Only four days to go and the only precursors left are the below-the-line guilds and the Spirits on Saturday. Will the 4 acting winners repeat themselves on Oscar night like last year? That would require Michael Keaton taking the Oscar. I'm not predicting it to happen but I sure would like it too.
Remember in January 2012 when Meryl Streep was the frontrunner for the Oscar because it's a major biopic and she is so overdue (btw it's kind of amazing to reach a point in your career when you're a two time Oscar winner and be overdue. Congrats)? Then she beat Viola Davis at the Globes and solidified her status. But then she lost two major precursors in a row, the BFCA and, more importantly, the SAG. And Viola became the frontrunner. But then Meryl won the BAFTA and some thought it might be a sign. Most of the pundits, however, took it as rewarding a British figure biopic (the screenplay and supporting actor were nominated too). In the end almost all of them ended up predicting Viola Davis for the win. I however stayed with Meryl and it paid off. A similar scenario seems to be unfolding here with Michael Keaton and Eddie Redmayne. Although it was Keaton who took the BFCA and Redmayne who won the BAFTA, they switched places around the same time Streep and Davis had. Another difference is that people are actually cheering for Keaton here, whereas three years ago, Viola was the favorite. Both british figures were neglected by the American pundit society. This time one is the frontrunner. So I ask myself: Should I go back to Keaton?
The reason I probably went with Streep back then, was that I didn't follow the race too much, and wasn't all that aware that Davis was going to win. I just rooted for Streep because, well, one year someone had to wait for their turn for Streep to get her third Oscar. It's just a damn shame it wasn't Sandra Bullock in 2010. Good God Streep was great as Julia Child. And Bullock's presence among the nominees was arguably enough. If not too much. But back to why I predicted Streep. It was the unexpected virtue of ignorance, I guess.
What makes Keaton and Streep so close too? Their veterans. Such a win carries the weight of a whole career.
So who should I choose? Who will I choose? Who will be chosen?
I should choose Keaton, and I know it. I will probably go with Redmayne, but it kills me. Will be chosen? God damn it. Probably Redmayne, but if Keaton is, and I don't end up predicting him, I'm gonna go crazy probably. Is there any movie with Meryl Streep and Michael Keaton?
To relish on the sweet ignorance that rose my predictor's pride above others', I'll wait until Saturday, when I put up my final predictions. For now, I'll stay the boring predictor who just goes with the frontrunner. But hey, I might end up predicting Keaton. If they are giving Best Pic to Birdman, they might as well go all the way. And if I do predict him and Redmayne wins AND Boyhood takes top 2 prizes.... then I'm fucked. And this year will mark the worst prediction score of mine ever. It would be funny though, to get all the rest right.
Without further ado, here are my "4 days left" predictions:
BEST PICTURE:
1. Birdman (Alejandro G. Innaritu)
2. Boyhood (Richard Linklater)
3. The Grand Budapest Hotel (Wes Anderson)
4. The Imitation Game (Morten Tyldum)
5. Selma (Ava DuVernay)
6. American Sniper (Clint Eastwood)
7. Whiplash (Damien Chazelle)
8. The Theory of Everything (James Marsh)
BEST DIRECTOR:
1. Alejandro G. Innaritu (Birdman)
2. Richard Linklater (Boyhood)
3. Wes Anderson (The Grand Budapest Hotel)
4. Bennet Miller (Foxcatcher)
5. Morten Tyldum (The Imitation Game)
BEST ACTOR:
1. Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything)
2. Michael Keaton (Birdman)
3. Bradley Cooper (American Sniper)
4. Benedict Cumberbatch (The Imiation Game)
5. Steve Carell (Foxcatcher)
BEST ACTRESS:
1. Julianne Moore (Still Alice)
2. Rosamund Pike (Gone Girl)
3. Marion Cotillard (Two Days, One Night)
4. Reese Witherspoon (Wild)
5. Felicity Jones (The Theory of Everything)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
1. J.K. Simmons (Whiplash)
2. Edward Norton (Birdman)
3. Ethan Hawke (Boyhood)
4. Mark Ruffalo (Foxcatcher)
5. Robert Duvall (The Judge)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
1. Patricia Arquette (Boyhood)
2. Emma Stone (Birdman)
3. Keira Knightley (The Imitation Game)
4. Laura Dern (Wild)
5. Meryl Streep (Into the Woods)
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
1. The Grand Budapest Hotel
2. Birdman
3. Boyhood
4. Nightcrawler
5. Foxcatcher
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
1. Whiplash
2. The Imitation Game
3. Inherent Vice
4. American Sniper
5. The Theory of Everything
That's all for now. All the categories by Friday and finals on Saturday. This season flew by like a rocket, eh? Nothing boring about it now. It was for a moment though.
BURT mizaki
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