
5. Christian Bale (American Hustle)

Possible spoiler (just because his performance is excellent and the best of his so far): Leonardo DiCaprio


BEST ACTRESS
1. Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine)
2. Amy Adams (American Hustle)
3. Judi Dench (Philomena)
4. Sandra Bullock (Gravity)
5. Meryl Streep (August: Osage County)

Possible spoiler (because she is lovely and most definitely deserves some recognition for her work, and who knows, maybe it's the last time she is nominated ;) ): Judi Dench


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1. Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club)
2. Michael Fassbender (12 Years a Slave)
3. Barkhad Abdi (Captain Phillips)
4. Jonah Hill (The Wolf of Wall Street)
5. Bradley Cooper (American Hustle)

Possible spoiler (because everyone would love to see him win): Barkhad Abdi



BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1. Lupita Nyong'o (12 Years a Slave)
2. Jennifer Lawrence (American Hustle)
3. June Squibb (Nebraska)
4. Sally Hawkins (Blue Jasmine)
5. Julia Roberts (August: Osage County)

Possible spoiler (for the same reason that Dench, she is also very good in the movie, and seems like a perfect way out of the Nyong'o - Lawrence clash down): June Squibb



BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1. Her (Spike Jonze)
2. American Hustle (Eric Warren Singer & David O. Russel)
3. Nebraska (Bob Nelson)
4. Dallas Buyers Club (Craig Borten & Melisa Wallack)
5. Blue Jasmine (Woody Allen)

Possible spoiler: American Hustle (seems like the only other way it could go)



BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1. 12 Years a Slave (John Ridley)
2. Philomena (Steve Coogan & Jeff Pope)
3. Captain Phillips (Billy Ray)
4. Before Midnight (Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke & Richard Linklater)
5. The Wolf of Wall Street (Terrence Winter)

Possible spoiler: Captain Phillips (might be the one to beat 12 Years a Slave & Philomena, won the WGA)



BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
1. Gravity (Emmanuel Lubezki)
2. Inside Llewyn Davis (Bruno Delbonnel)
3. Nebraska (Phedon Papamichael)
4. The Grandmaster (Phillipe Le Sourd)
5. Prisoners (Roger A. Deakins)

Possible spoiler: Nebraska (The black&white makes it look more artistic than it actually is, has interesting and static photography)



BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
1. Gravity (Steven Price)
2. Philomena (Alexandre Desplat)
3. Her (Arcade Fire)
4. Saving Mr. Banks (Thomas Newman)
5. The Book Thief (John Williams)

Possible spoiler: Philomena (A great soundtrack, Desplat is very overdue. Gravity might seem too populist)



BEST ORIGINAL SONG
1. "Let it Go" (Frozen)
2. "Ordinary Love" (Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom)
3. "Moon Song" (Her)
4. "Happy" (Despicable Me 2)

Possible spoiler: "Ordinary Love" (Seems the best song, and it won a Globe, definitely a deserving choice, also U2.)



BEST FILM EDITING
1. Captain Phillips (Christopher Rouse)
2. Gravity (Alfonso Cuaron & Mark Sanger)
3. 12 Years a Slave (Joe Walker)
4. American Hustle (Jay Cassidy, Crispin Struthers & Alan Baumgarten)
5. Dallas Buyers Club (Martin Pensa & John Mac Murphy) --> Murphy is Vallee's pseudonym

Possible spoiler: 12 Years a Slave (very brave editing, risky at times, might interest the voters with that)



BEST COSTUME DESIGN
1. The Great Gatsby (Catherine Martin)
2. American Hustle (Michael Wilkinson)
3. 12 Years a Slave (Patricia Norris)
4. The Invisible Woman (Michael O'Connor)
5. The Grandmaster (William Chang Suk Ping)

Possible spoiler: 12 Years a Slave (as the only obvious BP choice among these, it can attract voters' eyes as the one that they think should win. They don't necessarily have to know what they're doing. Tech branches voters mainly - a period film, a good won --> let's vote for that)



BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
1. The Great Gatsby   (Catherine Martin, Beverley Dunn)
2. Gravity   (Andy Nicholson, Rosie Goodwin & Joanne Woollard)
3. 12 Years a Slave   (Adam Stockhausen, Alice Baker)
4. Her   (K.K. Barett, Gene Serdena)
5. American Hustle   (Jude Becker, Heather Loeffler)

Possible spoiler: 12 Years a Slave (the same reason as above + it's simply a great production design)



BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
1. Frozen 
2. The Wind Rises 
3. Despicable Me 2
4. Ernest & Celestine
5. Croods

Possible spoiler: Ernest & Celestine (It's wonderful, a low budget small wonder that attracts with the fact that it is so amateur in comparison with the rest)



BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
1. Gravity   (Tim Webber, Chris Lawrence, David Shirk & Neil Corbould)
2. Star Trek Into Darkness   (Roger Guyett, Patrick Tubach, Ben Grossmann & Burt Dalton)
3. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug  (Joe Letteri, Eric Saindon, David Clayton & Eric Reynolds)
4. The Lone Ranger   (Tim Alexander, Gary Brozenich, Edson Williams & John Frazier)
5. Iron Man 3   (Christopher Townsend, Guy Williams, Erik Nash & Dan Sudick)

Possible spoiler: Gravity is a LOCK.

BEST SOUND EDITING

1. Gravity (Glenn Freemantle)

2. Captain Phillips (Oliver Tarney)

3. The Hobbit The Desolation of Smaug (Brent Burge & Chris Ward)

4. Lone Survivor (Wylie Stateman)

5. All Is Lost (Steve Boeddeker & Richard Hymns)

Possible spoiler: Captain Phillips (Like in film editing Captain Phillips might me the one to steal it from Gravity)

BEST SOUND MIXING

1. Gravity    (Skip Lievsay, Niv Adiri, Christopher Benstead & Chris Munro)

2. Captain Phillips    (Chris Burdon, Mark Taylor, Mike Prestwood Smith & Chris Munro)

3. Inside Llewyn Davis    (Skip Lievsay, Greg Orloff & Peter F. Kurland)

4. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug    (Christopher Boyes, Michael Hedges, Michael Semanick & Tony Johnson)

5. Lone Survivor    (Andy Koyama, Beau Borders & David Brownlow)

Possible spoiler (again): Captain Phillips

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

1. Dallas Buyers Club (Adruitha Lee & Robin Mathews)

2. Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa (Stephen Prouty)

3. The Lone Ranger (Joel Harlow & Gloria Pasqua-Casny)

Possible spoiler: Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa (as the Academy's prank)

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

1. The Great Beauty (Italy)

2. The Hunt (Denmark)

3. The Broken Circle Breakdown (Belgium)

4. Omar (Palestine)

5. The Missing Picture (Cambodia)

Possible spoiler: The Hunt

AND THAT'S FINALLY IT!   The 1st Oscar breakdown tomorrow! --> Best Supporting Actor.

Burt Mizaki

All the way!

   The voting has started, which means that the campaigning is going all the way now. Every trick they have, the distributors use to gain some momentum for their pictures. From what I heard and read Matthew McConaughey with Jared Leto are campaigning pretty heavily. Also DiCaprio with Scorsese are doing what they can.
   Now let's move to the BAFTAs. The were handed out yesterday, with a couple surprises. The mentioned McConaughey and Leto weren't nominated, I believe due to late release date in the UK. So that opened the field up. Also 12 Years a Slave was a big loser towards the end of the evening having lost the screenplay and supporting actress race. Yet they went out with two big awards, Best Film and Best Actor. That certainly helps the film in the battle against Gravity, as the latter only managed to pull off a Best British film award, as far as the Picture awards go. Well deserved I must say, but Lawrence for supporting actress? Only she didn't win last year, losing out to Emmanuelle RIva, so it's not a consecutive win, meaning that it doesn't prompt her chances much. The supporting actor however, hasn't seen Michael Fassbender winning the award. The presenter, Emma Thompson, was very pleasantly surprised to announce that the winner was Barkhad Abdi. 
     Remember the Oscar voting is underway, so the momentum really matters right NOW. So the BAFTAs are sort of a late christmas present, they very often are good predictors of the Osars. The Best Oscar race, they predicted correctly 7 out of the last 9 times. Which means it's in Ejiofor's favor. However McConaughey won the SAG, which I believe have an amazing record 9 out of the last 9 times. 
    Based on that let's move to the predictions.


BEST PICTURE
1. 12 Years a Slave (Steve McQueen)
2. Gravity (Alfonso Cuaron)
3. American Hustle (David O. Russel)
4. Philomena (Stephen Frears)
5. Dallas Buyers Club (Jean-Marc Vallee)
6. Her (Spike Jonze)
7. The Wolf of Wall Street (Martin Scorsese)
8. Captain Phillips (Paul Greengrass)
9. Nebraska (Alexander Payne)


BEST DIRECTOR
1. Alfonso Cuaron (Gravity)
2. Steve McQueen (12 Years a Slave)
3. David O. Russel (American Hustle)
4. Martin Scorsese (The Wolf of Wall Street)
5. Alexander Payne (Nebraska)


BEST ACTOR
1. Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club)
2. Chiwetel Ejiofor (12 Years a Slave)
3. Leonardo DiCaprio (The Wolf of Wall Street)
4. Bruce Dern (Nebraska)
5. Christian Bale (American Hustle)


BEST ACTRESS
1. Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine)
2. Amy Adams (American Hustle)
3. Judi Dench (Philomena)
4. Sandra Bullock (Gravity)
5. Meryl Streep (August: Osage County)


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1. Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club)
2. Barkhad Abdi (Captain Phillips)
3. Michael Fassbender (12 Years a Slave)
4. Bradley Cooper (American Hustle)
5. Jonah Hill (The Wolf of Wall Street)


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1. Lupita Nyong'o (12 Years a Slave)
2. Jennifer Lawrence (American Hustle)
3. June Squibb (Nebraska)
4. Sally Hawkins (Blue Jasmine)
5. Julia Roberts (August: Osage County)


BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1. Her (Spike Jonze)
2. American Hustle (Eric Warren Singer & David O. Russel)
3. Nebraska (Bob Nelson)
4. Dallas Buyers Club (Craig Borten & Melisa Wallack)
5. Blue Jasmine (Woody Allen)


BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1. 12 Years a Slave (John Ridley)
2. Philomena (Jeff Pope & Steve Coogan)
3. Captain Phillips (Billy Ray)
4. Before Midnight (Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy & Ethan Hawke)
5. The Wolf of Wall Street (Terrence Winter)


Thanks that's it for now, look up the OSCAR RACE leaderboard page!

Burt Mizaki