The big moment is here. The moment when couple months of work goes down the drain. We all worked to figure out the logic in al of this and for what? Did we get anything right? Is the Best Picture race really that close? Or was Birdman, or whoever ends up winning, supposed to win by a wide margin, so wide that it had no threats? We don't know what happens behind the scenes, we only get a small two (sometimes three) word hint at what the Academy thought. A single name. No numbers. We need to speculate, guess, predict. And we all have something to do, thankfully.
This is arguably the most exciting moment in a pundit's or blogger's "Oscar season". Deciding on who will win. We get to feel the masters of the Academy, because our predictions hold such power, that until the names are actually read out, whatever we predict is the winner for us. Then comes the ceremony. And all goes to hell. All of the work. We get it right, we get it wrong, we have to wait for another 12 months. The excitement level is so high (for some) that it might feel like an actual high. Then the bubble bursts and the anticipation grows slowly for 12 months. Of course we get to live our lives in the meantime, but if you look at the calendar shutting life out, and counting the movie days, the premiers and awards.
A whole year lead up to this, and I am ready to screw up and go down below 20 correct. Last year I scored a good 21 out of 24, but to my unfortunate surprise I found out that I was among the 90% of predictors to get that exact score. But 2013 was a year that saw no upsets. All the frontrunners won and I got 2 wrong just because I predicted a surprise. This year, however, is a completely different story. There are so many uncertain categories that the predictions below probably went through a lot of editing before finally being published.
And I have waited a long time to see a Best Picture race like this. Thank you for the guilds! And director too! And actor! And screenplays! And sound! And editing! Thank you! I'll probably tai that back if I get all those wrong. Anyways predicting this year has been a privilege with the highlight of my accuracy being the 4th best user on Gold Derby to predict the Golden Globe nominees. Oh shut up and let me enjoy my little success. Baby steps.
Also I would like to say that preceding the Oscar ceremony I will post the 2nd Burt Awards along with my Top 10 of the Year 2014.
Here are my final (!) predictions for this year. Let's take a look (and by let's I mean me too, because I have no idea what I'm gonna write in as winners):
BEST PICTURE:
Will win: Birdman
Could win: Boyhood
My 'Oscar Race' winner: Boyhood
Should win: Birdman
Should have been here: Gone Girl
BEST DIRECTOR:
Will win: Alejandro G. Innaritu (Birdman)
Could win: Richard Linklater (Boyhood)
My 'Oscar Race' winner: Richard Linklater
Should win: Alejandro G. Innaritu
Should have been here: Ava DuVernay (Selma)
BEST ACTOR:
Will win: Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything)
Could win: Michael Keaton (Birdman)
My 'Oscar Race' winner: A tie between those two
Should win: Michael Keaton (Birdman)
Should have been nominated: Jake Gylenhaal (Nightcrawler)
BEST ACTRESS:
Will win: Julianne Moore (Still Alice)
Could win: Rosamund Pike (Gone Girl)
My 'Oscar Race' winner: Julianne Moore
Should win: Rosamund Pike (Gone Girl)
Should have been nominated: Jennifer Aniston (Cake)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Will win: J.K. Simmons (Whiplash)
Could win: Edward Norton (Birdman)
My 'Oscar Race' winner: J.K. Simmons
Should win: Both are worthy
Should have been nominated: Josh Brolin (Inherent Vice)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Will win: Patricia Arquette (Boyhood)
Could win: Emma Stone (Birdman)
My 'Oscar Race' winner: Patricia Arquette
Should win: Both are worthy
Should have been nominated: Rene Russo (Nightcrawler)
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
Will win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Could win: Birdman
My 'Oscar Race' winner: Birdman
Should win: Again, both, but really all of them (Foxcatcher maybe the least for me)
Should have been nominated: Selma
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
Will win: Whiplash
Could win: The Imitation Game
My 'Oscar Race' winner: The Imitation Game
Should win: Whiplash or Inherent Vice
Should have been nominated: Gone Girl
BEST FILM EDITING:
Will win: Boyhood
Could win: Whiplash
Should win: Whiplash
Should have been nominated: Edge of Tomorrow
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY:
Will win: Birdman (Emmanuel Lubezki)
Could win: Ida (Lukasz Zal & Ryszard Lenczewski)
My 'Oscar Race' winner: Birdman
Should win: Birdman, Ida or Mr. Turner
Should have been nominated: Selma
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE:
Will win: The Theory of Everything (Johann Johannsson)
Could win: The Grand Budapest Hotel (Alexandre Desplat)
My 'Oscar Race' winner: The Theory of Everything
Should win: Interstellar (Hans Zimmer)
Should have been nominated: Birdman
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM:
Will win: Ida (Poland)
Could win: Leviathan (Russia)
Should win: Ida
Should have been nominated: Two Days, One Night
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN:
Will win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Could win: Mr. Turner
Should win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Should have been nominated: Birdman
BEST COSTUME DESIGN:
Will win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Could win: Into the Woods
Should win: Into the Woods
BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING:
Will win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Could win: Guardians of the Galaxy
Should win: Both are worthy
Should have been nominated: Into the Woods
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS:
Will win: Interstellar
Could win: Guardians of the Galaxy
Should win: Interstellar
Should have been nominated: Edge of Tomorrow
BEST SOUND MIXING:
Will win: Whiplash
Could win: American Sniper
Should win: Birdman
BEST SOUND EDITING:
Will win: American Sniper
Could win: Birdman
Should win: Birdman
Should have been nominated: Whiplash
BEST ORIGINAL SONG:
Will win: "Glory" from Selma
Could win: "I'm Not Gonna Miss You" from Glen Campbell... I'll Be Me
Should win: "Glory"
Should have been nominated: "Yellow Flicker Beat"
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE:
Will win: Citizenfour
Could win: Virunga
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE:
Will win: How to Train Your Dragon 2
Could win: Big Hero 6
Should have been nominated: The LEGO Movie
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT:
Will win: Parvaneh
Could win: The Phone Call
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT:
Will win: Crisis Hotline Vets: Press 1
Could win: Joanna
BEST ANIMATED SHORT:
Will win: Feast
Could win: The Dam Keeper
So that's it! Some of them are ballsy, but hey it's an unpredictable year, the most unpredictable in my Oscar watching career. Good luck with your predictions and have a nice Oscar Sunday!
See you tomorrow for the 2nd Burt Awards.
Burt MIZAKI
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